WARNINGMTL
Paraded to the penalty box
Took 10 penalties for 28 minutes (opponent: 5 for 10).
Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.
The verdict · earned
The Senators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
MTL 3 · OTT 4
Preseason · exhibition
Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.
◆ By the ModelSep 27, 12:22 AMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Ottawa beat Montreal 4-3. Montreal created the better scoring chances from the slot (3–2), yet Ottawa's power play dominance turned the game decisively in their favor.
Even-strength play ran nearly even: Ottawa controlled 59% of expected goals (3.20–2.25). But special teams inverted the result. The Senators converted four power-play goals on 23 shots — all four came off the rush, a possession pattern Montreal's penalty kill couldn't contain.
C. Giroux led with 1 goal and 2 assists in 17:42 of ice. A. Burakovsky chipped in 2 assists across 11:36 of limited minutes. Four different Senators skaters beat J. Dobes with the man advantage; W. Eklund supplied the go-ahead goal at 10:57 of the third.
Montreal struck twice off the rush (two goals in 19 chances) but couldn't overcome the special-teams disparity. S. Pastujov's goal tied the game at 3-3 in the third, yet by that point the Senators had already spent a sixth of the game with a man advantage. Montreal's penalty profile proved catastrophic: ten penalties for ten minutes.
L. Ullmark made 20 saves on 23 for Ottawa; J. Dobes stopped 22 of 26 for Montreal. Both underperformed their expected save percentages — a sign the game outpaced what goaltending could settle.
The goals
- MTL 1–0, 03:49 of the first. B. Berard, deflection from 6 feet, a 22% chance by the model (a rebound), past L. Ullmark. Assists: H. McKown, S. Pastujov. 1 second after a MTL shot by B. Berard. Win probability moved 15 points.
- OTT 1–1, 09:16 of the first on the power play. C. Giroux, slap shot from 40 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Dobes. Assists: T. Chabot, A. Burakovsky. Win probability moved 16 points.
- OTT 1–2, 10:31 of the second on the power play. D. Batherson, slap shot from 30 feet, a 17% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Dobes. Assists: J. Sanderson, C. Giroux. 3 seconds after an OTT faceoff win by C. Giroux. Win probability moved 21 points.
- OTT 1–3, 11:12 of the second on the power play. C. Yakemchuk, wrist shot from 24 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Dobes. Assists: A. Burakovsky, C. Giroux. Win probability moved 14 points.
- MTL 2–3, 05:19 of the third. A. Belzile, backhander from 3 feet, a 32% chance by the model (off the rush), past L. Ullmark. Assists: J. Struble. Win probability moved 13 points.
- MTL 3–3, 07:05 of the third. S. Pastujov, snap shot from 30 feet, a 20% chance by the model (off the rush), past L. Ullmark. Win probability moved 29 points.
- OTT 3–4, 10:57 of the third on the power play. W. Eklund, wrist shot from 6 feet, a 20% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Dobes. Assists: D. Cozens, T. Stützle. Win probability moved 32 points.
What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.