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Motion-blurred skater in a San Jose Sharks sweater
← Sat, Sep 26 · the slate
Breakdown · SJS at VGK · Preseason

Sharks hold off the Golden Knights

FinalSat, Sep 26
SJSSan Jose Sharks4VGKVegas Golden Knights2
The verdict · stolen

The Sharks stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 1.69–4.01 and won anyway.

SJS 4 · VGK 2
Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 27, 12:41 AMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

San Jose stole one. The Sharks beat the Golden Knights 4-2 in a game that looked like a loss until the final horn—Vegas owned the play, but Y. Askarov wouldn't let it matter.

Vegas should have won. The Golden Knights controlled 70% of expected goals and created more high-danger chances than San Jose allowed. Y. Askarov stopped 28 of 30 shots, saving 2.01 goals above what his workload should have asked. C. Hart faced 17 and let in 4, allowing 2.31 more than expected. The goaltending gap decided it.

The Sharks had one edge: the rush. They scored four times from chances the models rated low-danger, where speed and positioning trump volume. M. Celebrini, M. Marchment, and M. Misa each scored. The Golden Knights had the volume (64% of shot attempts) and the quality (70% of expected goals at 5v5), but neither adds up without finishing.

The Golden Knights' best chance came in the second period. T. Hertl scored on a rebound with an 82% conversion rate at 17:24. N. Dowd tied it in the third on a decent look (22% expected goals). Two goals from 4.01 expected tells you what went wrong: the process was sound, the execution wasn't. San Jose made their 1.69 count, turning what the model rated as low-probability shots into goals when the margins mattered.

This is what stealing looks like. Vegas ran the table on process and San Jose executed better. Y. Askarov was the margin.

The goals

  • SJS 1–0, 19:20 of the first on the power play. D. Orlov, wrist shot from 49 feet, a 1% chance by the model (off the rush), past C. Hart. Assists: M. Celebrini, A. Wennberg. Win probability moved 19 points.
  • SJS 2–0, 06:45 of the second. M. Celebrini, wrist shot from 33 feet, a 10% chance by the model (off the rush), past C. Hart. Assists: W. Smith, M. Marchment. Win probability moved 16 points.
  • VGK 2–1, 17:24 of the second on the power play. T. Hertl, backhander from 2 feet, an 82% chance by the model (a rebound), past Y. Askarov. Assists: S. Theodore, C. Hart. 1 second after a VGK shot by S. Theodore. Win probability moved 16 points.
  • VGK 2–2, 03:18 of the third. N. Dowd, snap shot from 26 feet, a 22% chance by the model (off the rush), past Y. Askarov. Assists: B. Howden, I. Barbashev. Win probability moved 28 points.
  • SJS 3–2, 09:47 of the third. M. Marchment, wrist shot from 23 feet, a 1% chance by the model (off the rush), past C. Hart. Assists: D. Nurse. Win probability moved 33 points.
  • SJS 4–2, 14:54 of the third. M. Misa, wrist shot from 30 feet, an 11% chance by the model (off the rush), past C. Hart. Assists: I. Chernyshov, T. Toffoli. Win probability moved 12 points.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Preseason · Sep 26
SJS
4
VGK
2

Sharks hold off the Golden Knights

Chances 1.7 – 4.0Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Golden Knights deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
SJS
1.69
VGK
4.01
30% of the chances70%

The board read SJS 4, VGK 2. The chances read SJS 1.7, VGK 4.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
SJS
+2.3
goals above expected
SJS1.69 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
VGK4.01 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

The Sharks scored 2.3 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
The swing
+33
win-probability points
47% → 80% for SJS
VGK 100%the game, start to finish
SJS 100%P1 · P2 · P3
SJSP3 09:47

M. Marchment makes it 3–2.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 19:20SJSD. OrlovPP1%1–0
  2. P2 06:45SJSM. Celebrini10%2–0
  3. P2 17:24VGKT. HertlPP82%2–1
  4. P3 03:18VGKN. Dowd22%2–2
  5. P3 09:47SJSM. Marchment1%3–2
  6. P3 14:54SJSM. Misa11%4–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
SJS
25 shots
4
Final
67 shots
VGK
42 shots
2
SJS attackVGK attack
SJS VGK Goal
25
shots · 4 in
42
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
SJSVGK
0 / 2
0.39 xG
High danger
2 / 4
1.53 xG
2 / 10
1.04 xG
Medium
0 / 18
1.96 xG
2 / 24
0.25 xG
Low
0 / 39
0.52 xG

