Motion-blurred skater in a Columbus Blue Jackets sweater

Breakdown · CBJ at DET · Preseason

Blue Jackets hold off the Red Wings

FinalSat, Sep 26

CBJColumbus Blue Jackets4 DETDetroit Red Wings2

The verdict · stolen

The Blue Jackets stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.06–3.87 and won anyway.

CBJ 4 · DET 2

Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 27, 12:20 AMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Columbus beat Detroit 4–2. But expected goals told a different story.

The Red Wings held a 3.87–3.06 advantage in expected goals—56% of the shot quality all night. Columbus stole the game through elite goaltending and transition dominance.

J. Greaves saved 1.87 goals above expected, the entire margin of victory.

Columbus generated 0.073 expected goals per shot; Detroit managed 0.046. The Blue Jackets turned transition opportunities into better-quality looks than Detroit did.

On the rush, Columbus was relentless: four goals from twenty chances. Detroit never generated that offensive volume and never made Columbus pay for the expected goals disadvantage.

Detroit wasted their advantage. They underperformed their expected goals by 1.87—three rebound opportunities, zero converted. Columbus overperformed by 0.94. The gap between workload and result is the game.

C. Sillinger's empty-netter at 19:49 of the third sealed it after an A. DeBrincat turnover. By then, J. Greaves had already won the game.

The goals

CBJ 1–0, 14:40 of the first on the power play. C. Coyle, tip-in from 4 feet, a 60% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Gibson. Assists: K. Marchenko, Z. Werenski. Win probability moved 17 points.
CBJ 2–0, 18:44 of the first. V. Nichushkin, slap shot from 35 feet, an 11% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Gibson. Assists: C. Coyle. Win probability moved 15 points.
CBJ 3–0, 03:55 of the second. J. Williams, snap shot from 29 feet, a 16% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Gibson. Assists: R. Lomberg, D. Mateychuk. Win probability moved 9 points.
DET 3–1, 06:39 of the third. B. Chiarot, snap shot from 59 feet, a 2% chance by the model, past J. Greaves. Assists: M. Kasper. 3 seconds after a DET faceoff win by M. Kasper. Win probability moved 5 points.
DET 3–2, 14:19 of the third. M. Rasmussen, wrist shot from 11 feet, a 20% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Greaves. Assists: M. Kasper, B. Chiarot. Win probability moved 12 points.
CBJ 4–2, 19:49 of the third into an empty net. C. Sillinger, tip-in from 7 feet, a 51% chance by the model (off the rush). Assists: V. Nichushkin, S. Monahan. 10 seconds after a DET giveaway by A. DeBrincat.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Preseason · Sep 26

CBJ

DET

Blue Jackets hold off the Red Wings

Chances 3.1 – 3.9Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Red Wings deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

CBJ

3.06

DET

3.87

44% of the chances56%

The board read CBJ 4, DET 2. The chances read CBJ 3.1, DET 3.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

CBJ

+0.9

goals above expected

CBJ3.06 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

DET3.87 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

The Red Wings left 1.9 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

The swing

+17

win-probability points

46% → 64% for CBJ

DET 100%the game, start to finish

CBJ 100%P1 · P2 · P3

CBJP1 14:40 · PP

C. Coyle makes it 1–0.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games

Every goal, in order

P1 14:40CBJC. CoylePP60%1–0
P1 18:44CBJV. Nichushkin11%2–0
P2 03:55CBJJ. Williams16%3–0
P3 06:39DETB. Chiarot2%3–1
P3 14:19DETM. Rasmussen20%3–2
P3 19:49CBJC. SillingerEN51%4–2

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

CBJ

32 shots

Final

88 shots

DET

56 shots

CBJ DET GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 4 in

shots · 2 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

CBJDET

2 / 3

1.32 xG

High danger

1 / 5

1.03 xG

2 / 14

1.42 xG

Medium

0 / 25

2.48 xG

0 / 25

0.32 xG

Low

1 / 55

0.37 xG

The Blue Jackets buried 2 of 3 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

