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Motion-blurred skater in a Montreal Canadiens sweater
← Sat, Sep 26 · the slate
Breakdown · OTT at MTL · Preseason

Canadiens hold off the Senators

FinalSat, Sep 26
OTTOttawa Senators2MTLMontreal Canadiens4
The verdict · earned

The Canadiens earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

OTT 2 · MTL 4
Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 27, 12:24 AMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Montreal beat Ottawa 4–2. The scoreboard flattered the Canadiens—they held 56% of expected goals (4.99–3.96), but the underlying margin was tighter than the final score.

Ottawa's luck betrayed them. The Senators generated 3.96 expected goals but scored only 2, a 1.96-goal underperformance that cost them the game. Montreal underperformed their own workload by 0.99, so a tighter contest played out in the numbers.

The gap was Montreal's high-danger finishing. The Canadiens generated 12 scoring chances from the slot; Ottawa managed 7. Montreal converted the difference. J. Fowler, Montreal's starter, stopped every high-danger chance he faced—5 for 5 on the Senators' sharpest attempts. S. Montembeault relieved him and allowed nothing, preventing 1.73 extra goals on her workload. S. Ersson, in goal for Ottawa, stopped 22 of 26 and still outperformed expected by 0.99—not enough against Montreal's efficiency.

Montreal's transition game decided it. The Canadiens scored 2 goals on 21 rush attempts, outscoring Ottawa despite similar volume (Ottawa 2 on 25). With 12:56 left in the third, P. Danault's snap shot from 14 feet—a 23% expected goal chance—gave Montreal a cushion they would not relinquish. N. Dobson and J. Slafkovský had already struck in the third, sealing the result before Ottawa could mount sustained pressure.

Ottawa could not finish its opportunities. The Senators went 0 for 7 on their highest-danger chances—a performance that will not repeat.

Three Stars

  • J. Slafkovský (MTL) — 1G, 2A
  • N. Dobson (MTL) — 1G, 1A
  • M. Matheson (MTL) — 2A

The goals

  • OTT 1–0, 11:54 of the first on the power play. P. Tomasino, snap shot from 15 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Fowler. Assists: C. Kyrou, K. Halttunen. 6 seconds after a MTL faceoff win by J. Evans. J. Fowler was 714 seconds into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 17 points.
  • MTL 1–1, 13:31 of the first. C. Kreider, snap shot from 9 feet, a 20% chance by the model (a rebound), past S. Ersson. Assists: N. Suzuki, M. Matheson. 2 seconds after a MTL shot by N. Suzuki. Win probability moved 17 points.
  • OTT 2–1, 19:19 of the first on the power play. T. Boucher, snap shot from 34 feet, an 11% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Fowler. Assists: X. Bourgault, R. Suzuki. 6 seconds after an OTT faceoff win by R. Suzuki. J. Fowler was 1159 seconds into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 19 points.
  • MTL 2–2, 00:47 of the second on the power play. N. Dobson, slap shot from 52 feet, a 7% chance by the model, past S. Ersson. Assists: J. Slafkovský, C. Caufield. Win probability moved 19 points.
  • MTL 2–3, 06:13 of the third. J. Slafkovský, snap shot from 18 feet, a 23% chance by the model (off the rush), past S. Ersson. Assists: N. Dobson, P. Danault. Win probability moved 28 points.
  • MTL 2–4, 12:56 of the third. P. Danault, snap shot from 14 feet, a 23% chance by the model (off the rush), past S. Ersson. Assists: J. Slafkovský, M. Matheson. Win probability moved 11 points.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Preseason · Sep 26
OTT
2
MTL
4

Canadiens hold off the Senators

Chances 4.0 – 5.0Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Canadiens earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
OTT
3.96
MTL
4.99
44% of the chances56%

The board read OTT 2, MTL 4. The chances read OTT 4.0, MTL 5.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
MTL
−1.0
goals above expected
MTL4.99 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
OTT3.96 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

The Senators left 2.0 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
The swing
+28
win-probability points
53% → 81% for MTL
MTL 100%the game, start to finish
OTT 100%P1 · P2 · P3
MTLP3 06:13

J. Slafkovský makes it 2–3.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 11:54OTTP. TomasinoPP14%1–0
  2. P1 13:31MTLC. Kreider20%1–1
  3. P1 19:19OTTT. BoucherPP11%2–1
  4. P2 00:47MTLN. DobsonPP7%2–2
  5. P3 06:13MTLJ. Slafkovský23%2–3
  6. P3 12:56MTLP. Danault23%2–4
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
OTT
39 shots
2
Final
81 shots
MTL
42 shots
4
OTT attackMTL attack
OTT MTL Goal
39
shots · 2 in
42
shots · 4 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
OTTMTL
0 / 7
1.49 xG
High danger
3 / 12
3.22 xG
2 / 20
2.29 xG
Medium
1 / 14
1.50 xG
0 / 20
0.18 xG
Low
0 / 32
0.26 xG

