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Motion-blurred skater in a Washington Capitals sweater
← Sat, Sep 26 · the slate
Breakdown · WSH at PHI · Preseason

C. Lindgren stands tall as the Capitals edge the Flyers

FinalSat, Sep 26
WSHWashington Capitals5PHIPhiladelphia Flyers1
The verdict · stolen

The Capitals stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.02–5.69 and won anyway.

WSH 5 · PHI 1
Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 27, 12:12 AMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Washington won 5–1 at Philadelphia, stealing a game it had no right to win. The Flyers controlled possession, created chances, and left empty-handed. C. Lindgren saved this game — 32 stops on 33 shots, 4.08 goals better than expected.

Philadelphia held 65% of expected goals — 5.69 to Washington's 3.02 — and lost 5–1. The scoreboard and the underlying play diverged spectacularly. Finishing decided this game.

A. Kolosov, facing 24 shots, let in five — 1.98 goals worse than his workload should have cost. The Flyers' eight high-danger chances converted to nothing. That futility won't repeat.

Washington was lethal off the rush. The Capitals scored five goals on 19 transition chances — an unforgiving counterattack rate. A. Cristall's backhander from five feet at 4:32 of the second came four seconds after S. Smallman's takeaway. E. Frank's power-play snap shot from 24 feet at 12:24 of the second followed another S. Smallman faceoff win. When the puck left Philadelphia's possession, Washington finished.

Philadelphia threw 41 shot attempts at Washington on the rush. Lindgren permitted one goal across all of it. L. Lakovic's snap shot from 12 feet at 16:06 of the third sealed it — five seconds after D. Jiricek's turnover — by which point the outcome was already decided. The Capitals won the game they weren't supposed to win because one goalie decided the terms.

Three Stars

  • A. Cristall (Washington) — 1 goal, 1 assist
  • J. Drysdale (Philadelphia) — 1 goal
  • L. Belpedio (Washington) — 1 assist

The goals

  • PHI 0–1, 00:31 of the second. J. Drysdale, wrist shot from 34 feet, an 11% chance by the model (off the rush), past C. Lindgren. Assists: T. Konecny, T. Foerster. Win probability moved 18 points.
  • WSH 1–1, 04:32 of the second. A. Cristall, backhander from 5 feet, a 32% chance by the model (off the rush), past A. Kolosov. Assists: S. Smallman. 4 seconds after a WSH takeaway by S. Smallman. Win probability moved 19 points.
  • WSH 2–1, 07:36 of the second. M. Schafer, snap shot from 32 feet, a 12% chance by the model (off the rush), past A. Kolosov. 2 seconds after a PHI giveaway by N. Seeler. Win probability moved 21 points.
  • WSH 3–1, 12:24 of the second on the power play. E. Frank, snap shot from 24 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past A. Kolosov. Assists: L. Belpedio, A. Cristall. 8 seconds after a WSH faceoff win by S. Smallman. Win probability moved 16 points.
  • WSH 4–1, 01:07 of the third. T. Niederbach, snap shot from 41 feet, a 4% chance by the model (off the rush), past A. Kolosov. Win probability moved 7 points.
  • WSH 5–1, 16:06 of the third. L. Lakovic, snap shot from 12 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past A. Kolosov. Assists: A. Suzdalev, P. Sikora. 5 seconds after a PHI giveaway by D. Jiricek.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Preseason · Sep 26
WSH
5
PHI
1

C. Lindgren stands tall as the Capitals edge the Flyers

Chances 3.0 – 5.7Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Flyers deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
WSH
3.02
PHI
5.69
35% of the chances65%

The board read WSH 5, PHI 1. The chances read WSH 3.0, PHI 5.7.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
WSH
+2.0
goals above expected
WSH3.02 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored
PHI5.69 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Capitals scored 2.0 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
The swing
+21
win-probability points
47% → 68% for WSH
PHI 100%the game, start to finish
WSH 100%P1 · P2 · P3
WSHP2 07:36

M. Schafer makes it 2–1.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games
Every goal, in order
  1. P2 00:31PHIJ. Drysdale11%0–1
  2. P2 04:32WSHA. Cristall32%1–1
  3. P2 07:36WSHM. Schafer12%2–1
  4. P2 12:24WSHE. FrankPP14%3–1
  5. P3 01:07WSHT. Niederbach4%4–1
  6. P3 16:06WSHL. Lakovic14%5–1
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
WSH
37 shots
5
Final
100 shots
PHI
63 shots
1
WSH attackPHI attack
WSH PHI Goal
37
shots · 5 in
63
shots · 1 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
WSHPHI
1 / 5
1.20 xG
High danger
0 / 8
1.85 xG
3 / 11
1.30 xG
Medium
1 / 29
3.23 xG
1 / 30
0.52 xG
Low
0 / 46
0.62 xG