J. Greaves

+1.9

CBJ · 31/33 · 60:00

Best save · a 24% chance, deflected from 6 ft · P3 06:22

J. Gibson

−0.5

DET · 18/21 · 58:11

Best save · a 21% chance, wrist from 9 ft · P3 16:56

Best skater on the ice

A+

CBJ

V. Nichushkin

R · impact 2.11

17:23

Ice time

1–1

G – A

0.33

Own xG

58%

xG share

Impact · top 4

V. Nichushkin2.1A+

B. Chiarot1.8A+

J. Williams1.3A+

M. Rasmussen1.5A

Report card

CBJDET

OffenseB+A

DefenseFD

TransitionD+B-

Special teamsA+D

GoaltendingAC

DisciplineDB

LuckA+D-

Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown

Why it went the way it went

Why CBJ won

01Dangerous off the rush
02Won against the run of play
03J. Greaves tilted the crease

Why DET lost

01Rush defense leaked all night
02Cold finishing night
03PDO ran cold

Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Blue Jackets hold off the Red Wings

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 12 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 8–12

14:40CBJC. Coylepower play(K. Marchenko, Z. Werenski)1–0
Tip-in from 4 feet, a 60% chance, a near-certain one (off the rush), past J. Gibson. Win probability moved 17 points.On the ice: C. Soucy, S. Monahan, V. Nichushkin, I. Provorov, C. Garland · against V. Arvidsson, M. Seider, A. Johansson, M. Kasper, E. Finnie
18:44CBJV. Nichushkin(C. Coyle)2–0
Slap shot from 35 feet, an 11% chance (off the rush), past J. Gibson. Win probability moved 15 points.On the ice: E. Gudbranson, S. Monahan, V. Nichushkin, C. Garland, J. Christiansen · against J. Faulk, V. Arvidsson, M. Kasper, A. Johansson, E. Finnie

2ndshots 5–10

03:55CBJJ. Williams(R. Lomberg, D. Mateychuk)3–0
Snap shot from 29 feet, a 16% chance (off the rush), past J. Gibson. Win probability moved 9 points.On the ice: C. Soucy, S. Monahan, V. Nichushkin, I. Provorov, C. Garland · against J. Faulk, A. Copp, A. DeBrincat, L. Raymond, A. Johansson

3rdshots 9–11

06:39DETB. Chiarot(M. Kasper)3–1
Snap shot from 59 feet, a 2% chance, a shot that rarely goes in, past J. Greaves. 3s after a DET faceoff win by M. Kasper. Win probability moved 5 points.On the ice: B. Chiarot, K. Kolesar, M. Rasmussen, M. Kasper, A. Sandin-Pellikka · against Z. Werenski, K. Marchenko, K. Johnson, C. Sillinger, D. Mateychuk
14:19DETM. Rasmussen(M. Kasper, B. Chiarot)3–2
Wrist shot from 11 feet, a 20% chance (off the rush), past J. Greaves. Win probability moved 12 points.On the ice: B. Chiarot, K. Kolesar, M. Rasmussen, M. Kasper, A. Sandin-Pellikka · against E. Gudbranson, K. Marchenko, J. Christiansen, K. Johnson, C. Sillinger
19:49CBJC. Sillingerempty net(V. Nichushkin, S. Monahan)4–2
Tip-in from 7 feet, a 51% chance (off the rush). 10s after a DET giveaway by A. DeBrincat.On the ice: C. Soucy, R. Lomberg, J. Christiansen, L. Del Bel Belluz, J. Williams · against C. Mazur, A. Johansson, N. Danielson, A. Sandin-Pellikka, M. Brandsegg-Nygård

score reads CBJ–DET

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.06

CBJ chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.9

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.072

CBJ puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

33.1%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.06Expected goals3.87

DET 56% of the chance quality

22Shots on goal33

3High-danger chances5

42All attempts (Corsi)85

Adjusted for score: CBJ 28% · DET 72%

Faceoffs · DET won44%off53%neu27%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

CBJ2 / 3 · 1.32 xG

DET1 / 5 · 1.03 xG

Medium dangermid-range

CBJ2 / 14 · 1.42 xG

DET0 / 25 · 2.48 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

CBJ0 / 25 · 0.32 xG

DET1 / 55 · 0.37 xG

DET went 0-for-25 from medium danger on 2.48 expected goals — 2.5 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

CBJ

4 G · 3.06 xG · +0.9

DET

2 G · 3.87 xG · -1.9

012345

CBJ finished +0.9 against expected, DET -1.9.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

CBJ

WRIST0/14

SNAP1/10

SLAP1/4

TIP IN2/2

BACKHAND0/2

DEFLECTED0/0

OTHER0/10

DET

WRIST1/17

SNAP1/17

SLAP0/7

TIP IN0/9

BACKHAND0/3

DEFLECTED0/3

OTHER0/29

CBJ

DET

Off the rush

4 G on 20

2.70 xG

1 G on 30

2.94 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 1

0.04 xG

0 G on 3

0.37 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: CBJ went 0-for-14, DET 1-for-17. CBJ scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Greaves