The Senators went 0 for 7 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
S. Montembeault
+1.7
MTL · 14/14 · 29:17 · in relief
Best save · a 22% chance, snap from 11 ft · P2 13:19
B
J. Fowler
+0.3
MTL · 16/18 · 30:43
Best save · a 23% chance, snap from 18 ft · P2 10:28
+1 more on the full breakdown
Best skater on the ice
A+
MTL
J. Slafkovský
L · impact 2.97
16:59
Ice time
1–2
G – A
0.65
Own xG
65%
xG share
Impact · top 4
J. Slafkovský3.0A+
P. Danault2.3A+
K. Halttunen1.7A+
P. Tomasino1.7A
Report card
OTTMTL
OffenseA+A+
DefenseFF
TransitionC+C
Special teamsA+A+
GoaltendingBA
DisciplineAF
LuckD+B
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why MTL won
  1. 01Dangerous off the rush
  2. 02S. Montembeault tilted the crease
  3. 03J. Fowler was perfect on high danger
Why OTT lost
  1. 01Rush defense leaked all night
  2. 02Cold finishing night
  3. 03Wasted the best looks
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Canadiens hold off the Senators

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 12 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 9–8
  1. 11:54OTTP. Tomasinopower play(C. Kyrou, K. Halttunen)1–0

    Snap shot from 15 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past J. Fowler. 6s after a MTL faceoff win by J. Evans. J. Fowler was 714s into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 17 points.On the ice: B. Hutton, S. Blais, P. Tomasino, R. Greig, N. Matinpalo · against P. Danault, A. Carrier, A. Newhook, L. Mittelstadt, J. Slafkovský, J. Fowler

  2. 13:31MTLC. Kreider(N. Suzuki, M. Matheson)1–1

    Snap shot from 9 feet, a 20% chance (a rebound), past S. Ersson. 2s after a MTL shot by N. Suzuki. Win probability moved 17 points.On the ice: C. Kreider, M. Matheson, N. Suzuki, N. Dobson, C. Caufield, J. Fowler · against C. Crotty, S. Bolduc, P. Daoust, X. Bourgault, J. Cover

  3. 19:19OTTT. Boucherpower play(X. Bourgault, R. Suzuki)2–1

    Snap shot from 34 feet, an 11% chance (off the rush), past J. Fowler. 6s after an OTT faceoff win by R. Suzuki. J. Fowler was 1159s into his shift for the defending side. Win probability moved 19 points.On the ice: B. Hutton, S. Blais, O. Pettersson, K. Halttunen, N. Matinpalo · against E. Samson, O. Beck, M. Szuber, J. Fowler, F. Xhekaj, T. Thorpe

2ndshots 14–10
  1. 00:47MTLN. Dobsonpower play(J. Slafkovský, C. Caufield)2–2

    Slap shot from 52 feet, a 7% chance, a shot that rarely goes in, past S. Ersson. Win probability moved 19 points.On the ice: M. Matheson, J. Anderson, J. Evans, A. Carrier, A. Texier, J. Fowler · against S. Harrington, P. Daoust, X. Bourgault, D. Toure, J. Cover

3rdshots 9–8
  1. 06:13MTLJ. Slafkovský(N. Dobson, P. Danault)2–3

    Snap shot from 18 feet, a 23% chance (off the rush), past S. Ersson. Win probability moved 28 points.On the ice: S. Montembeault, E. Samson, O. Beck, M. Szuber, F. Xhekaj, T. Thorpe · against S. Harrington, P. Daoust, C. Kyrou, O. Pettersson, J. Cover

  2. 12:56MTLP. Danault(J. Slafkovský, M. Matheson)2–4

    Snap shot from 14 feet, a 23% chance (off the rush), past S. Ersson. Win probability moved 11 points.On the ice: S. Montembeault, E. Samson, O. Beck, M. Szuber, F. Xhekaj, T. Thorpe · against B. Hutton, P. Daoust, X. Bourgault, C. Kyrou, O. Pettersson

score reads OTT–MTL

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
4.99
MTL chances
Goals their shots were worth
−1.0
Finishing
Goals below what those chances were worth
1.026
MTL puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
55.2%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.96Expected goals4.99
MTL 56% of the chance quality
32Shots on goal26
7High-danger chances12
47All attempts (Corsi)58
Adjusted for score: OTT 46% · MTL 54%
Faceoffs · MTL won42%off65%neu73%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
OTT0 / 7 · 1.49 xG
MTL3 / 12 · 3.22 xG
Medium dangermid-range
OTT2 / 20 · 2.29 xG
MTL1 / 14 · 1.50 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
OTT0 / 20 · 0.18 xG
MTL0 / 32 · 0.26 xG

