Backcheck
Pick club
Motion-blurred skater in a Los Angeles Kings sweater
← Sat, Sep 26 · the slate
Breakdown · ANA at LAK · Preseason

Kings run the Ducks off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalSat, Sep 26
ANAAnaheim Ducks2LAKLos Angeles Kings6
The verdict · earned

The Kings earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

ANA 2 · LAK 6
Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 27, 12:08 AMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Los Angeles beat Anaheim 6-2 and looked far better doing it. The Kings controlled the play from start to finish, turning a dominant workload into a blowout and leaving no doubt who was the better team.

The easiest disagreement to read is the one hidden between the pipes. L. Dostal surrendered 6 goals on 20 shots, a performance 2.32 goals worse than his underlying workload should have allowed. D. Kuemper, by contrast, stopped 17 of 19 for a 0.895 save percentage. That gap alone swallows the margin between a tight game and a rout.

Expected goals tell the same story the scoreboard already knew. The Kings generated 3.68 to the Ducks' 2.45, a 60-40 split that reflects where they shot from — more dangerous positions, more consistently. The Kings held 51% of shot attempts, a distribution tight enough that the scoreboard's 6-2 margin looks lopsided in comparison.

The Kings' power play was dominant: two goals on 13 shots, generating 1.83 expected goals. A. Turcotte scored twice in the third period, M. Zuccarello and D. Doughty each accumulated three assists, and the Kings converted off the rush with lethal precision.

For Anaheim, the Ducks generated higher-quality chances than their shot total suggests. B. Sennecke's power-play goal in the first was dangerous, and the team created three rebound opportunities. But they couldn't finish, and they couldn't contain a Los Angeles forecheck that was clean and organized.

The Kings' control was overwhelming. Their defense was sharper, their transitions cleaner, and their efficiency unmistakable. The numbers say it, and the scoreboard confirms it.

The goals

  • ANA 1–0, 07:06 of the first. N. Nesterenko, snap shot from 15 feet, a 20% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Kuemper. Assists: T. Washe, J. Caulfield. 3 seconds after an ANA hit by J. Caulfield. Win probability moved 15 points.
  • LAK 1–1, 08:44 of the first. S. Laughton, snap shot from 7 feet, a 14% chance by the model (a rebound), past L. Dostal. Assists: E. Haula, C. Ceci. 3 seconds after a LAK missed shot by E. Haula. Win probability moved 16 points.
  • ANA 2–1, 16:32 of the first on the power play. B. Sennecke, snap shot from 20 feet, an 11% chance by the model (off the rush), past D. Kuemper. Assists: L. Carlsson, C. Gauthier. Win probability moved 18 points.
  • LAK 2–2, 19:18 of the first. A. Kempe, wrist shot from 9 feet, a 14% chance by the model (a rebound), past L. Dostal. Assists: B. Dumoulin, D. Doughty. 2 seconds after a LAK missed shot by A. Kempe. Win probability moved 19 points.
  • LAK 2–3, 08:56 of the second on the power play. M. Zuccarello, wrist shot from 24 feet, a 12% chance by the model (off the rush), past L. Dostal. Assists: A. Panarin, A. Kempe. 7 seconds after a LAK takeaway by Q. Byfield. Win probability moved 20 points.
  • LAK 2–4, 01:39 of the third. A. Turcotte, tip-in from 23 feet, a 5% chance by the model (off the rush), past L. Dostal. Assists: D. Doughty, M. Zuccarello. 7 seconds after an ANA hit by T. Hinds. Win probability moved 14 points.
  • LAK 2–5, 08:56 of the third. A. Turcotte, wrist shot from 26 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past L. Dostal. Assists: M. Zuccarello.
  • LAK 2–6, 11:52 of the third on the power play. E. Haula, wrist shot from 11 feet, a 14% chance by the model (a rebound), past L. Dostal. Assists: A. Turcotte, D. Doughty. 3 seconds after a LAK missed shot by A. Turcotte.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Preseason · Sep 26
ANA
2
LAK
6

Kings run the Ducks off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 2.5 – 3.7Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Kings earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
ANA
2.45
LAK
3.68
40% of the chances60%

The board read ANA 2, LAK 6. The chances read ANA 2.5, LAK 3.7.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
LAK
+2.3
goals above expected
LAK3.68 expected · 6 scored
Expected
Scored
ANA2.45 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

The Kings scored 2.3 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
The swing
+20
win-probability points
53% → 74% for LAK
LAK 100%the game, start to finish
ANA 100%P1 · P2 · P3
LAKP2 08:56 · PP

M. Zuccarello makes it 2–3.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 07:06ANAN. Nesterenko20%1–0
  2. P1 08:44LAKS. Laughton14%1–1
  3. P1 16:32ANAB. SenneckePP11%2–1
  4. P1 19:18LAKA. Kempe14%2–2
  5. P2 08:56LAKM. ZuccarelloPP12%2–3
  6. P3 01:39LAKA. Turcotte5%2–4
  7. P3 08:56LAKA. Turcotte14%2–5
+1 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
ANA
32 shots
2
Final
71 shots
LAK
39 shots
6
ANA attackLAK attack
ANA LAK Goal
32
shots · 2 in
39
shots · 6 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
ANALAK
1 / 2
0.38 xG
High danger
0 / 4
1.03 xG
1 / 16
1.68 xG
Medium
5 / 22
2.34 xG
0 / 31
0.38 xG
Low
1 / 21
0.31 xG