High-danger looks: SJS 0 of 2, VGK 2 of 4.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
Y. Askarov
+2.0
SJS · 28/30 · 60:00
Best save · a 30% chance, wrist from 10 ft · P3 19:59
F
C. Hart
−2.3
VGK · 13/17 · 57:44
Best save · a 20% chance, snap from 22 ft · P3 06:53
Best skater on the ice
A+
VGK
T. Hertl
C · impact 1.49
17:10
Ice time
1–0
G – A
0.95
Own xG
87%
xG share
Impact · top 4
T. Hertl1.5A+
B. Howden1.2A+
N. Dowd1.2A+
W. Karlsson1.3A
Report card
SJSVGK
OffenseDA+
DefenseFB
TransitionFA+
Special teamsB+B
GoaltendingAF
DisciplineDB
LuckA+F
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why SJS won
  1. 01Won against the run of play
  2. 02Y. Askarov stole it
  3. 03Dangerous off the rush
Why VGK lost
  1. 01Deserved a better fate
  2. 02C. Hart couldn't make the stop
  3. 03Rush defense leaked all night
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Sharks hold off the Golden Knights

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 12 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 2–13
  1. 19:20SJSD. Orlovpower play(M. Celebrini, A. Wennberg)1–0

    Wrist shot from 49 feet, a 1% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past C. Hart. Win probability moved 19 points.On the ice: B. Goodrow, J. Trouba, K. Sherwood, N. Allan, Z. Ostapchuk · against M. Stone, I. Barbashev, N. Hanifin, J. Eichel, J. Lauzon

2ndshots 3–12
  1. 06:45SJSM. Celebrini(W. Smith, M. Marchment)2–0

    Wrist shot from 33 feet, a 10% chance (off the rush), past C. Hart. Win probability moved 16 points.On the ice: D. Orlov, T. Toffoli, S. Dickinson, I. Chernyshov, M. Misa · against B. McNabb, M. Stone, S. Theodore, I. Barbashev, J. Eichel

  2. 17:24VGKT. Hertlpower play(S. Theodore, C. Hart)2–1

    Backhander from 2 feet, an 82% chance, a near-certain one (a rebound), past Y. Askarov. 1s after a VGK shot by S. Theodore. Win probability moved 16 points.On the ice: W. Karlsson, V. Olofsson, R. Andersson, P. Wotherspoon, B. Howden · against D. Nurse, M. Marchment, M. Kesselring, W. Smith, M. Celebrini

3rdshots 12–5
  1. 03:18VGKN. Dowd(B. Howden, I. Barbashev)2–2

    Snap shot from 26 feet, a 22% chance (off the rush), past Y. Askarov. Win probability moved 28 points.On the ice: N. Dowd, I. Barbashev, N. Hanifin, J. Lauzon, B. Howden · against D. Orlov, T. Toffoli, S. Dickinson, I. Chernyshov, M. Misa

  2. 09:47SJSM. Marchment(D. Nurse)3–2

    Wrist shot from 23 feet, a 1% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past C. Hart. Win probability moved 33 points.

  3. 14:54SJSM. Misa(I. Chernyshov, T. Toffoli)4–2

    Wrist shot from 30 feet, an 11% chance (off the rush), past C. Hart. Win probability moved 12 points.

score reads SJS–VGK

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
1.69
SJS chances
Goals their shots were worth
+2.3
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.078
SJS puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
37.1%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

1.69Expected goals4.01
VGK 70% of the chance quality
17Shots on goal30
2High-danger chances4
36All attempts (Corsi)61
Adjusted for score: SJS 34% · VGK 66%
Faceoffs · VGK won50%off54%neu39%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
SJS0 / 2 · 0.39 xG
VGK2 / 4 · 1.53 xG
Medium dangermid-range
SJS2 / 10 · 1.04 xG
VGK0 / 18 · 1.96 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
SJS2 / 24 · 0.25 xG
VGK0 / 39 · 0.52 xG