OTT went 0-for-7 from high danger on 1.49 expected goals — 1.5 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
OTT
2 G · 3.96 xG · -2.0
MTL
4 G · 4.99 xG · -1.0
0123456

OTT finished -2.0 against expected, MTL -1.0.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
OTT
SNAP2/34
BACKHAND0/2
SLAP0/2
TIP IN0/1
OTHER0/8
MTL
SNAP3/30
BACKHAND0/6
SLAP1/3
TIP IN0/3
OTHER0/16
OTT
MTL
Off the rush
2 G on 25
3.06 xG
2 G on 21
3.10 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 5
0.58 xG
1 G on 6
0.66 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: OTT went 2-for-34, MTL 3-for-30. OTT scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
S. Ersson
OTT · 22/26 · .846
started · 56:38 · loss
+0.2
saved above expected
C
the night
Attempts faced
39
Avg chance faced
10.7%
Stopped vs expected
0.897 vs 0.893
Rebounds allowed
6 · 1 scored on
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger3/102.4-0.6
Medium1/141.5+0.5
Low0/150.3+0.3
Shorthanded1/10.1-0.9
Tips & deflections0/20.1+0.1
The save
32% chance stopped, a backhand from 5 ft · P1 17:04
The one to have back
7% chance went in, a slap from 52 ft · P2 00:47

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Fowler
MTL · 16/18 · .889
started · 30:43
+0.3
saved above expected
B
the night
Attempts faced
23
Avg chance faced
10.0%
Stopped vs expected
0.913 vs 0.900
Rebounds allowed
4
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/51.1+1.1
Medium2/91.1-0.9
Low0/90.2+0.2
Shorthanded2/50.7-1.3
The save
23% chance stopped, a snap from 18 ft · P2 10:28
The one to have back
11% chance went in, a snap from 34 ft · P1 19:19

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

S. Montembeault
MTL · 14/14 · 1.000
in relief · 29:17 · win
+1.7
saved above expected
A
the night
Attempts faced
16
Avg chance faced
10.4%
Stopped vs expected
1.000 vs 0.896
Rebounds allowed
1
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/20.4+0.4
Medium0/111.2+1.2
Low0/30.0+0.0
Shorthanded0/101.3+1.3
Tips & deflections0/10.1+0.1
The save
22% chance stopped, a snap from 11 ft · P2 13:19

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: J. Slafkovský (MTL), 16:59 of ice, 1-2, 65% of the expected goals while he was out.

OTT18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
K. HalttunenR20:110-162A+
P. TomasinoR22:581-057A
C. KyrouD18:430-157A
T. BoucherR15:411-040A
R. GreigC23:250-062B
J. CoverR16:180-049C
B. HuttonD19:400-052C
X. BourgaultR20:500-130C
A. NemecL1:390-00D
O. PetterssonR10:360-050D
R. SuzukiC19:050-130D
C. CrottyD15:470-027D
S. HarringtonD15:330-030D
S. BlaisL17:490-029F
N. MatinpaloD16:330-042F
S. BolducD15:050-023F
D. ToureD10:470-022F
P. DaoustC17:330-019F
MTL18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
J. SlafkovskýL16:591-265A+
P. DanaultC14:021-171A+
L. MittelstadtD20:070-087A
N. DobsonD26:111-142A
M. MathesonD26:020-242B
C. KreiderL15:211-042B
A. CarrierD19:260-084B
O. BeckC13:020-071B
A. TexierL12:040-090B
N. SuzukiC18:050-135B
J. EvansC13:120-057C
C. CaufieldR17:060-139C
T. ThorpeR10:220-086C
F. XhekajL13:230-066C
A. NewhookC15:190-057C
E. SamsonD12:340-055D
M. SzuberD15:000-060D
J. AndersonR12:250-042D

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, OTT: C. Giroux, N. Cousins, L. Ullmark, K. MacDermid, A. Burakovsky, W. Foegele and 48 more. Scratched, MTL: A. Belzile, V. Arseneau, L. Dauphin, K. Kahkonen, R. Walsh, K. Mandolese and 64 more. Referees Kendrick Nicholson and Mike Sullivan; linesmen Brandon Grillo and Ryan Daisy.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F
DimensionOTTMTL
Offense
▸Basis

OTT Created 3.96 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 7 high-danger shots (1.49 xG) and 25 rush shots (3.06 xG).