The Flyers went 0 for 8 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
C. Lindgren
+3.7
WSH · 32/33 · 40:00
Best save · a 32% chance, backhand from 6 ft · P2 16:29
B+
C. Petersen
+1.0
WSH · 4/4 · 20:00 · in relief
Best save · a 26% chance, snap from 16 ft · P3 13:39
+1 more on the full breakdown
Best skater on the ice
A+
WSH
A. Cristall
L · impact 1.83
16:04
Ice time
1–1
G – A
0.48
Own xG
51%
xG share
Impact · top 4
A. Cristall1.8A+
T. Konecny1.7A+
L. Lakovic1.7A+
J. Drysdale1.6A
Report card
WSHPHI
OffenseBA+
DefenseFD
TransitionFA+
Special teamsC+D
GoaltendingA+F
DisciplineCC
LuckA+F
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why WSH won
  1. 01C. Lindgren stole it
  2. 02Dangerous off the rush
  3. 03Won against the run of play
Why PHI lost
  1. 01Cold finishing night
  2. 02Rush defense leaked all night
  3. 03Deserved a better fate
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

C. Lindgren stands tall as the Capitals edge the Flyers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 12 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 5–13no goals
    2ndshots 8–20
    1. 00:31PHIJ. Drysdale(T. Konecny, T. Foerster)0–1

      Wrist shot from 34 feet, an 11% chance (off the rush), past C. Lindgren. Win probability moved 18 points.On the ice: R. Ristolainen, T. Sanheim, C. Dvorak, A. Bump, M. Michkov · against T. Niederbach, R. Chesley, I. Miroshnichenko, T. Parascak, L. Muggli

    2. 04:32WSHA. Cristall(S. Smallman)1–1

      Backhander from 5 feet, a 32% chance (off the rush), past A. Kolosov. 4s after a WSH takeaway by S. Smallman. Win probability moved 19 points.On the ice: T. Niederbach, I. Miroshnichenko, C. Allen, J. McDonald, T. Parascak · against O. Tippett, T. Zegras, C. York, J. Drysdale, P. Martone

    3. 07:36WSHM. Schafer2–1

      Snap shot from 32 feet, a 12% chance (off the rush), past A. Kolosov. 2s after a PHI giveaway by N. Seeler. Win probability moved 21 points.On the ice: S. Smallman, R. Chesley, E. Frank, A. Cristall, L. Muggli · against C. Dvorak, C. York, J. Drysdale, A. Bump, M. Michkov

    4. 12:24WSHE. Frankpower play(L. Belpedio, A. Cristall)3–1

      Snap shot from 24 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past A. Kolosov. 8s after a WSH faceoff win by S. Smallman. Win probability moved 16 points.On the ice: I. Miroshnichenko, C. Allen, J. McDonald, P. Sikora, L. Lakovic · against R. Ristolainen, T. Sanheim, T. Konecny, N. Cates, T. Foerster

    3rdshots 11–4
    1. 01:07WSHT. Niederbach4–1

      Snap shot from 41 feet, a 4% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past A. Kolosov. Win probability moved 7 points.On the ice: C. Petersen, A. Suzdalev, C. Allen, J. McDonald, P. Sikora, L. Lakovic · against T. Sanheim, O. Tippett, T. Zegras, J. Drysdale, P. Martone

    2. 16:06WSHL. Lakovic(A. Suzdalev, P. Sikora)5–1

      Snap shot from 12 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past A. Kolosov. 5s after a PHI giveaway by D. Jiricek.On the ice: C. Petersen, R. Chesley, A. Suzdalev, L. Muggli, P. Sikora, L. Lakovic · against N. Seeler, T. Sanheim, T. Konecny, N. Cates, T. Foerster

    score reads WSH–PHI

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    3.02
    WSH chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    +2.0
    Finishing
    Goals above what those chances were worth
    1.097
    WSH puck luck
    Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
    35.7%
    Shot attempts
    Under half — they were outshot
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    3.02Expected goals5.69
    PHI 65% of the chance quality
    24Shots on goal37
    5High-danger chances8
    46All attempts (Corsi)83
    Adjusted for score: WSH 32% · PHI 68%
    Faceoffs · PHI won56%off63%neu57%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    WSH1 / 5 · 1.20 xG
    PHI0 / 8 · 1.85 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    WSH3 / 11 · 1.30 xG
    PHI1 / 29 · 3.23 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    WSH1 / 30 · 0.52 xG
    PHI0 / 46 · 0.62 xG