High-danger looks: ANA 1 of 2, LAK 0 of 4.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B
D. Kuemper
+0.5
LAK · 17/19 · 59:10
Best save · a 19% chance, wrist from 22 ft · P3 04:20
F
L. Dostal
−2.3
ANA · 14/20 · 60:00
Best save · a 41% chance, wrist from 9 ft · P2 17:11
Best skater on the ice
A+
LAK
A. Kempe
R · impact 3.03
18:15
Ice time
1–1
G – A
0.97
Own xG
79%
xG share
Impact · top 4
A. Kempe3.0A+
A. Turcotte2.5A+
M. Zuccarello2.7A+
E. Haula2.1A
Report card
ANALAK
OffenseCA-
DefenseFC
TransitionD+B-
Special teamsA+A+
GoaltendingFC+
DisciplineDB
LuckFA+
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why LAK won
  1. 01Dangerous off the rush
  2. 02Power play cashed in
  3. 03Won on the merits
Why ANA lost
  1. 01L. Dostal couldn't make the stop
  2. 02Rush defense leaked all night
  3. 03PDO ran cold
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Kings run the Ducks off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 12 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 10–6
  1. 07:06ANAN. Nesterenko(T. Washe, J. Caulfield)1–0

    Snap shot from 15 feet, a 20% chance (off the rush), past D. Kuemper. 3s after an ANA hit by J. Caulfield. Win probability moved 15 points.On the ice: N. Jensen, M. Granlund, B. Sennecke, S. Solberg, N. Klepov · against D. Doughty, B. Dumoulin, J. Armia, A. Lee, S. Helenius

  2. 08:44LAKS. Laughton(E. Haula, C. Ceci)1–1

    Snap shot from 7 feet, a 14% chance (a rebound), past L. Dostal. 3s after a LAK miss by E. Haula. Win probability moved 16 points.On the ice: C. Ceci, A. Kempe, A. Panarin, M. Anderson, Q. Byfield · against F. Vatrano, R. Poehling, T. Luneau, N. Myatovic, T. Mitchell

  3. 16:32ANAB. Senneckepower play(L. Carlsson, C. Gauthier)2–1

    Snap shot from 20 feet, an 11% chance (off the rush), past D. Kuemper. Win probability moved 18 points.On the ice: J. Caulfield, N. Nesterenko, T. Luneau, T. Mitchell, T. Washe · against D. Doughty, B. Dumoulin, A. Kempe, A. Panarin, Q. Byfield

  4. 19:18LAKA. Kempe(B. Dumoulin, D. Doughty)2–2

    Wrist shot from 9 feet, a 14% chance (a rebound), past L. Dostal. 2s after a LAK miss by A. Kempe. Win probability moved 19 points.On the ice: D. Doughty, B. Dumoulin, E. Haula, S. Laughton, T. Moore · against J. Caulfield, N. Nesterenko, T. Luneau, T. Mitchell, T. Washe

2ndshots 2–10
  1. 08:56LAKM. Zuccarellopower play(A. Panarin, A. Kempe)2–3

    Wrist shot from 24 feet, a 12% chance (off the rush), past L. Dostal. 7s after a LAK takeaway by Q. Byfield. Win probability moved 20 points.On the ice: E. Haula, S. Laughton, C. Ceci, T. Moore, M. Anderson · against N. Jensen, M. Granlund, N. Myatovic, B. Sennecke, S. Solberg

3rdshots 7–4
  1. 01:39LAKA. Turcotte(D. Doughty, M. Zuccarello)2–4

    Tip-in from 23 feet, a 5% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past L. Dostal. 7s after an ANA hit by T. Hinds. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: A. Kempe, A. Panarin, Q. Byfield, B. Clarke, K. Kirsanov · against N. Jensen, F. Vatrano, R. Poehling, S. Solberg, N. Klepov

  2. 08:56LAKA. Turcotte(M. Zuccarello)2–5

    Wrist shot from 26 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past L. Dostal.On the ice: C. Ceci, A. Kempe, A. Panarin, M. Anderson, Q. Byfield · against F. Vatrano, R. Poehling, J. LaCombe, T. Mitchell, N. Klepov

  3. 11:52LAKE. Haulapower play(A. Turcotte, D. Doughty)2–6

    Wrist shot from 11 feet, a 14% chance (a rebound), past L. Dostal. 3s after a LAK miss by A. Turcotte.On the ice: J. Armia, S. Laughton, C. Ceci, T. Moore, M. Anderson · against F. Vatrano, R. Poehling, J. LaCombe, T. Luneau, N. Klepov

score reads ANA–LAK

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
3.68
LAK chances
Goals their shots were worth
+2.3
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.087
LAK puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
49.0%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.45Expected goals3.68
LAK 60% of the chance quality
19Shots on goal20
2High-danger chances4
49All attempts (Corsi)47
Adjusted for score: ANA 54% · LAK 46%
Faceoffs · LAK won38%off26%neu56%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
ANA1 / 2 · 0.38 xG
LAK0 / 4 · 1.03 xG
Medium dangermid-range
ANA1 / 16 · 1.68 xG
LAK5 / 22 · 2.34 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
ANA0 / 31 · 0.38 xG
LAK1 / 21 · 0.31 xG