MTL Created 4.99 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 12 high-danger shots (3.22 xG) and 21 rush shots (3.10 xG).

A+
99
A+
100
Defense
▸Basis

OTT Allowed 4.99 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 12 high-danger shots (3.22 xG) and 21 rush shots (3.10 xG).

MTL Allowed 3.96 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 7 high-danger shots (1.49 xG) and 25 rush shots (3.06 xG).

F
34
F
51
Transition
▸Basis

OTT Rush shots 25–21, rush xG 3.06–3.10 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

MTL Rush shots 21–25, rush xG 3.10–3.06 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

C+
77
C
73
Special teams
▸Basis

OTT 2-for-5 on the power play (40%; league ≈21%) with 1.81 PP xG.

MTL 1-for-1 on the power play (100%; league ≈21%) with 0.07 PP xG.

A+
100
A+
100
Goaltending
▸Basis

OTT +0.99 goals saved above expected on 26 shots against.

MTL +1.96 goals saved above expected on 32 shots against.

B
85
A
95
Discipline
▸Basis

OTT Took 4 penalties for 11 PIM vs 8 for 19 on the other side.

MTL Took 8 penalties for 19 PIM vs 4 for 11 on the other side.

A
95
F
55
Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

OTT Finishing -1.96 goals vs xG plus +0.99 GSAx of save luck = -0.97 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

MTL Finishing -0.99 goals vs xG plus +1.96 GSAx of save luck = +0.97 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

D+
67
B
83
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
What the model flagged
WARNINGOTT

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 21 rush shots worth 3.10 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

WARNINGMTL

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 25 rush shots worth 3.06 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHMTL

Dangerous off the rush

2 goals on 21 rush shots worth 3.10 xG.

STRENGTHOTT

Dangerous off the rush

2 goals on 25 rush shots worth 3.06 xG.

LUCKOTT

Wasted the best looks

0-for-7 on high-danger chances worth 1.49 xG — that conversion rate won't stay at zero.

LUCKOTT

Cold finishing night

Scored 2 on 3.96 xG — -1.96 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.

81 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
OTT
39 shots
2
Final
81 shots
MTL
42 shots
4
OTT attackMTL attack
OTT MTL Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — OTT left, MTL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
J. Slafkovský
#20 · L · MTL
1 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 16:59 on ice · +2
N. Dobson
#53 · D · MTL
1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 26:11 on ice · +2
M. Matheson
#8 · D · MTL
0 G · 2 A · 4 SOG · 26:02 on ice · +3
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Sep 26
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Model draft
Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The rates below are last season's; this exhibition will not count toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 26, 2:13 PMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a OTT 3.3 - 3.2 MTL game with the Senators at 52% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Keys to the game

  • Leevi Meriläinen has leaked goals all season. Leevi Meriläinen: -17.0 GSAx over 20 games.
  • Cole Caufield drives the Canadiens offense. Cole Caufield: 33G 37A, 1.50 xG/60, 15 high-danger goals.
  • Dylan Cozens drives the Senators offense. Dylan Cozens: 13G 31A, 1.15 xG/60, 4 high-danger goals.

Season 5v5 Numbers

MetricOTTMTL
xG%54.8%49.7%
Corsi%52.6%48.2%
PDO0.9931.019

Rates from 2025-26 — the 2026-27 sample isn't live yet.

Where the Edges Live

  • The Senators own the underlying play — 54.8% 5v5 xG vs 49.7%.
  • The Senators drive Corsi at 52.6% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression Watch

  • The Canadiens' PDO is 1.019 — running hot, expect some regression.

Goaltending Matchup

  • Goalie matchup: L. Ullmark (-8.6 GSAx in 49 GP, 89.1% SV) vs S. Montembeault (-4.6 GSAx in 25 GP, 87.2% SV).
  • S. Montembeault has struggled — 87.2% SV over 25 starts.
  • L. Ullmark has struggled — 89.1% SV over 49 starts.