    PHI went 1-for-29 from medium danger on 3.23 expected goals — 2.2 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    WSH
    5 G · 3.02 xG · +2.0
    PHI
    1 G · 5.69 xG · -4.7
    0123456

    WSH finished +2.0 against expected, PHI -4.7.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    WSH
    SNAP4/23
    WRIST0/7
    SLAP0/4
    TIP IN0/2
    BACKHAND1/1
    WRAP AROUND0/0
    CRADLE0/0
    OTHER0/9
    PHI
    SNAP0/28
    WRIST1/16
    SLAP0/7
    TIP IN0/4
    BACKHAND0/4
    WRAP AROUND0/3
    CRADLE0/1
    OTHER0/20
    WSH
    PHI
    Off the rush
    5 G on 19
    2.22 xG
    1 G on 41
    4.53 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 4
    0.50 xG
    0 G on 5
    0.52 xG

    Snap shots carried the volume: WSH went 4-for-23, PHI 0-for-28. WSH scored 5 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    C. Petersen
    WSH · 4/4 · 1.000
    in relief · 20:00
    +1.0
    saved above expected
    B+
    the night
    Attempts faced
    10
    Avg chance faced
    9.6%
    Stopped vs expected
    1.000 vs 0.904
    Rebounds allowed
    0
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/20.5+0.5
    Medium0/30.4+0.4
    Low0/50.1+0.1
    Tips & deflections0/10.0+0.0
    The save
    26% chance stopped, a snap from 16 ft · P3 13:39

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    C. Lindgren
    WSH · 32/33 · .970
    started · 40:00 · win
    +3.7
    saved above expected
    A+
    the night
    Attempts faced
    53
    Avg chance faced
    8.9%
    Stopped vs expected
    0.981 vs 0.911
    Rebounds allowed
    5
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/61.4+1.4
    Medium1/262.9+1.9
    Low0/210.5+0.5
    Shorthanded0/131.4+1.4
    Tips & deflections0/30.2+0.2
    The save
    32% chance stopped, a backhand from 6 ft · P2 16:29
    The one to have back
    11% chance went in, a wrist from 34 ft · P2 00:31

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    A. Kolosov
    PHI · 19/24 · .792
    started · 60:00 · loss
    -2.0
    saved above expected
    F
    the night
    Attempts faced
    37
    Avg chance faced
    8.2%
    Stopped vs expected
    0.865 vs 0.918
    Rebounds allowed
    4
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/51.2+0.2
    Medium3/111.3-1.7
    Low1/210.5-0.5
    Shorthanded1/50.5-0.5
    Tips & deflections0/20.1+0.1
    The save
    32% chance stopped, a snap from 10 ft · P3 05:10
    The one to have back
    4% chance went in, a snap from 41 ft · P3 01:07

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    Every skater who dressed

    Who played

    Rated on what they produced and how fast

    Best skater on the ice by our rating: A. Cristall (WSH), 16:04 of ice, 1-1, 51% of the expected goals while he was out.

    WSH18 skaters
    SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
    A. CristallL16:041-151A+
    L. LakovicL15:341-067A+
    T. NiederbachC14:261-032B
    A. SuzdalevL9:260-143B
    E. FrankR17:471-040B
    M. SchaferL10:541-023C
    S. SmallmanR19:020-138C
    P. SikoraC14:470-140C
    I. MiroshnichenkoL15:270-050C
    L. BelpedioD19:540-126D
    C. AllenD21:390-045D
    T. ParascakR13:140-030D
    R. ChesleyD21:370-030D
    E. MateikoL14:340-014F
    J. McDonaldD18:060-036F
    T. KopffC15:010-015F
    L. MuggliD18:090-027F
    D. GucciardiD16:190-019F
    PHI18 skaters
    SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
    T. KonecnyR14:500-180A+
    J. DrysdaleD22:371-063A
    N. CatesL14:470-067A
    T. FoersterR17:550-168A
    O. TippettR17:120-074A
    R. RistolainenD18:090-068A
    P. MartoneR15:240-076B
    M. MichkovR18:040-065B
    N. AcciariC12:510-072B
    T. ZegrasC18:150-061B
    G. WilsonL10:370-076C
    T. SanheimD22:270-063C
    S. CouturierC14:170-072C
    C. YorkD19:560-066C
    D.JiricekD15:200-069D
    A. BumpL14:450-048D
    C. DvorakC12:340-048D
    N. SeelerD13:520-041D

    xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

    Scratched, WSH: A. Ovechkin, J. Holl, D. McIlrath, B. Jenner, T. Wilson, J. Brodzinski and 33 more. Scratched, PHI: D. Vladar, M. Tomek, C. Grundstrom, J. Woll, S. Benoit, A. Perrott and 23 more. Referees Francis Charron and Beau Halkidis; linesmen Onni Hautamaeki and Dan Kelly.