VGK went 0-for-18 from medium danger on 1.96 expected goals — 2.0 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
SJS
4 G · 1.69 xG · +2.3
VGK
2 G · 4.01 xG · -2.0
012345

SJS finished +2.3 against expected, VGK -2.0.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
SJS
WRIST4/13
SNAP0/3
TIP IN0/2
SLAP0/3
BACKHAND0/2
DEFLECTED0/2
WRAP AROUND0/0
OTHER0/11
VGK
WRIST0/22
SNAP1/8
TIP IN0/5
SLAP0/3
BACKHAND1/2
DEFLECTED0/1
WRAP AROUND0/1
OTHER0/19
SJS
VGK
Off the rush
4 G on 17
1.27 xG
1 G on 32
2.84 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 2
0.24 xG
1 G on 2
0.88 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: SJS went 4-for-13, VGK 0-for-22. SJS scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
Y. Askarov
SJS · 28/30 · .933
started · 60:00 · win
+2.0
saved above expected
A
the night
Attempts faced
42
Avg chance faced
9.6%
Stopped vs expected
0.952 vs 0.904
Rebounds allowed
2 · 1 scored on
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/41.5-0.5
Medium0/182.0+2.0
Low0/200.5+0.5
Shorthanded1/152.4+1.4
Tips & deflections0/60.4+0.4
The save
30% chance stopped, a wrist from 10 ft · P3 19:59
The one to have back
22% chance went in, a snap from 26 ft · P3 03:18

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

C. Hart
VGK · 13/17 · .765
started · 57:44 · loss
-2.3
saved above expected
F
the night
Attempts faced
25
Avg chance faced
6.8%
Stopped vs expected
0.840 vs 0.932
Rebounds allowed
2
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/20.4+0.4
Medium2/101.0-1.0
Low2/130.3-1.8
Shorthanded1/50.4-0.6
Tips & deflections0/40.3+0.3
The save
20% chance stopped, a snap from 22 ft · P3 06:53
The one to have back
1% chance went in, a wrist from 49 ft · P1 19:20

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: T. Hertl (VGK), 17:10 of ice, 1-0, 87% of the expected goals while he was out.

SJS18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
M. CelebriniC19:031-122B
M. MisaC9:421-035B
M. MarchmentL16:051-15B
I. ChernyshovL12:110-139B
D. OrlovD19:101-050C
A. WennbergC17:580-136C
T. ToffoliC9:530-129C
W. SmithC15:510-124C
D. NurseD20:470-18D
S. DickinsonD16:440-026D
I. StenbergL13:370-018D
K. SherwoodL13:500-024D
N. AllanD18:180-010D
B. GoodrowC15:180-029F
C. GrafR18:130-06F
Z. OstapchukC13:500-033F
J. TroubaD18:080-012F
M. KesselringD22:240-08F
VGK18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
T. HertlC17:101-087A+
B. HowdenC11:030-193A+
N. DowdC11:181-078A+
W. KarlssonC18:550-080A
I. BarbashevL12:150-170A
S. TheodoreD22:080-171A
R. AnderssonD19:300-099A
V. OlofssonL13:390-097A
J. EichelC22:370-081B
T. ConnellyL14:050-092B
P. WotherspoonD18:220-097B
M. MarnerR21:440-066C
N. HanifinD16:320-069C
M. StoneR18:540-079C
B. BowmanR14:540-087C
J. LauzonD15:060-064D
M. GatcombC10:580-056D
B. McNabbD18:170-057D

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, SJS: L. Couture, R. McKeown, I. Samsonov, A. Gaudette, A. Barré-Boulet, K. Keyser and 45 more. Scratched, VGK: A. Pietrangelo, B. Hickey, A. Hill, M. Dzierkals, L. Johansen, T. Laczynski and 32 more. Referees Cody Beach and Jordan Samuels Thomas; linesmen Ryan Gibbons and Shawn Oliver.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F
DimensionSJSVGK
Offense
▸Basis

SJS Created 1.69 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.39 xG) and 17 rush shots (1.27 xG).

VGK Created 4.01 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 4 high-danger shots (1.53 xG) and 32 rush shots (2.84 xG).

D
64
A+
98
Defense
▸Basis

SJS Allowed 4.01 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 4 high-danger shots (1.53 xG) and 32 rush shots (2.84 xG).