CBJ · 31/33 · .939

started · 60:00 · win

+1.9

saved above expected

the night

Attempts faced: 56
Avg chance faced: 6.9%
Stopped vs expected: 0.964 vs 0.931
Rebounds allowed: 3

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/51.0+0.0

Medium0/252.5+2.5

Low1/260.4-0.6

Shorthanded0/151.5+1.5

Tips & deflections0/121.0+1.0

The save

24% chance stopped, a deflected from 6 ft · P3 06:22

The one to have back

2% chance went in, a snap from 59 ft · P3 06:39

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Gibson

DET · 18/21 · .857

started · 58:11 · loss

-0.5

saved above expected

the night

Attempts faced: 31
Avg chance faced: 8.2%
Stopped vs expected: 0.903 vs 0.918
Rebounds allowed: 1

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/20.8-0.2

Medium2/141.4-0.6

Low0/150.3+0.3

Shorthanded1/20.7-0.3

Tips & deflections1/10.6-0.4

The save

21% chance stopped, a wrist from 9 ft · P3 16:56

The one to have back

11% chance went in, a slap from 35 ft · P1 18:44

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: V. Nichushkin (CBJ), 17:23 of ice, 1-1, 58% of the expected goals while he was out.

CBJ18 skaters

Skater	TOI	G-A	SOG	ixG	xG%	PD/PT	Impact	/60	Grade
V. NichushkinR	17:23	1-1	5	0.33	58	0/0	2.11	7.28	A+
J. WilliamsR	9:13	1-0	1	0.27	75	0/0	1.27	8.27	A+
C. CoyleC	18:03	1-1	2	0.80	24	0/0	1.51	5.01	A
R. LombergL	11:14	0-1	0	0.07	54	0/0	0.78	4.17	B
Z. WerenskiD	23:03	0-1	0	0.00	67	0/0	0.89	2.32	B
S. MonahanC	16:15	0-1	1	0.00	62	0/1	0.78	2.88	B
C. SillingerC	17:40	1-0	3	0.63	26	0/0	0.65	2.22	B
C. SoucyD	16:20	0-0	1	0.01	71	1/2	0.55	2.03	B
K. MarchenkoR	14:03	0-1	0	0.06	34	0/0	0.52	2.22	C
L. Del Bel BelluzC	10:40	0-0	1	0.09	65	0/0	0.41	2.28	C
D. MateychukD	23:11	0-1	0	0.00	27	0/0	0.28	0.72	C
C. GarlandR	13:38	0-0	1	0.07	55	1/1	0.20	0.86	C
K. JohnsonC	13:48	0-0	2	0.31	39	0/0	0.14	0.60	D
J. ChristiansenD	11:26	0-0	1	0.03	57	0/1	0.06	0.31	D
M. OlivierR	14:00	0-0	1	0.31	38	0/0	0.02	0.10	D
I. ProvorovD	26:04	0-0	0	0.00	33	1/0	-0.13	-0.29	F
D. HeinenL	14:25	0-0	1	0.04	16	0/0	-0.26	-1.06	F
E. GudbransonD	19:34	0-0	2	0.04	29	0/1	-0.44	-1.36	F

DET18 skaters

Skater	TOI	G-A	SOG	ixG	xG%	PD/PT	Impact	/60	Grade
B. ChiarotD	18:13	1-1	2	0.14	64	0/0	1.78	5.87	A+
M. RasmussenC	17:02	1-0	2	0.31	90	0/0	1.48	5.21	A
M. KasperC	15:26	0-2	3	0.18	32	0/0	1.36	5.31	A
A. DeBrincatR	19:20	0-0	3	0.34	81	1/0	1.06	3.28	A
M. SeiderD	25:33	0-0	7	0.17	60	1/0	1.14	2.67	A
A. CoppC	20:28	0-0	3	0.49	77	0/0	0.98	2.88	B
V. ArvidssonL	16:41	0-0	3	0.61	60	0/0	0.73	2.63	B
A. Sandin-PellikkaD	20:21	0-0	1	0.09	61	0/0	0.47	1.39	C
L. RaymondL	18:44	0-0	1	0.34	68	1/1	0.46	1.46	C
K. KolesarR	12:19	0-0	0	0.00	83	1/0	0.37	1.80	C
M. Brandsegg-NygårdR	13:00	0-0	1	0.26	57	0/0	0.33	1.54	C
C. MazurL	9:52	0-0	2	0.24	35	1/0	0.11	0.69	D
N. DanielsonC	12:20	0-0	2	0.31	50	0/1	0.12	0.59	D
J. FaulkD	16:41	0-0	0	0.31	57	0/1	0.10	0.36	D
J. CompherL	12:34	0-0	0	0.00	78	0/0	0.09	0.41	D
E. FinnieC	16:34	0-0	1	0.03	47	0/0	-0.01	-0.04	D
A. JohanssonD	17:31	0-0	1	0.03	34	0/0	-0.23	-0.77	F
A. JohanssonD	14:56	0-0	1	0.01	19	1/1	-0.30	-1.19	F

