Motion-blurred skater in a Tampa Bay Lightning sweater

Breakdown · TBL at FLA · Preseason

Lightning edge the Panthers in a shootout

Final / OTSat, Sep 26

TBLTampa Bay Lightning3 FLAFlorida Panthers2

The verdict · coin flip

The Lightning won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

TBL 3 · FLA 2

Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 27, 12:14 AMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Tampa Bay won 3-2 in a shootout. The Panthers had the better overall game, but the Lightning won where it mattered—on the rush and in sudden death.

The Panthers posted 2.20 expected goals to the Lightning's 2.10, a slight edge. Tampa Bay was lethal on the rush: 2 goals on 14 chances. The Panthers generated 3 rebound opportunities and finished none of them. D. Hildeby made 20 saves on 22 shots for the Lightning; A. Schmid made 20 on 22 for Florida. Both finished with a 0.909 save percentage.

L. Mercuri opened the scoring at 08:50 of the first with a 14% chance off the rush. S. Vilmanis tied it at 17:58 with a 7% chance from 31 feet, also off the rush. M. Shuravin made it 1-2 at 02:03 of the second with a 4% chance. B. Rautiainen answered on the power play at 12:58 of the third with a 22% chance from 7 feet, assisted by C. Geekie. Rautiainen's shootout goal decided it.

The Lightning overperformed their expected goals by 0.90 goals, the margin between a close game and this finish.

The goals

TBL 1–0, 08:50 of the first. L. Mercuri, snap shot from 14 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past A. Schmid. Assists: N. Abruzzese, J. Viel. Win probability moved 16 points.
FLA 1–1, 17:58 of the first. S. Vilmanis, wrist shot from 31 feet, a 7% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Hildeby. Assists: K. Schwindt. Win probability moved 18 points.
FLA 1–2, 02:03 of the second. M. Shuravin, wrist shot from 52 feet, a 4% chance by the model, past D. Hildeby. Assists: G. Sawchyn, M. Hovorka. 9 seconds after a FLA blocked shot by M. Pietroniro. Win probability moved 18 points.
TBL 2–2, 12:58 of the third on the power play. B. Rautiainen, wrist shot from 7 feet, a 22% chance by the model (off the rush), past A. Schmid. Assists: G. Goncalves, C. Geekie. Win probability moved 34 points.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · SO · Preseason · Sep 26

TBL

FLA

Lightning edge the Panthers in a shootout

Chances 2.1 – 2.2Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Lightning took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value

TBL

2.10

FLA

2.20

49% of the chances51%

The board read TBL 3, FLA 2. The chances read TBL 2.1, FLA 2.2.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

TBL

+0.9

goals above expected

TBL2.10 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

FLA2.20 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

The swing

+34

win-probability points

14% → 48% for TBL

FLA 100%the game, start to finish

TBL 100%P1 · P2 · P3

TBLP3 12:58 · PP

B. Rautiainen makes it 2–2.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games

Every goal, in order

P1 08:50TBLL. Mercuri14%1–0
P1 17:58FLAS. Vilmanis7%1–1
P2 02:03FLAM. Shuravin4%1–2
P3 12:58TBLB. RautiainenPP22%2–2
SO 00:00FLAS. VilmanisPP2–2
SO 00:00TBLP. HolmbergPP2–2
SO 00:00TBLB. RautiainenPP2–2

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

TBL

28 shots

Final

61 shots

FLA

33 shots

TBL FLA GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

shots · 2 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

TBLFLA

1 / 4

0.80 xG

High danger

0 / 1

0.20 xG

1 / 10

1.09 xG

Medium

1 / 17

1.67 xG

0 / 25

0.21 xG

Low

1 / 24

0.33 xG

High-danger looks: TBL 1 of 4, FLA 0 of 1.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

D. Hildeby

+0.2

TBL · 20/22 · 64:40

Best save · a 20% chance, wrist from 14 ft · P4 00:44

A. Schmid

+0.1

FLA · 20/22 · 64:42

Best save · a 20% chance, wrist from 6 ft · P1 12:14

Best skater on the ice

A+

TBL

L. Mercuri

C · impact 1.22

10:36

Ice time

1–0

G – A

0.14

Own xG

28%

xG share

Impact · top 4

L. Mercuri1.2A+

B. Rautiainen1.2A+

G. Sawchyn1.0A+

M. Shuravin1.2A

Report card

TBLFLA

OffenseC-C-

DefenseB-C+

TransitionCC

Special teamsFF

GoaltendingC+C

DisciplineA-D-

LuckCC

Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown

Why it went the way it went

Why TBL won

01Dangerous off the rush
02The moment it turned
03C. Geekie made a difference

Why FLA lost

01Rush defense leaked all night
02Paraded to the penalty box
03Power play came up empty

Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Lightning edge the Panthers in a shootout

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 12 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 8–6

08:50TBLL. Mercuri(N. Abruzzese, J. Viel)1–0
Snap shot from 14 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past A. Schmid. Win probability moved 16 points.On the ice: J. Tinordi, M. Callahan, J. Pelletier, G. Goncalves, C. Geekie · against A. Petrovic, B. Imama, J. Beecher, J. Devine, U. Balinskis
17:58FLAS. Vilmanis(K. Schwindt)1–1
Wrist shot from 31 feet, a 7% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past D. Hildeby. Win probability moved 18 points.On the ice: A. Petrovic, G. Hathaway, K. Schwindt, U. Balinskis, H. St. Martin · against J. Tinordi, M. Callahan, S. O'Reilly, N. Steen, B. Rautiainen

2ndshots 6–9

02:03FLAM. Shuravin(G. Sawchyn, M. Hovorka)1–2
Wrist shot from 52 feet, a 4% chance, a shot that rarely goes in, past D. Hildeby. 9s after a FLA block. Win probability moved 18 points.On the ice: C. Schwindt, D. Sebrango, M. Alscher, K. Schwindt, H. St. Martin · against J. Tinordi, M. Callahan, S. O'Reilly, N. Steen, B. Rautiainen

3rdshots 7–6

12:58TBLB. Rautiainenpower play(G. Goncalves, C. Geekie)2–2
Wrist shot from 7 feet, a 22% chance (off the rush), past A. Schmid. Win probability moved 34 points.On the ice: M. Crozier, N. Abruzzese, D. Duke, N. Steen, B. Rautiainen · against J. Beecher, D. Sebrango, M. Alscher, S. Vilmanis

OTshots 1–1no goals

00:00FLAS. Vilmanispower play2–2
00:00TBLP. Holmbergpower play2–2
00:00TBLB. Rautiainenpower play2–2

score reads TBL–FLA

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

2.10

TBL chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.9

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.004

TBL puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

48.1%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.10Expected goals2.20

FLA 51% of the chance quality

22Shots on goal22

4High-danger chances1

39All attempts (Corsi)42

Adjusted for score: TBL 50% · FLA 51%

Faceoffs · FLA won47%off39%neu35%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

TBL1 / 4 · 0.80 xG

FLA0 / 1 · 0.20 xG

Medium dangermid-range

TBL1 / 10 · 1.09 xG

FLA1 / 17 · 1.67 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

TBL0 / 25 · 0.21 xG

FLA1 / 24 · 0.33 xG

FLA went 1-for-17 from medium danger on 1.67 expected goals — 0.7 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

TBL

3 G · 2.10 xG · +0.9

FLA

2 G · 2.20 xG · -0.2

01234

TBL finished +0.9 against expected, FLA -0.2.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

TBL

WRIST1/22

SNAP1/2

SLAP0/2

TIP IN0/1

BACKHAND0/1

BAT0/0

OTHER0/11

FLA

WRIST2/19

SNAP0/6

SLAP0/5

TIP IN0/2

BACKHAND0/0

BAT0/1

OTHER0/9

TBL

FLA

Off the rush

2 G on 14

1.76 xG

1 G on 18

1.56 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 1

0.10 xG

0 G on 3

0.26 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: TBL went 1-for-22, FLA 2-for-19. TBL scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

D. Hildeby

TBL · 20/22 · .909

started · 64:40 · win

+0.2

saved above expected

the night

Attempts faced: 33
Avg chance faced: 6.7%
Stopped vs expected: 0.939 vs 0.933
Rebounds allowed: 3