VGK Allowed 1.69 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.39 xG) and 17 rush shots (1.27 xG).

F
52
B
86
Transition
▸Basis

SJS Rush shots 17–32, rush xG 1.27–2.84 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

VGK Rush shots 32–17, rush xG 2.84–1.27 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

F
52
A+
98
Special teams
▸Basis

SJS 1-for-3 on the power play (33%; league ≈21%) with 0.41 PP xG.

VGK 1-for-5 on the power play (20%; league ≈21%) with 1.95 PP xG.

B+
87
B
84
Goaltending
▸Basis

SJS +2.01 goals saved above expected on 30 shots against.

VGK -2.31 goals saved above expected on 17 shots against.

A
95
F
52
Discipline
▸Basis

SJS Took 6 penalties for 12 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.

VGK Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 6 for 12 on the other side.

D
65
B
85
Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

SJS Finishing +2.31 goals vs xG plus +2.01 GSAx of save luck = +4.32 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

VGK Finishing -2.01 goals vs xG plus -2.31 GSAx of save luck = -4.32 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

A+
100
F
40
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
What the model flagged
SURPRISESJS

Won against the run of play

The Sharks took it 4-2 with only 30% of expected goals (1.69–4.01).

WARNINGVGK

Deserved a better fate

The Golden Knights controlled 70% of expected goals (4.01 to 1.69) and still lost — the process was there, the finish wasn't.

Change nothing structurally — this loss was variance, not process.

WARNINGVGK

C. Hart couldn't make the stop

C. Hart allowed 4 on 17 shots (0.765) — 2.31 goals worse than expected.

Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.

STRENGTHSJS

Y. Askarov stole it

Y. Askarov stopped 28 of 30 (0.933) — +2.01 goals saved above expected in a 2-goal game.

WARNINGSJS

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 32 rush shots worth 2.84 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

WARNINGVGK

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 17 rush shots worth 1.27 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

67 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
SJS
25 shots
4
Final
67 shots
VGK
42 shots
2
SJS attackVGK attack
SJS VGK Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — SJS left, VGK right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
M. Celebrini
#71 · C · SJS
1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 19:03 on ice · +1
M. Marchment
#27 · L · SJS
1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 16:05 on ice · +1
S. Theodore
#27 · D · VGK
0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 22:08 on ice · -3
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Sep 26
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Model draft
Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The rates below are last season's; this exhibition will not count toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 26, 2:31 PMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a SJS 2.8 - 3.4 VGK game with the Golden Knights at 60% win probability.

Keys to the game

  • Yaroslav Askarov has leaked goals all season. Yaroslav Askarov: -15.8 GSAx over 47 games.
  • Tomas Hertl drives the Golden Knights offense. Tomas Hertl: 5G 34A, 1.46 xG/60, 12 high-danger goals.
  • Macklin Celebrini drives the Sharks offense. Macklin Celebrini: 26G 70A, 1.25 xG/60, 12 high-danger goals.

Season 5v5 Numbers

MetricSJSVGK
xG%46.5%54.5%
Corsi%47.0%52.3%
PDO0.9980.983

Rates from 2025-26 — the 2026-27 sample isn't live yet.

Where the Edges Live

  • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.5% 5v5 xG vs 46.5%.
  • The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.3% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression Watch

  • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Goaltending Matchup

  • Goalie matchup: A. Nedeljkovic (-4.5 GSAx in 40 GP, 89.6% SV) vs A. Hill (-16.0 GSAx in 27 GP, 87.1% SV).
  • A. Nedeljkovic has the GSAx edge — 11.5 goals above his counterpart this season.
  • A. Hill has struggled — 87.1% SV over 27 starts.

Players to Watch

SJS

  • Macklin Celebrini — 1.25 xG/60, 26G 70A, 12 HD goals, 9.1% shooting
  • Will Smith — 0.98 xG/60, 15G 35A, 7 HD goals, 9.0% shooting

VGK

  • Tomas Hertl — 1.46 xG/60, 5G 34A, 12 HD goals, 2.5% shooting
  • Mark Stone — 1.25 xG/60, 14G 45A, 15 HD goals, 10.8% shooting

Key Matchups

SJS

  • Key matchup: Neutralize Macklin Celebrini (26G, 1.25 xG/60, 12 HD goals)
  • SJS scores 51% of goals from HD — collapse and protect the slot

