WARNINGCHI
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 29 rush shots worth 2.47 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
The verdict · earned
The Blackhawks earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
STL 2 · CHI 3
Preseason · exhibition
Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.
◆ By the ModelSep 27, 12:17 AMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Chicago's 3-2 win reflected a larger dominance in the underlying shot quality, but the scoreline barely hints at it: the Blackhawks held just 42% of shot attempts (22-31), yet they controlled 57% of expected goals.
That gap between volume and danger tells the whole story. The Blackhawks generated 0.120 expected goals per shot; St. Louis managed 0.063, nearly half that. When one team creates more efficient chances, a close shot count becomes a decisive advantage.
S. Knight saved 29 of 31 for a 0.935 save percentage—nearly 1.8 goals above expected. J. Hofer faced the opposite. He kept 19 of 22, a 0.864 mark, but the Blues' lower-quality volume meant even outperforming his expected goals by 1.91 wasn't enough.
The Blackhawks struck on special teams. R. Kantserov backhanded home from 18 feet on the power play in the second, with T. Bertuzzi adding two assists on that sequence and earlier on I. Cole's shorthanded conversion. C. Parayko answered late in the third on the power play—a 35-foot wrist shot—but Chicago had already built breathing room.
Both teams squandered goals of expected value: the Blackhawks by 1.91, St. Louis by 1.77. Chicago's superior efficiency and goaltending margin held up despite the variance.
The goals
- CHI 0–1, 06:27 of the first. A. Frondell, wrist shot from 22 feet, an 8% chance by the model (a rebound), past J. Hofer. Assists: T. Bertuzzi. 3 seconds after a CHI missed shot by T. Bertuzzi. Win probability moved 14 points.
- CHI 0–2, 07:00 of the second shorthanded. I. Cole, wrist shot from 18 feet, a 22% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Hofer. 7 seconds after a STL missed shot by P. Broberg. Win probability moved 14 points.
- CHI 0–3, 09:31 of the second on the power play. R. Kantserov, backhander from 18 feet, a 12% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Hofer. Assists: T. Bertuzzi, N. Lardis. Win probability moved 7 points.
- STL 1–3, 19:04 of the second. J. Berggren, wrist shot from 14 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past S. Knight. 4 seconds after a STL takeaway by J. Berggren. Win probability moved 6 points.
- STL 2–3, 18:44 of the third on the power play. C. Parayko, wrist shot from 35 feet, a 10% chance by the model (off the rush), past S. Knight. Assists: J. Snuggerud, R. Thomas.
What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.