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/10.2+0.2

Medium1/171.7+0.7

Low1/150.3-0.7

Shorthanded0/60.5+0.5

Tips & deflections0/20.2+0.2

The save

20% chance stopped, a wrist from 14 ft · P4 00:44

The one to have back

4% chance went in, a wrist from 52 ft · P2 02:03

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

A. Schmid

FLA · 20/22 · .909

started · 64:42 · OT loss

+0.1

saved above expected

the night

Attempts faced: 27
Avg chance faced: 7.8%
Stopped vs expected: 0.926 vs 0.922
Rebounds allowed: 1

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/40.8-0.2

Medium1/101.1+0.1

Low0/130.2+0.2

Shorthanded1/70.7-0.3

Tips & deflections0/10.1+0.1

The save

20% chance stopped, a wrist from 6 ft · P1 12:14

The one to have back

14% chance went in, a snap from 14 ft · P1 08:50

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: L. Mercuri (TBL), 10:36 of ice, 1-0, 28% of the expected goals while he was out.

TBL18 skaters

Skater	TOI	G-A	SOG	ixG	xG%	PD/PT	Impact	/60	Grade
L. MercuriC	10:36	1-0	1	0.14	28	3/0	1.22	6.89	A+
B. RautiainenC	17:58	1-0	2	0.42	63	0/0	1.19	3.97	A+
G. GoncalvesC	19:53	0-1	2	0.31	55	0/0	1.08	3.25	A
J. VielL	12:22	0-1	1	0.09	100	2/1	0.91	4.40	A
C. GeekieC	19:56	0-1	1	0.04	55	0/0	0.77	2.33	B
N. AbruzzeseC	14:57	0-1	0	0.00	40	0/0	0.58	2.33	B
P. HolmbergR	20:09	0-0	2	0.25	69	0/0	0.42	1.25	B
N. SteenL	16:36	0-0	2	0.34	71	0/1	0.33	1.20	C
Z. GirgensonsC	14:24	0-0	1	0.01	77	0/0	0.31	1.28	C
C. D'AstousD	13:25	0-0	1	0.04	71	0/0	0.24	1.08	C
J. PelletierL	16:59	0-0	0	0.00	87	0/1	0.23	0.80	C
M. CrozierD	25:59	0-0	3	0.03	49	0/0	0.23	0.52	C
M. CallahanD	22:00	0-0	1	0.17	45	0/0	0.05	0.13	C
J. TinordiD	17:13	0-0	2	0.01	41	0/0	0.04	0.15	D
M. GroshevD	21:25	0-0	2	0.15	37	0/0	-0.01	-0.03	D
M. PietroniroD	12:45	0-0	0	0.10	42	0/0	-0.02	-0.07	D
S. O'ReillyR	20:35	0-0	0	0.00	45	0/0	-0.03	-0.07	D
D. DukeL	12:08	0-0	1	0.00	17	0/2	-0.66	-3.26	F

FLA18 skaters

Skater	TOI	G-A	SOG	ixG	xG%	PD/PT	Impact	/60	Grade
G. SawchynC	13:54	0-1	0	0.07	77	0/0	1.01	4.38	A+
M. ShuravinD	21:22	1-0	1	0.04	65	0/0	1.16	3.25	A
M. HovorkaD	19:22	0-1	3	0.15	61	0/0	1.03	3.20	A
C. ReinhardtL	13:55	0-0	3	0.49	71	1/0	0.84	3.61	A
H. St. MartinL	13:31	0-0	2	0.56	100	0/0	0.81	3.58	B
N. BastianR	16:12	0-0	2	0.26	79	0/0	0.67	2.47	B
K. SchwindtL	10:34	0-1	1	0.02	59	0/2	0.54	3.07	B
S. VilmanisL	20:15	1-0	2	0.17	31	0/1	0.47	1.41	B
C. SchwindtR	15:04	0-0	2	0.17	66	0/0	0.31	1.25	C
J. DevineR	15:13	0-0	1	0.11	37	0/0	0.05	0.19	C
U. BalinskisD	24:46	0-0	0	0.00	43	0/0	0.01	0.04	D
M. AlscherD	18:33	0-0	0	0.00	46	0/0	0.01	0.03	D
J. BeecherC	18:35	0-0	0	0.00	41	1/0	0.01	0.02	D
D. SebrangoD	18:04	0-0	1	0.01	37	1/1	-0.01	-0.03	D
B. ImamaL	14:02	0-0	2	0.01	14	0/0	-0.04	-0.15	F
A. PetrovicD	23:10	0-0	0	0.13	41	0/0	-0.10	-0.25	F
S. LaffertyC	14:34	0-0	1	0.00	25	1/2	-0.27	-1.11	F
G. HathawayR	13:35	0-0	1	0.02	17	0/2	-0.45	-1.99	F