Players to Watch

OTT

  • Dylan Cozens — 1.15 xG/60, 13G 31A, 4 HD goals, 6.3% shooting
  • Fabian Zetterlund — 0.89 xG/60, 12G 16A, 3 HD goals, 9.1% shooting

MTL

  • Cole Caufield — 1.50 xG/60, 33G 37A, 15 HD goals, 12.8% shooting
  • Juraj Slafkovský — 1.32 xG/60, 11G 43A, 16 HD goals, 6.1% shooting

Key Matchups

OTT

  • OTT scores 48% of goals from HD — collapse and protect the slot
  • Their goalie (Linus Ullmark) leaks HD — 81.9% HD SV. Get to the slot.

MTL

  • Key matchup: Neutralize Cole Caufield (33G, 1.50 xG/60, 15 HD goals)
  • Watch Juraj Slafkovský (11G, 6.1% shooting)

Tactical Notes

  • OTT: 0% HD goal rate, 0% rebound goal rate
  • OTT defensive weak link: Fabian Zetterlund
  • MTL: 1% HD goal rate, 0% rebound goal rate
  • MTL defensive weak link: Adam Engstrom

Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

OTT 52%
52%
OTT
Model favorite
52%
48%
OTT50MTL

OTT by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score OTT 3.3–3.2 MTL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
OTT← edge
edge →MTL
54.8%49.7%
52.6%48.2%
3.343.28
2.753.32
3.353.40
2.993.06
0.9931.019

OTT holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.993 vs 1.019) says MTL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · No games yet
OTT
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
MTL
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
0.993
OTT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.019
MTL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

WARNINGOTT

Leevi Meriläinen has leaked goals all season

Leevi Meriläinen: -17.0 GSAx over 20 games.

Shoot from everywhere — volume beats a cold crease.

STRENGTHMTL

Cole Caufield drives the Canadiens offense

Cole Caufield: 33G 37A, 1.50 xG/60, 15 high-danger goals.

TACTICALOTT

Shutdown Assignment: Senators

Highest individual xG/60 on MTL. Gets 56 HD shots. Limit slot access.

Key matchup: Neutralize Cole Caufield (33G, 1.50 xG/60, 15 HD goals)

STRENGTHOTT

Dylan Cozens drives the Senators offense

Dylan Cozens: 13G 31A, 1.15 xG/60, 4 high-danger goals.

Where the edges live
  • The Senators own the underlying play — 54.8% 5v5 xG vs 49.7%.
  • The Senators drive Corsi at 52.6% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
  • The Canadiens' PDO is 1.019 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
  • The Senators own the underlying play — 54.8% 5v5 xG vs 49.7%.
  • The Senators drive Corsi at 52.6% — expect territorial tilt.
  • Goalie matchup: L. Ullmark (-8.6 GSAx in 49 GP, 89.1% SV) vs S. Montembeault (-4.6 GSAx in 25 GP, 87.2% SV).
  • S. Montembeault has struggled — 87.2% SV over 25 starts.
  • The Canadiens' PDO is 1.019 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
OTT
preseason · vs TOR · Wed, Sep 23
Expected in goal
L. Ullmark
2 days rest.870 last start58:50 played
Backup Leevi Meriläinen · -17.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
  • R. Suzuki10:04
  • F. Zetterlund15:34
  • N. Cousins12:06
  • D. Cozens19:19
  • W. Eklund20:16
  • C. Giroux18:21
  • S. Halliday15:30
  • X. Bourgault13:21
  • T. Boucher12:26
  • B. Montgomery13:16
  • R. Greig17:52
  • S. Blais11:31
Defence · 6
  • C. Crotty18:25
  • B. Hutton22:31
  • H. Stanley19:30
  • D. Toure19:46
  • M. Andonovski15:23
  • T. Hamara19:16
MTL
preseason · vs OTT · Mon, Sep 21
Expected in goal
S. Montembeault
4 days rest.875 last start32:48 played
S. Montembeault started last game and was relieved by J. Dobes (30:31 of it).
Backup Jakub Dobes · +7.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
  • C. Caufield
  • N. Suzuki
  • A. Newhook
  • J. Slafkovský
  • B. Berard
  • S. Pastujov
  • F. Xhekaj
  • Z. Bolduc
  • K. Dach
  • A. Texier
  • O. Kapanen
  • I. Demidov
Defence · 6
  • A. Engstrom
  • J. Struble
  • L. Hutson
  • N. Dobson
  • D. Reinbacher
  • A. Xhekaj

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
OTT
Dylan Cozens13G 31A
1.15 xG/60 · 4 HD · 6.3% sh
Fabian Zetterlund12G 16A
0.89 xG/60 · 3 HD · 9.1% sh
MTL
Cole Caufield33G 37A
1.50 xG/60 · 15 HD · 12.8% sh
Juraj Slafkovský11G 43A
1.32 xG/60 · 16 HD · 6.1% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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