VGK

  • Key matchup: Neutralize Tomas Hertl (5G, 1.46 xG/60, 12 HD goals)
  • VGK scores 54% of goals from HD — collapse and protect the slot

Tactical Notes

  • SJS: 1% HD goal rate, 0% rebound goal rate
  • SJS defensive weak link: Igor Chernyshov
  • VGK: 1% HD goal rate, 0% rebound goal rate
  • VGK defensive weak link: Ivan Barbashev

Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

VGK 60%
60%
VGK
Model favorite
40%
60%
SJS50VGK

VGK by 20 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score SJS 2.8–3.4 VGK; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
SJS← edge
edge →VGK
46.5%54.5%
47.0%52.3%
2.873.26
3.302.71
3.043.22
3.542.95
0.9980.983

VGK holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.998 vs 0.983) says SJS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · No games yet
SJS
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
VGK
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
0.998
SJS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.983
VGK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

WARNINGSJS

Yaroslav Askarov has leaked goals all season

Yaroslav Askarov: -15.8 GSAx over 47 games.

Shoot from everywhere — volume beats a cold crease.

STRENGTHVGK

Tomas Hertl drives the Golden Knights offense

Tomas Hertl: 5G 34A, 1.46 xG/60, 12 high-danger goals.

TACTICALVGK

Shutdown Assignment: Golden Knights

Highest individual xG/60 on SJS. Gets 33 HD shots. Limit slot access.

Key matchup: Neutralize Macklin Celebrini (26G, 1.25 xG/60, 12 HD goals)

TACTICALSJS

Shutdown Assignment: Sharks

Highest individual xG/60 on VGK. Gets 57 HD shots. Limit slot access.

Key matchup: Neutralize Tomas Hertl (5G, 1.46 xG/60, 12 HD goals)

Where the edges live
  • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.5% 5v5 xG vs 46.5%.
  • The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.3% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
  • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
  • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.5% 5v5 xG vs 46.5%.
  • The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.3% — expect territorial tilt.
  • Goalie matchup: A. Nedeljkovic (-4.5 GSAx in 40 GP, 89.6% SV) vs A. Hill (-16.0 GSAx in 27 GP, 87.1% SV).
  • A. Nedeljkovic has the GSAx edge — 11.5 goals above his counterpart this season.
  • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
SJS
preseason · vs ANA · Thu, Sep 24
Expected in goal
A. Nedeljkovic
1 day rest1.000 last start60:00 played
Backup Yaroslav Askarov · -15.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
  • W. Smith14:10
  • T. Dellandrea14:31
  • J. Huntington15:17
  • B. Leason14:19
  • F. Bystedt17:19
  • B. Goodrow13:08
  • M. Marchment11:48
  • I. Stenberg15:23
  • K. Sherwood18:05
  • M. Celebrini10:45
  • M. Misa15:56
  • I. Chernyshov14:34
Defence · 6
  • N. Allan17:52
  • S. Dickinson19:44
  • M. Kesselring19:47
  • D. Nurse19:44
  • L. Cagnoni19:17
  • E. Pohlkamp18:21
VGK
preseason · vs UTA · Thu, Sep 24
Expected in goal
A. Hill
1 day rest.810 last start58:57 played
Backup Akira Schmid · -2.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
  • J. Eichel21:10
  • B. Howden15:09
  • T. Connelly12:32
  • N. Dowd11:56
  • B. Bowman14:37
  • J. Rondbjerg10:48
  • T. Hertl18:32
  • I. Barbashev13:57
  • M. Stone20:06
  • W. Karlsson16:15
  • M. Marner19:27
  • V. Olofsson14:02
Defence · 6
  • B. McNabb19:12
  • R. Andersson17:14
  • J. Lauzon16:13
  • N. Hanifin17:25
  • S. Theodore26:51
  • P. Wotherspoon16:11

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
SJS
Macklin Celebrini26G 70A
1.25 xG/60 · 12 HD · 9.1% sh
Will Smith15G 35A
0.98 xG/60 · 7 HD · 9.0% sh
VGK
Tomas Hertl5G 34A
1.46 xG/60 · 12 HD · 2.5% sh
Mark Stone14G 45A
1.25 xG/60 · 15 HD · 10.8% sh
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