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, CBJ: C. Talbot, D. Severson, P. Quenneville, M. Wood, E. Merzlikins, D. Fabbro and 34 more. Scratched, DET: D. Larkin, A. Englund, A. Kadeykin, M. Appleton, D. Tarasov, J. Bernard-Docker and 32 more. Referees Brandon Blandina and Liam Maaskant; linesmen Kyle Flemington and Tyson Baker.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F

DimensionCBJDET

Offense

▸Basis

CBJ Created 3.06 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 3 high-danger shots (1.32 xG) and 20 rush shots (2.70 xG).

DET Created 3.87 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (1.03 xG) and 30 rush shots (2.94 xG).

B+

Defense

▸Basis

CBJ Allowed 3.87 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (1.03 xG) and 30 rush shots (2.94 xG).

DET Allowed 3.06 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 3 high-danger shots (1.32 xG) and 20 rush shots (2.70 xG).

Transition

▸Basis

CBJ Rush shots 20–30, rush xG 2.70–2.94 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

DET Rush shots 30–20, rush xG 2.94–2.70 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

D+

B-

Special teams

▸Basis

CBJ 1-for-2 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 0.66 PP xG.

DET 0-for-4 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 1.49 PP xG.

A+

100

Goaltending

▸Basis

CBJ +1.87 goals saved above expected on 33 shots against.

DET +0.06 goals saved above expected on 21 shots against.

Discipline

▸Basis

CBJ Took 6 penalties for 12 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.

DET Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 6 for 12 on the other side.

Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

CBJ Finishing +0.94 goals vs xG plus +1.87 GSAx of save luck = +2.81 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

DET Finishing -1.87 goals vs xG plus +0.06 GSAx of save luck = -1.81 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

A+

D-

Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately

What the model flagged

WARNINGDET

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 20 rush shots worth 2.70 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHCBJ

Dangerous off the rush

4 goals on 20 rush shots worth 2.70 xG.

WARNINGCBJ

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 30 rush shots worth 2.94 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHDET

Dangerous off the rush

1 goals on 30 rush shots worth 2.94 xG.

LUCKDET

Cold finishing night

Scored 2 on 3.87 xG — -1.87 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.

STRENGTHCBJ

J. Greaves tilted the crease

J. Greaves stopped 31 of 33 (0.939), +1.87 goals above expected.

88 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

CBJ

32 shots

Final

88 shots

DET

56 shots

CBJ DET GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — CBJ left, DET right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

B. Chiarot

#8 · D · DET

1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 18:13 on ice · +1

C. Coyle

#3 · C · CBJ

1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 18:03 on ice · +1

V. Nichushkin

#43 · R · CBJ

1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 17:23 on ice · +2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Sep 26

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Model draft

Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The rates below are last season's; this exhibition will not count toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 26, 3:36 PMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a CBJ 3.1 - 3.3 DET game with the Red Wings at 53% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Keys to the game

Alex DeBrincat drives the Red Wings offense. Alex DeBrincat: 17G 44A, 1.55 xG/60, 14 high-danger goals.
Jet Greaves has been a season-long wall. Jet Greaves: +12.2 GSAx over 55 games (0.908 SV%).
John Gibson has been a season-long wall. John Gibson: +11.4 GSAx over 57 games (0.901 SV%).

Season 5v5 Numbers

Metric	CBJ	DET
xG%	50.0%	50.9%
Corsi%	51.1%	49.2%
PDO	1.003	0.986

Rates from 2025-26 — the 2026-27 sample isn't live yet.

