WARNINGNYI
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 29 rush shots worth 2.64 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
The verdict · earned
The Devils earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
NJD 4 · NYI 1
Preseason · exhibition
Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.
◆ By the ModelSep 27, 12:26 AMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Expected goals split 3.19–3.62 in favor of the Devils — a slight edge — yet the final score read 4–1 because J. Allen stole the whole thing.
J. Allen saved 2.19 goals above what his expected save percentage should have allowed. The Islanders squeezed more value from fewer chances — 0.084 expected goals per shot versus 0.059 for New Jersey — but finished just one goal despite generating 4 dangerous scoring chances to the Devils' 7. I. Sorokin's save percentage of 0.846 couldn't match Allen's theft.
The Devils leaned on their transition. They scored three times off the rush on 29 chances, the kind of conversion rate that wins games but rarely sustains. E. Rodrigues and J. Siegenthaler each picked up two assists, turning opportunity into goals.
The power play cashed in early. L. Evangelista scored twice, once on the man advantage in the first period and again early in the second — both low-danger looks converted because the Devils executed timing. The second came just four seconds after a J. Siegenthaler shot, the kind of chaos that feeds finishing.
New York held 37% of shot attempts (15–26 on goal) but couldn't capitalize. S. Holmstrom's third-period goal was the only answer to the barrage. The Islanders underperformed their expected goal total by 2.19 — a chasm between quality and result that Allen filled.
The goals
- NJD 1–0, 06:13 of the first on the power play. L. Evangelista, wrist shot from 15 feet, a 17% chance by the model (off the rush), past I. Sorokin. Assists: J. Hughes, L. Hughes. Win probability moved 15 points.
- NJD 2–0, 00:42 of the second. A. Gritsyuk, wrist shot from 37 feet, a 6% chance by the model (off the rush), past I. Sorokin. Assists: E. Rodrigues. Win probability moved 15 points.
- NJD 3–0, 01:01 of the second. L. Evangelista, wrist shot from 5 feet, a 23% chance by the model, past I. Sorokin. Assists: N. Hischier, J. Siegenthaler. 4 seconds after a NJD shot by J. Siegenthaler. Win probability moved 10 points.
- NJD 4–0, 14:48 of the second. D. Hamilton, snap shot from 13 feet, a 22% chance by the model (off the rush), past I. Sorokin. Assists: J. Siegenthaler, E. Rodrigues.
- NYI 4–1, 15:21 of the third. S. Holmstrom, wrist shot from 22 feet, a 17% chance by the model, past J. Allen. Assists: K. Palmieri, B. Horvat. 9 seconds after a NYI missed shot by S. Holmstrom.
What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.