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, TBL: R. McDonagh, J. Carlson, V. Hedman, N. Kucherov, L. Glendening, Y. Gourde and 43 more. Scratched, FLA: B. Marchand, L. Eller, J. Markstrom, D. Kulikov, R. Gudas, C. Verhaeghe and 44 more. Referees Jean Hebert and Thomas John Luxmore; linesmen Jesse Marquis.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F

DimensionTBLFLA

Offense

▸Basis

TBL Created 2.10 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 4 high-danger shots (0.80 xG) and 14 rush shots (1.76 xG).

FLA Created 2.20 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 1 high-danger shots (0.20 xG) and 18 rush shots (1.56 xG).

C-

Defense

▸Basis

TBL Allowed 2.20 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 1 high-danger shots (0.20 xG) and 18 rush shots (1.56 xG).

FLA Allowed 2.10 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 4 high-danger shots (0.80 xG) and 14 rush shots (1.76 xG).

B-

C+

Transition

▸Basis

TBL Rush shots 14–18, rush xG 1.76–1.56 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

FLA Rush shots 18–14, rush xG 1.56–1.76 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

Special teams

▸Basis

TBL 0-for-6 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.40 PP xG.

FLA 0-for-3 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.41 PP xG.

Goaltending

▸Basis

TBL +0.20 goals saved above expected on 22 shots against.

FLA +0.10 goals saved above expected on 22 shots against.

C+

Discipline

▸Basis

TBL Took 5 penalties for 21 PIM vs 8 for 27 on the other side.

FLA Took 8 penalties for 27 PIM vs 5 for 21 on the other side.

A-

D-

Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

TBL Finishing -0.10 goals vs xG plus +0.20 GSAx of save luck = +0.10 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

FLA Finishing -0.20 goals vs xG plus +0.10 GSAx of save luck = -0.10 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately

What the model flagged

WARNINGFLA

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 14 rush shots worth 1.76 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHTBL

Dangerous off the rush

2 goals on 14 rush shots worth 1.76 xG.

WARNINGTBL

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 18 rush shots worth 1.56 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

WARNINGFLA

Paraded to the penalty box

Took 8 penalties for 27 minutes (opponent: 5 for 21).

Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.

STRENGTHFLA

Dangerous off the rush

1 goals on 18 rush shots worth 1.56 xG.

WARNINGTBL

Power play came up empty

0-for-6 with the man advantage on 0.40 PP xG.

Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.

61 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

TBL

28 shots

Final

61 shots

FLA

33 shots

TBL FLA GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

Each club shoots toward its own end — TBL left, FLA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

M. Shuravin

#76 · D · FLA

1 G · 0 A · 1 SOG · 21:22 on ice · +1

S. Vilmanis

#95 · L · FLA

1 G · 0 A · 2 SOG · 20:15 on ice · +1

C. Geekie

#94 · C · TBL

0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 19:56 on ice · -1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Sep 26

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Model draft

Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The rates below are last season's; this exhibition will not count toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 26, 3:10 PMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a TBL 3.3 - 3.2 FLA game with the Lightning at 51% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Keys to the game

Sergei Bobrovsky has leaked goals all season. Sergei Bobrovsky: -14.9 GSAx over 52 games.
Brandon Hagel drives the Lightning offense. Brandon Hagel: 23G 38A, 1.54 xG/60, 17 high-danger goals.
Jonas Johansson has leaked goals all season. Jonas Johansson: -9.3 GSAx over 25 games.

Season 5v5 Numbers

Metric	TBL	FLA
xG%	53.7%	50.6%
Corsi%	53.0%	51.9%
PDO	1.019	0.989

Rates from 2025-26 — the 2026-27 sample isn't live yet.

Where the Edges Live

The Lightning own the underlying play — 53.7% 5v5 xG vs 50.6%.

Regression Watch

The Lightning's PDO is 1.019 — running hot, expect some regression.

Goaltending Matchup

Goalie matchup: A. Vasilevskiy (+18.3 GSAx in 58 GP, 91.2% SV) vs C. Black.