Players to Watch

CBJ

Dmitri Voronkov — 1.11 xG/60, 9G 15A, 5 HD goals, 8.2% shooting
Kirill Marchenko — 1.06 xG/60, 17G 40A, 6 HD goals, 7.8% shooting

DET

Alex DeBrincat — 1.55 xG/60, 17G 44A, 14 HD goals, 5.9% shooting
Emmitt Finnie — 0.91 xG/60, 8G 17A, 8 HD goals, 6.7% shooting

Key Matchups

CBJ

Key matchup: Neutralize Dmitri Voronkov (9G, 1.11 xG/60, 5 HD goals)
Watch Kirill Marchenko (17G, 7.8% shooting)

DET

Key matchup: Neutralize Alex DeBrincat (17G, 1.55 xG/60, 14 HD goals)
DET scores 64% of goals from HD — collapse and protect the slot

Tactical Notes

CBJ: 0% HD goal rate, 0% rebound goal rate
CBJ defensive weak link: Erik Gudbranson
DET: 1% HD goal rate, 0% rebound goal rate
DET defensive weak link: Mason Appleton

One Thing to Watch

Two evenly matched teams on paper — this one tilts on goaltending.

Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

DET 53%

53%

DET

Model favorite

47%

53%

CBJ50DET

DET by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score CBJ 3.1–3.3 DET; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

CBJ← edge

edge →DET

50.0%50.9%

51.1%49.2%

3.143.22

3.143.10

3.002.91

3.063.10

1.0030.986

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.003 vs 0.986) says CBJ has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · No games yet

CBJ

0-0-0

+0 GD · 0d rest

DET

0-0-0

+0 GD · 0d rest

1.003

CBJ PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.986

DET PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

STRENGTHDET

Alex DeBrincat drives the Red Wings offense

Alex DeBrincat: 17G 44A, 1.55 xG/60, 14 high-danger goals.

TACTICALDET

Shutdown Assignment: Red Wings

Highest individual xG/60 on CBJ. Gets 25 HD shots. Limit slot access.

Key matchup: Neutralize Dmitri Voronkov (9G, 1.11 xG/60, 5 HD goals)

TACTICALCBJ

Shutdown Assignment: Blue Jackets

Highest individual xG/60 on DET. Gets 42 HD shots. Limit slot access.

Key matchup: Neutralize Alex DeBrincat (17G, 1.55 xG/60, 14 HD goals)

STRENGTHCBJ

Jet Greaves has been a season-long wall

Jet Greaves: +12.2 GSAx over 55 games (0.908 SV%).

Things to watch

Two evenly matched teams on paper — this one tilts on goaltending.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

CBJ

preseason · vs PIT · Thu, Sep 24

Expected in goal

C. Talbot

1 day rest1.000 last start60:00 played

Backup Jet Greaves · +12.2 GSAx this season

Forwards · 12

C. Coyle15:42
C. Sillinger16:41
D. Voronkov15:17
M. Wood10:44
O. Keskinen11:26
S. Monahan16:06
V. Nichushkin16:16
D. Heinen13:47
L. Tuch12:29
K. Marchenko17:14
K. Johnson17:38
J. Williams14:35

Defence · 6

C. White16:31
Z. Werenski24:04
E. Gudbranson18:32
C. Elick24:01
C. Ceulemans18:39
G. Richard18:18

DET

preseason · vs BUF · Thu, Sep 24

Expected in goal

D. Tarasov

1 day rest.895 last start60:24 played

Backup John Gibson · +11.4 GSAx this season

Forwards · 12

S. Dries11:52
A. Copp21:36
M. Appleton14:39
L. Raymond21:13
M. Brandsegg-Nygård14:14
N. Danielson17:19
C. Mazur11:30
J. Leonard09:28
E. Finnie15:50
D. Shine09:29
W. Skoog10:00
A. DeBrincat18:37

Defence · 6

J. Bernard-Docker20:55
A. Johansson17:46
A. Sandin-Pellikka20:33
M. Seider24:21
W. Wallinder15:21
J. Bryson17:38

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

CBJ

Dmitri Voronkov9G 15A

1.11 xG/60 · 5 HD · 8.2% sh

Kirill Marchenko17G 40A

1.06 xG/60 · 6 HD · 7.8% sh

DET

Alex DeBrincat17G 44A

1.55 xG/60 · 14 HD · 5.9% sh

Emmitt Finnie8G 17A

0.91 xG/60 · 8 HD · 6.7% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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