S. Wedgewood stole it
S. Wedgewood stopped 33 of 35 (0.943) — +4.56 goals saved above expected in a 2-goal game.

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.
Utah beat Colorado 2-0 with two first-period goals. K. Vejmelka made all 25 shots count.
Utah's offensive control masked an underperformance. They held 67% of expected goals but finished with just two goals, underperforming their workload by 4.56—a gap that ordinarily costs teams the game. Colorado's situation was bleaker: three expected goals on the whole night, zero conversions on seven high-danger attempts.
L. Cooley scored at 10:35 of the first, a rebound from seven feet on the power play (19% scoring chance), assisted by C. Keller and D. Guenther. J. McBain had opened it at 6:38 with a snap from eight feet (23% chance), set up by B. Hayton and N. Schmidt. Both arrived in the same window, leaving Colorado no time to recover.
Utah turned that scoring drought into an advantage by controlling Colorado's counter: 38 rush attempts by the Avalanche yielded 4.80 expected goals and zero results. Utah's speed game produced ten high-danger chances and finished on two of them. Vejmelka saved 3.21 goals above expected, covering Utah's finish gap. S. Wedgewood, Colorado's starter, saved 4.56 above expected across 33 of 35 stops—an individual excellence that mattered less when the team behind him couldn't generate enough offensive chances to make it count.
Three Stars
What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.
Mammoth shut out the Avalanche, 2-0
The Mammoth earned this one.
The board read COL 0, UTA 2. The chances read COL 3.2, UTA 6.6.
The Avalanche left 3.2 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.
J. McBain makes it 0–1.
The Avalanche went 0 for 7 from the slot.
Mammoth shut out the Avalanche, 2-0
A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.
Read the full breakdownSnap shot from 8 feet, a 23% chance, past S. Wedgewood. 1s after a COL hit by F. Lysell. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: N. Schmidt, M. Weegar, L. Crouse, B. Hayton, J. McBain · against B. Burns, S. Behrens, F. Lysell, T. Nielsen, T. Hughes
Snap shot from 7 feet, a 19% chance (a rebound), past S. Wedgewood. 3s after a UTA shot by L. Cooley. Win probability moved 12 points.On the ice: A. Lee, V. Trocheck, J. Marino, M. Carcone, D. But · against N. Roy, A. Gagne, M. Jedlicka, G. Stjernberg
score reads COL–UTA
UTA went 0-for-35 from medium danger on 3.89 expected goals — 3.9 left on the table.
COL finished -3.2 against expected, UTA -4.6.
Snap shots carried the volume: COL went 0-for-26, UTA 2-for-28.
Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.
The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5
Best skater on the ice by our rating: L. Cooley (UTA), 19:40 of ice, 1-0, 77% of the expected goals while he was out.
| Skater | TOI | G-A | SOG | ixG | xG% | PD/PT | Impact | /60 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. DiMarsicoC | 12:30 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.23 | 72 | 0/0 | 0.71 | 3.41 | B |
| A. BeckmanL | 15:58 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.69 | 48 | 0/1 | 0.26 | 0.97 | C |
| T. HughesR | 17:14 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.38 | 50 | 0/1 | 0.20 | 0.71 | C |
| F. LysellR | 16:32 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.38 | 44 | 0/0 | 0.04 | 0.16 | C |
| G. StjernbergD | 15:38 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.19 | 28 | 0/0 | -0.01 | -0.03 | C |
| T. NielsenC | 15:50 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.15 | 39 | 1/1 | -0.01 | -0.03 | D |
| A. GagneD | 16:25 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 52 | 0/1 | -0.12 | -0.44 | D |
| J. MansonD | 15:53 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.07 | 36 | 0/0 | -0.12 | -0.47 | D |
| B. BurnsD | 19:00 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.20 | 39 | 0/0 | -0.13 | -0.42 | D |
| S. BehrensD | 13:19 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.18 | 33 | 0/0 | -0.22 | -0.97 | D |
| G. BrindleyC | 18:12 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.21 | 33 | 0/0 | -0.37 | -1.22 | D |
| V. HinostrozaC | 17:49 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.23 | 28 | 1/0 | -0.38 | -1.29 | D |
| T. MakarL | 5:09 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0 | 0/1 | -0.29 | -3.38 | D |
| M. JedlickaC | 15:24 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.03 | 12 | 1/0 | -0.51 | -1.98 | F |
| N. RoyC | 19:46 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.23 | 29 | 0/0 | -0.67 | -2.04 | F |
| N. PrishchepovC | 13:54 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 22 | 0/1 | -0.65 | -2.81 | F |
| W. AamodtD | 16:07 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.01 | 17 | 0/1 | -0.86 | -3.21 | F |
| K. MiddletonD | 17:42 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.01 | 13 | 0/0 | -1.17 | -3.97 | F |
| Skater | TOI | G-A | SOG | ixG | xG% | PD/PT | Impact | /60 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. CooleyC | 19:40 | 1-0 | 5 | 1.53 | 77 | 1/1 | 2.57 | 7.84 | A+ |
