Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 22 rush shots worth 2.42 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.
Edmonton's 4-1 victory over Calgary appeared to settle the matter, but the underlying metrics suggested a far closer contest. The Oilers' expected goals edge was marginal — 3.03 to 2.91 — yet they won by three. Goaltending decided the game.
D. Levi was 1.91 goals better than the model expected. D. Wolf was 0.97 goals worse than expected. The gap between them accounted for the margin.
The Oilers were dangerous in transition, building 22 rush chances and converting four into goals, while Calgary couldn't capitalize on comparable opportunities. They held 54% of shot attempts (28-24 on goal). The Oilers generated 0.062 expected goals per shot versus Calgary's 0.043.
On the power play, both teams cashed in. Z. Hyman scored early on the man advantage, and C. McDavid added a second-period five-on-four goal. M. Coronato answered for Calgary late, but Edmonton's finishing and Calgary's goaltending struggles had already settled it.
What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.
Oilers pull away from the Flames
Dead even on chances. The Oilers took it anyway.
The board read CGY 1, EDM 4. The chances read CGY 2.9, EDM 3.0.
The Flames left 1.9 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.
Z. Hyman makes it 0–1.
High-danger looks: CGY 1 of 2, EDM 0 of 2.
Oilers pull away from the Flames
A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.
Read the full breakdownWrist shot from 6 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past D. Wolf. Win probability moved 17 points.On the ice: M. Joseph, R. Shea, A. Formenton, S. Mukhamadullin, C. Dach · against J. Middleton, M. Pospisil, A. Klapka, Z. Parekh, M. Tsyplakov
Snap shot from 25 feet, a 5% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past D. Wolf. 8s after a CGY giveaway by J. Middleton. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: C. Murphy, K. Kapanen, J. Walman, T. Frederic, O. Michaels · against M. Backlund, Z. Whitecloud, J. Farabee, Y. Kuznetsov, S. Honzek
Slap shot from 41 feet, an 8% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past D. Wolf. Win probability moved 7 points.On the ice: M. Joseph, R. Shea, A. Formenton, S. Mukhamadullin, C. Dach · against R. Strome, Z. Whitecloud, Y. Sharangovich, C. Zary, Y. Kuznetsov
Snap shot from 13 feet, a 20% chance (off the rush), past D. Levi.On the ice: R. Strome, K. Bahl, Y. Sharangovich, C. Zary, S. Nemec · against Z. Hyman, R. Nugent-Hopkins, L. Draisaitl, J. Walman, S. Mukhamadullin
Wrist shot from 9 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past D. Wolf. 10s after a CGY block.On the ice: C. Murphy, J. Walman, V. Podkolzin, O. Michaels · against R. Strome, K. Bahl, Y. Sharangovich, Z. Parekh
score reads CGY–EDM
CGY went 0-for-22 from medium danger on 2.00 expected goals — 2.0 left on the table.
CGY finished -1.9 against expected, EDM +1.0.
Wrist shots carried the volume: CGY went 0-for-20, EDM 2-for-20. EDM scored 4 of theirs off the rush.
Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.
The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
Best skater on the ice by our rating: C. McDavid (EDM), 19:33 of ice, 1-1, 64% of the expected goals while he was out.
| Skater | TOI | G-A | SOG | ixG | xG% | PD/PT | Impact | /60 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. FarabeeL | 15:29 | 0-1 | 2 | 0.29 | 62 | 0/0 | 1.03 | 3.98 | A |
| M. CoronatoR | 16:46 | 1-0 | 3 | 0.42 | 43 | 0/0 | 1.01 | 3.63 | A |
| M. GridinR | 15:42 | 0-1 | 1 | 0.13 | 42 | 0/0 | 0.72 | 2.76 | B |
| M. TsyplakovR | 13:49 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.30 | 55 | 0/0 | 0.47 | 2.04 | B |
| M. BacklundC | 16:07 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.17 | 45 | 1/0 | 0.33 | 1.23 | B |
| Z. ParekhD | 21:07 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.29 | 55 | 0/0 | 0.33 | 0.93 | C |
| S. HonzekL | 14:26 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.31 | 57 | 0/0 | 0.28 | 1.16 | C |
| C. ZaryC | 16:45 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.03 | 59 | 1/0 | 0.25 | 0.91 | C |
| M. FrostC | 15:54 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.19 | 53 | 0/0 | 0.23 | 0.85 | C |
| R. StromeC | 16:06 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.17 | 52 | 0/0 | 0.17 | 0.65 | C |
| Y. SharangovichC | 15:45 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.09 | 52 | 0/0 | 0.13 | 0.49 | D |
| M. PospisilC | 11:29 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.17 | 48 | 0/0 | 0.10 | 0.51 | D |
| A. KlapkaR | 13:09 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.10 | 48 | 0/0 | 0.10 | 0.46 | D |
| J. MiddletonD | 15:05 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.01 | 46 | 0/0 | 0.05 | 0.21 | D |
| Z. WhitecloudD | 17:45 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.03 | 44 | 0/0 | 0.04 | 0.14 | D |
| Y. KuznetsovD | 17:42 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.14 | 46 | 0/0 | -0.04 | -0.15 | F |
| S. NemecD | 23:31 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.08 | 39 | 1/1 | -0.13 | -0.33 | F |
| K. BahlD | 21:00 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 50 | 0/1 | -0.15 | -0.44 | F |