Players to Watch

TBL

Brandon Hagel — 1.54 xG/60, 23G 38A, 17 HD goals, 10.7% shooting
Nikita Kucherov — 1.28 xG/60, 25G 86A, 16 HD goals, 10.8% shooting

Key Matchups

TBL

Key matchup: Neutralize Brandon Hagel (23G, 1.54 xG/60, 17 HD goals)
Watch Nikita Kucherov (25G, 10.8% shooting)

FLA

FLA scores 43% of goals from HD — collapse and protect the slot
FLA scores 35 rebound goals (23% of total) — clear the crease

Tactical Notes

TBL: 1% HD goal rate, 0% rebound goal rate
TBL defensive weak link: Victor Hedman
FLA: 0% HD goal rate, 0% rebound goal rate
FLA defensive weak link: Uvis Balinskis

Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

TBL 51%

51%

TBL

Model favorite

51%

49%

TBL50FLA

TBL by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score TBL 3.3–3.2 FLA; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

TBL← edge

edge →FLA

53.7%50.6%

53.0%51.9%

3.383.22

2.923.14

3.493.00

2.793.34

1.0190.989

TBL holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.019 vs 0.989) says TBL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · No games yet

TBL

0-0-0

+0 GD · 0d rest

FLA

0-0-0

+0 GD · 0d rest

1.019

TBL PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.989

FLA PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

STRENGTHTBL

Brandon Hagel drives the Lightning offense

Brandon Hagel: 23G 38A, 1.54 xG/60, 17 high-danger goals.

WARNINGFLA

Sergei Bobrovsky has leaked goals all season

Sergei Bobrovsky: -14.9 GSAx over 52 games.

Shoot from everywhere — volume beats a cold crease.

TACTICALFLA

Shutdown Assignment: Panthers

Highest individual xG/60 on TBL. Gets 47 HD shots. Limit slot access.

Key matchup: Neutralize Brandon Hagel (23G, 1.54 xG/60, 17 HD goals)

WARNINGTBL

Exploitable minutes: Victor Hedman

Victor Hedman is on ice for 2.05 xGA/60 and 42 high-danger shots against this season.

Hunt matchups against Victor Hedman's shifts with the top line.

Where the edges live

The Lightning own the underlying play — 53.7% 5v5 xG vs 50.6%.

Regression watch

The Lightning's PDO is 1.019 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

The Lightning own the underlying play — 53.7% 5v5 xG vs 50.6%.
Goalie matchup: A. Vasilevskiy (+18.3 GSAx in 58 GP, 91.2% SV) vs C. Black.
The Lightning's PDO is 1.019 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

TBL

preseason · vs FLA · Thu, Sep 24

Expected in goal

A. Vasilevskiy

1 day rest.833 last start56:34 played

Backup Jonas Johansson · -9.3 GSAx this season

Forwards · 12

J. Harkins10:49
B. Point21:44
J. Pelletier09:48
S. O'Reilly14:26
B. Hagel20:12
B. Rautiainen13:22
S. Sabourin11:13
J. Guentzel21:07
A. Cirelli14:30
N. Kucherov22:13
C. Geekie15:13
I. Mikheyev13:59

Defence · 6

R. McDonagh16:20
J. Carlson23:51
V. Hedman19:37
E. Lilleberg18:32
E. Cernak15:07
J. Moser17:23

FLA

preseason · vs TBL · Thu, Sep 24

Expected in goal

C. Black

1 day rest.875 last start40:00 played

C. Black started last game and was relieved by K. Gerasimyuk (20:00 of it).

Backup Sergei Bobrovsky · -14.9 GSAx this season

Forwards · 12

N. Bastian14:10
B. Imama13:13
J. Beecher16:49
S. Lafferty18:36
L. Eller16:31
G. Hathaway12:22
A. Crookshank11:07
C. Reinhardt13:50
C. Schwindt13:46
H. St. Martin12:57
S. Vilmanis15:32
K. Schwindt10:33

Defence · 6

U. Balinskis22:32
A. Petrovic24:03
M. Alscher21:15
D. Sebrango21:11
M. Shuravin15:20
M. Hovorka16:13

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

TBL

Brandon Hagel23G 38A

1.54 xG/60 · 17 HD · 10.7% sh

Nikita Kucherov25G 86A

1.28 xG/60 · 16 HD · 10.8% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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