    Graded against a league-average game

    Report card

    Seven dimensions · A+ to F
    DimensionWSHPHI
    Offense
    ▸Basis

    WSH Created 3.02 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (1.20 xG) and 19 rush shots (2.22 xG).

    PHI Created 5.69 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 8 high-danger shots (1.85 xG) and 41 rush shots (4.53 xG).

    B
    85
    A+
    100
    Defense
    ▸Basis

    WSH Allowed 5.69 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 8 high-danger shots (1.85 xG) and 41 rush shots (4.53 xG).

    PHI Allowed 3.02 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (1.20 xG) and 19 rush shots (2.22 xG).

    F
    27
    D
    65
    Transition
    ▸Basis

    WSH Rush shots 19–41, rush xG 2.22–4.53 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

    PHI Rush shots 41–19, rush xG 4.53–2.22 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

    F
    41
    A+
    100
    Special teams
    ▸Basis

    WSH 1-for-4 on the power play (25%; league ≈21%) with 0.49 PP xG.

    PHI 0-for-3 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 1.38 PP xG.

    C+
    78
    D
    66
    Goaltending
    ▸Basis

    WSH +4.69 goals saved above expected on 37 shots against.

    PHI -1.98 goals saved above expected on 24 shots against.

    A+
    100
    F
    55
    Discipline
    ▸Basis

    WSH Took 5 penalties for 12 PIM vs 6 for 12 on the other side.

    PHI Took 6 penalties for 12 PIM vs 5 for 12 on the other side.

    C
    75
    C
    75
    Luck

    Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

    ▸Basis

    WSH Finishing +1.98 goals vs xG plus +4.69 GSAx of save luck = +6.67 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

    PHI Finishing -4.69 goals vs xG plus -1.98 GSAx of save luck = -6.67 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

    A+
    100
    F
    22
    Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
    What the model flagged
    STRENGTHWSH

    C. Lindgren stole it

    C. Lindgren stopped 32 of 33 (0.970) — +4.08 goals saved above expected in a 4-goal game.

    WARNINGWSH

    Rush defense leaked all night

    Gave up 41 rush shots worth 4.53 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

    Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

    LUCKPHI

    Cold finishing night

    Scored 1 on 5.69 xG — -4.69 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.

    WARNINGPHI

    Rush defense leaked all night

    Gave up 19 rush shots worth 2.22 xG (5 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

    Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

    STRENGTHPHI

    Dangerous off the rush

    1 goals on 41 rush shots worth 4.53 xG.

    STRENGTHWSH

    Dangerous off the rush

    5 goals on 19 rush shots worth 2.22 xG.

    100 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    WSH
    37 shots
    5
    Final
    100 shots
    PHI
    63 shots
    1
    WSH attackPHI attack
    WSH PHI Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — WSH left, PHI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    A. Cristall
    #28 · L · WSH
    1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 16:04 on ice
    J. Drysdale
    #9 · D · PHI
    1 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 22:37 on ice · +1
    L. Belpedio
    #50 · D · WSH
    0 G · 1 A · 0 SOG · 19:54 on ice · -1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Sat, Sep 26
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Model draft
    Preseason · exhibition

    Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The rates below are last season's; this exhibition will not count toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

    ◆ By the ModelSep 26, 2:36 PMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model projects a WSH 3.0 - 3.3 PHI game with the Flyers at 55% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

    Keys to the game

    • Charlie Lindgren has leaked goals all season. Charlie Lindgren: -9.4 GSAx over 21 games.
    • Tom Wilson drives the Capitals offense. Tom Wilson: 17G 32A, 1.11 xG/60, 14 high-danger goals.
    • Shutdown Assignment: Flyers. Highest individual xG/60 on WSH. Gets 43 HD shots. Limit slot access.

    Season 5v5 Numbers

    MetricWSHPHI
    xG%49.6%52.1%
    Corsi%49.5%47.6%
    PDO1.0181.008

    Rates from 2025-26 — the 2026-27 sample isn't live yet.

    Regression Watch

    • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

    Goaltending Matchup

    • Goalie matchup: L. Thompson (+33.8 GSAx in 58 GP, 91.2% SV) vs J. Woll.
    • L. Thompson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.