| Skater | TOI | G-A | SOG | ixG | xG% | PD/PT | Impact | /60 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McDavidC | 19:33 | 1-1 | 6 | 0.77 | 64 | 0/0 | 2.55 | 7.81 | A+ |
| K. KapanenR | 15:31 | 1-1 | 1 | 0.14 | 28 | 1/0 | 1.49 | 5.77 | A+ |
| V. PodkolzinR | 15:34 | 0-1 | 2 | 0.47 | 73 | 0/0 | 1.39 | 5.34 | A+ |
| E. BouchardD | 23:22 | 0-1 | 4 | 0.23 | 67 | 0/0 | 1.44 | 3.70 | A |
| L. DraisaitlC | 18:58 | 0-1 | 2 | 0.17 | 63 | 0/0 | 1.33 | 4.20 | A |
| R. Nugent-HopkinsC | 16:50 | 0-2 | 1 | 0.12 | 22 | 0/0 | 1.10 | 3.92 | A |
| R. SheaD | 18:09 | 1-0 | 1 | 0.08 | 41 | 0/0 | 0.87 | 2.89 | B |
| Z. HymanL | 15:33 | 1-0 | 2 | 0.22 | 26 | 1/1 | 0.77 | 2.96 | B |
| M. EkholmD | 20:16 | 0-1 | 0 | 0.00 | 54 | 0/0 | 0.79 | 2.32 | B |
| O. MichaelsR | 10:56 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.34 | 52 | 0/0 | 0.39 | 2.12 | B |
| J. WalmanD | 19:48 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.02 | 49 | 0/0 | 0.28 | 0.85 | C |
| T. FredericC | 10:21 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.06 | 57 | 0/0 | 0.16 | 0.95 | C |
| A. FormentonL | 12:43 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.20 | 52 | 0/1 | 0.18 | 0.84 | C |
| S. MukhamadullinD | 16:29 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 58 | 0/0 | 0.14 | 0.49 | D |
| M. JosephR | 12:19 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 48 | 0/0 | 0.04 | 0.22 | D |
| I. HowardL | 12:39 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.07 | 47 | 0/0 | 0.04 | 0.20 | D |
| C. DachC | 12:41 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 47 | 0/0 | -0.03 | -0.12 | F |
| C. MurphyD | 21:44 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.13 | 34 | 0/1 | -0.16 | -0.43 | F |
xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.
Scratched, CGY: J. Huberdeau, R. Rafikov, J. Hanley, L. Philp, P. Karnaukhov, A. Gallant and 36 more. Scratched, EDM: F. Andersen, S. Griffith, M. Janmark, J. Dickinson, T. Jarry, M. Jones and 32 more. Referees Chris Schlenker and Riley Brace; linesmen Bevan Mills and Trent Knorr.
CGY Created 2.91 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.38 xG) and 33 rush shots (2.59 xG).
EDM Created 3.03 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.38 xG) and 22 rush shots (2.42 xG).
CGY Allowed 3.03 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.38 xG) and 22 rush shots (2.42 xG).
EDM Allowed 2.91 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.38 xG) and 33 rush shots (2.59 xG).
CGY Rush shots 33–22, rush xG 2.59–2.42 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
EDM Rush shots 22–33, rush xG 2.42–2.59 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
CGY 1-for-3 on the power play (33%; league ≈21%) with 0.79 PP xG.
EDM 1-for-1 on the power play (100%; league ≈21%) with 0.14 PP xG.
CGY -0.97 goals saved above expected on 28 shots against.
EDM +1.91 goals saved above expected on 24 shots against.
CGY Took 2 penalties for 4 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.
EDM Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 2 for 4 on the other side.
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
CGY Finishing -1.91 goals vs xG plus -0.97 GSAx of save luck = -2.88 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
EDM Finishing +0.97 goals vs xG plus +1.91 GSAx of save luck = +2.88 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
Gave up 22 rush shots worth 2.42 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
4 goals on 22 rush shots worth 2.42 xG.
Gave up 33 rush shots worth 2.59 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
1 goals on 33 rush shots worth 2.59 xG.
Scored 1 on 2.91 xG — -1.91 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.
D. Levi stopped 23 of 24 (0.958), +1.91 goals above expected.
Each club shoots toward its own end — CGY left, EDM right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.
Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The rates below are last season's; this exhibition will not count toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.
The model projects a CGY 3.0 - 3.5 EDM game with the Oilers at 58% win probability.
Keys to the game
| Metric | CGY | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 46.5% | 52.2% |
| Corsi% | 49.2% | 50.2% |
| PDO | 0.984 | 0.981 |
Rates from 2025-26 — the 2026-27 sample isn't live yet.
CGY
EDM
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
EDM by 16 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score CGY 3.0–3.5 EDM; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
EDM holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.984 vs 0.981) says CGY has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
The Oilers own the underlying play — 52.2% 5v5 xG vs 46.5%.
High-danger team. Prioritize net-front battles and box-outs over shot-blocking.
CGY scores 42% of goals from HD — collapse and protect the slot
Below-average on high-danger saves. Prioritize quality over quantity.
Their goalie (Devin Cooley) leaks HD — 79.7% HD SV. Get to the slot.
High-danger team. Prioritize net-front battles and box-outs over shot-blocking.
EDM scores 59% of goals from HD — collapse and protect the slot
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.