WARNINGSEA
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 27 rush shots worth 2.68 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
The verdict · earned
The Canucks earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
SEA 3 · VAN 4
Preseason · exhibition
Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.
◆ By the ModelSep 27, 12:16 AMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The Canucks beat the Kraken 4-3. The underlying numbers confirmed it.
Vancouver controlled the game so thoroughly that Seattle's three goals required significant luck. The Kraken generated only 2.23 expected goals but scored 3 — a 0.77-goal overperformance that masked what was a clear dominance by the home team.
The Canucks held 52% of shot attempts and converted that advantage into a 62–38 split in expected goals. Vancouver's attack was built on speed: the team scored four goals from 27 rush chances, a conversion rate that explained the edge despite Seattle's competent power play.
Where Seattle lost the game. Transition defense was the weakness. The Kraken surrendered 27 rush shots worth 2.68 expected goals and allowed four of the five goals off the rush — benching gaps opened every period.
Where Vancouver won it. J. DeBrusk's go-ahead slap shot at 18:22 of the third was the moment. He finished with 1 goal and 2 assists. E. Pettersson added a goal and an assist off the rush in the second, and the power play converted twice on 12 chances.
The scoreline flattered Seattle. The Kraken's power play was crisp, but they gave up more than they got.
The goals
- SEA 1–0, 02:13 of the first on the power play. B. Montour, slap shot from 56 feet, a 3% chance by the model, past K. Lankinen. Assists: M. Beniers, K. Kakko. Win probability moved 14 points.
- SEA 2–0, 07:51 of the first. B. McMann, wrist shot from 27 feet, an 8% chance by the model (a rebound), past K. Lankinen. Assists: C. Fleury, B. Montour. 3 seconds after a SEA shot by C. Fleury. Win probability moved 13 points.
- VAN 2–1, 11:15 of the first on the power play. B. Boeser, tip-in from 9 feet, a 10% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Daccord. Assists: J. DeBrusk, F. Hronek. Win probability moved 14 points.
- VAN 2–2, 02:31 of the second. E. Pettersson, backhander from 9 feet, a 19% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Daccord. Assists: J. Lekkerimäki, J. DeBrusk. 2 seconds after a VAN takeaway by J. DeBrusk. Win probability moved 20 points.
- SEA 3–2, 01:29 of the third. B. Catton, backhander from 6 feet, a 24% chance by the model (off the rush), past K. Lankinen. Assists: R. Winterton, S. Wright. 10 seconds after a SEA giveaway by V. Dunn. Win probability moved 27 points.
- VAN 3–3, 11:05 of the third on the power play. Z. Buium, wrist shot from 11 feet, a 16% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Daccord. Assists: L. Karlsson, T. Willander. Win probability moved 34 points.
- VAN 3–4, 18:22 of the third. J. DeBrusk, slap shot from 11 feet, an 11% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Daccord. Assists: B. Boeser, E. Pettersson. Win probability moved 42 points.
What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.