    Players to Watch

    WSH

    • Tom Wilson — 1.11 xG/60, 17G 32A, 14 HD goals, 11.1% shooting
    • Ryan Leonard — 1.00 xG/60, 16G 25A, 3 HD goals, 10.5% shooting

    PHI

    • Travis Konecny — 0.97 xG/60, 20G 41A, 10 HD goals, 11.9% shooting
    • Matvei Michkov — 0.95 xG/60, 12G 31A, 9 HD goals, 7.4% shooting

    Key Matchups

    WSH

    • Key matchup: Neutralize Tom Wilson (17G, 1.11 xG/60, 14 HD goals)
    • Watch Ryan Leonard (16G, 10.5% shooting)

    PHI

    • Watch Travis Konecny (20G, 11.9% shooting)
    • PHI scores 55% of goals from HD — collapse and protect the slot

    Tactical Notes

    • WSH: 0% HD goal rate, 0% rebound goal rate
    • WSH defensive weak link: Ryan Leonard
    • PHI: 1% HD goal rate, 0% rebound goal rate
    • PHI defensive weak link: Christian Dvorak

    Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    PHI 55%
    55%
    PHI
    Model favorite
    45%
    55%
    WSH50PHI

    PHI by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score WSH 3.0–3.3 PHI; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    WSH← edge
    edge →PHI
    49.6%52.1%
    49.5%47.6%
    3.233.05
    3.292.80
    3.182.93
    2.902.91
    1.0181.008

    WSH holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.018 vs 1.008) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · No games yet
    WSH
    0-0-0
    +0 GD · 0d rest
    PHI
    0-0-0
    +0 GD · 0d rest
    1.018
    WSH PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    1.008
    PHI PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    WARNINGWSH

    L. Thompson on a back-to-back

    L. Thompson projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.

    Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.

    TACTICALPHI

    Shutdown Assignment: Flyers

    Highest individual xG/60 on WSH. Gets 43 HD shots. Limit slot access.

    Key matchup: Neutralize Tom Wilson (17G, 1.11 xG/60, 14 HD goals)

    STRENGTHWSH

    Tom Wilson drives the Capitals offense

    Tom Wilson: 17G 32A, 1.11 xG/60, 14 high-danger goals.

    WARNINGWSH

    Exploitable minutes: Ryan Leonard

    Ryan Leonard is on ice for 2.40 xGA/60 and 92 high-danger shots against this season.

    Hunt matchups against Ryan Leonard's shifts with the top line.

    Regression watch
    • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Things to watch
    • Goalie matchup: L. Thompson (+33.8 GSAx in 58 GP, 91.2% SV) vs J. Woll.
    • L. Thompson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    WSH
    preseason · vs BOS · Fri, Sep 25
    Expected in goal
    L. Thompson
    back-to-back.909 last start59:53 played
    Backup Charlie Lindgren · -9.4 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
    Forwards · 12
    • R. Leonard14:47
    • D. Strome16:58
    • A. Protas15:17
    • B. Jenner14:12
    • J. Kyrou16:54
    • J. Sourdif13:01
    • T. Wilson18:07
    • E. Frank11:30
    • I. Protas14:53
    • A. Beauvillier12:56
    • P. Dubois16:17
    • A. Tuch14:54
    Defence · 6
    • M. Roy22:19
    • J. Chychrun24:21
    • T. Liljegren17:11
    • M. Fehérváry16:55
    • C. Hutson16:55
    • V. Desharnais18:02
    PHI
    preseason · vs BOS · Thu, Sep 24
    Expected in goal
    J. Woll
    1 day rest1.000 last start60:00 played
    Backup Dan Vladar · +6.2 GSAx this season
    Forwards · 12
    • T. Konecny15:06
    • S. Couturier16:50
    • N. Grebenkin12:40
    • C. Dvorak16:27
    • M. Michkov18:16
    • T. Zegras18:30
    • N. Acciari14:32
    • C. Knuble10:43
    • T. Foerster17:11
    • J. Luchanko10:18
    • J. Gaucher10:39
    • P. Martone16:13
    Defence · 6
    • H. Grans01:29
    • T. Sanheim26:47
    • C. York24:23
    • J. Drysdale22:34
    • S. Benoit17:16
    • R. Ristolainen24:06

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    WSH
    Tom Wilson17G 32A
    1.11 xG/60 · 14 HD · 11.1% sh
    Ryan Leonard16G 25A
    1.00 xG/60 · 3 HD · 10.5% sh
    PHI
    Travis Konecny20G 41A
    0.97 xG/60 · 10 HD · 11.9% sh
    Matvei Michkov12G 31A
    0.95 xG/60 · 9 HD · 7.4% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

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