| D. GuentherR | 18:54 | 0-1 | 2 | 0.71 | 86 | 0/0 | 2.02 | 6.42 | A+ |
| C. KellerR | 21:04 | 0-1 | 3 | 0.56 | 75 | 0/1 | 2.00 | 5.69 | A+ |
| B. HaytonC | 14:15 | 0-1 | 1 | 0.19 | 70 | 1/0 | 1.46 | 6.13 | A |
| A. LeeL | 15:11 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.65 | 83 | 1/0 | 1.38 | 5.46 | A |
| N. SchmaltzC | 20:33 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.49 | 77 | 0/0 | 1.51 | 4.40 | A |
| J. McBainC | 10:43 | 1-0 | 1 | 0.37 | 52 | 0/0 | 1.08 | 6.02 | A |
| M. SergachevD | 24:30 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.33 | 69 | 0/0 | 1.34 | 3.29 | A |
| N. SchmidtD | 15:30 | 0-1 | 2 | 0.05 | 54 | 1/0 | 1.02 | 3.95 | B |
| M. CarconeL | 14:01 | 0-0 | 3 | 0.09 | 84 | 0/0 | 0.81 | 3.46 | B |
| V. TrocheckC | 19:27 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.35 | 62 | 0/0 | 0.78 | 2.41 | B |
| J. MarinoD | 20:39 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.12 | 67 | 0/0 | 0.76 | 2.20 | B |
| D. ButL | 11:09 | 0-0 | 0 | 0.00 | 74 | 2/0 | 0.51 | 2.74 | B |
| D. SimashevD | 12:36 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.18 | 63 | 1/0 | 0.47 | 2.21 | B |
| L. CrouseL | 11:43 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.28 | 62 | 0/1 | 0.32 | 1.64 | C |
| K. StenlundC | 11:08 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.43 | 49 | 0/0 | 0.25 | 1.34 | C |
| M. WeegarD | 17:04 | 0-0 | 2 | 0.22 | 53 | 0/0 | 0.29 | 1.02 | C |
| A. PeekeD | 13:53 | 0-0 | 1 | 0.00 | 57 | 0/0 | 0.26 | 1.10 | C |
xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.
Scratched, COL: N. Kadri, B. Nelson, J. Schwartz, G. Landeskog, B. Kulak, J. Megna and 43 more. Scratched, UTA: L. O'Brien, A. Poganski, K. Rooney, B. Tanev, K. Yamamoto, N. DeSimone and 27 more. Referees Brandon Schrader and Morgan MacPhee; linesmen Joe Mahon and Ben O'Quinn.
COL Created 3.21 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 7 high-danger shots (1.41 xG) and 24 rush shots (2.72 xG).
UTA Created 6.56 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 10 high-danger shots (2.45 xG) and 38 rush shots (4.80 xG).
COL Allowed 6.56 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 10 high-danger shots (2.45 xG) and 38 rush shots (4.80 xG).
UTA Allowed 3.21 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 7 high-danger shots (1.41 xG) and 24 rush shots (2.72 xG).
COL Rush shots 24–38, rush xG 2.72–4.80 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
UTA Rush shots 38–24, rush xG 4.80–2.72 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
COL 0-for-4 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 1.13 PP xG.
UTA 1-for-8 on the power play (12%; league ≈21%) with 2.99 PP xG.
COL +4.56 goals saved above expected on 35 shots against.
UTA +3.21 goals saved above expected on 25 shots against.
COL Took 8 penalties for 18 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.
UTA Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 8 for 18 on the other side.
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
COL Finishing -3.21 goals vs xG plus +4.56 GSAx of save luck = +1.35 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
UTA Finishing -4.56 goals vs xG plus +3.21 GSAx of save luck = -1.35 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
S. Wedgewood stopped 33 of 35 (0.943) — +4.56 goals saved above expected in a 2-goal game.
Scored 2 on 6.56 xG — -4.56 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.
Gave up 38 rush shots worth 4.80 xG (0 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
K. Vejmelka stopped 25 of 25 (1.000) — +3.21 goals saved above expected in a 2-goal game.
0 goals on 38 rush shots worth 4.80 xG.
Scored 0 on 3.21 xG — -3.21 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.
Each club shoots toward its own end — COL left, UTA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.
Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The rates below are last season's; this exhibition will not count toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.
The model projects a COL 3.3 - 3.1 UTA game with the Avalanche at 53% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
| Metric | COL | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 56.6% | 51.5% |
| Corsi% | 56.4% | 52.9% |
| PDO | 1.021 | 1.003 |
Rates from 2025-26 — the 2026-27 sample isn't live yet.
COL
UTA
COL
UTA
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
COL by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score COL 3.3–3.1 UTA; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
COL holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.021 vs 1.003) says COL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
M. Blackwood projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Nathan MacKinnon: 31G 74A, 1.46 xG/60, 13 high-danger goals.
Scott Wedgewood: +14.1 GSAx over 45 games (0.921 SV%).
Highest individual xG/60 on COL. Gets 44 HD shots. Limit slot access.
Key matchup: Neutralize Nathan MacKinnon (31G, 1.46 xG/60, 13 HD goals)
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.