LAK went 5-for-22 from medium danger on 2.34 expected goals — 2.7 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
ANA
2 G · 2.45 xG · -0.5
LAK
6 G · 3.68 xG · +2.3
01234567

ANA finished -0.5 against expected, LAK +2.3.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
ANA
WRIST0/15
SNAP2/7
TIP IN0/3
BACKHAND0/4
SLAP0/1
POKE0/1
DEFLECTED0/1
BAT0/0
OTHER0/17
LAK
WRIST4/20
SNAP1/4
TIP IN1/6
BACKHAND0/3
SLAP0/5
POKE0/0
DEFLECTED0/0
BAT0/1
OTHER0/8
ANA
LAK
Off the rush
2 G on 19
1.79 xG
3 G on 25
2.20 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 3
0.22 xG
3 G on 6
1.17 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: ANA went 0-for-15, LAK 4-for-20. LAK scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
L. Dostal
ANA · 14/20 · .700
started · 60:00 · loss
-2.3
saved above expected
F
the night
Attempts faced
39
Avg chance faced
9.4%
Stopped vs expected
0.846 vs 0.906
Rebounds allowed
6 · 3 scored on
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/41.0+1.0
Medium5/222.3-2.7
Low1/130.3-0.7
Shorthanded2/121.8-0.2
Tips & deflections1/60.3-0.7
The save
41% chance stopped, a wrist from 9 ft · P2 17:11
The one to have back
5% chance went in, a tip-in from 23 ft · P3 01:39

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

D. Kuemper
LAK · 17/19 · .895
started · 59:10 · win
+0.5
saved above expected
B
the night
Attempts faced
32
Avg chance faced
7.6%
Stopped vs expected
0.938 vs 0.924
Rebounds allowed
3
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/20.4-0.6
Medium1/161.7+0.7
Low0/140.4+0.4
Shorthanded1/30.2-0.8
Tips & deflections0/40.2+0.2
The save
19% chance stopped, a wrist from 22 ft · P3 04:20
The one to have back
11% chance went in, a snap from 20 ft · P1 16:32

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: A. Kempe (LAK), 18:15 of ice, 1-1, 79% of the expected goals while he was out.

ANA18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
L. CarlssonC17:410-165A
C. GauthierL17:180-173A
N. NesterenkoC10:211-054B
B. SenneckeR17:411-072B
T. WasheC12:040-134B
J. CaulfieldR13:390-153B
M. GranlundC17:040-072C
A. KillornL16:060-053C
T. HindsD19:340-059C
J. LaCombeD23:100-059C
N. KlepovR14:220-045D
N. MyatovicL14:250-035D
T. LuneauD19:240-045D
T. MitchellD19:090-039D
F. VatranoR12:180-027F
S. SolbergD18:030-030F
N. JensenD17:480-026F
R. PoehlingC13:590-023F
LAK18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
A. KempeR18:151-179A+
A. TurcotteC13:182-143A+
M. ZuccarelloR17:221-271A+
E. HaulaL13:461-165A
A. PanarinL20:280-177A
D. DoughtyD19:140-335A
Q. ByfieldR19:530-077B
C. CeciD20:330-172B
S. LaughtonC16:451-053B
B. DumoulinD18:400-133C
B. ClarkeD20:080-068C
M. AndersonD23:050-072C
T. MooreL15:400-060C
A. LaferriereR13:310-038D
J. ArmiaR11:470-028D
K. KirsanovD14:190-020D
S. HeleniusC10:280-016D
A. LeeL10:310-018F

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, ANA: L. Brossoit, A. Greer, T. Terry, J. Hamblin, J. Woo, C. Schueneman and 37 more. Scratched, LAK: C. Perry, A. Forsberg, J. Edmundson, J. Doty, E. Gustafsson, K. Fiala and 34 more. Referees Trevor Hanson and Graedy Hamilton; linesmen Travis Gawryletz and Jonathan Deschamps.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F
DimensionANALAK
Offense
▸Basis

ANA Created 2.45 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.38 xG) and 19 rush shots (1.79 xG).

LAK Created 3.68 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 4 high-danger shots (1.03 xG) and 25 rush shots (2.20 xG).

C
74
A-
91
Defense
▸Basis

ANA Allowed 3.68 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 4 high-danger shots (1.03 xG) and 25 rush shots (2.20 xG).

LAK Allowed 2.45 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.38 xG) and 19 rush shots (1.79 xG).

F
59
C
76
Transition
▸Basis

ANA Rush shots 19–25, rush xG 1.79–2.20 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

LAK Rush shots 25–19, rush xG 2.20–1.79 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

D+
68
B-
82
Special teams
▸Basis

ANA 1-for-2 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 0.19 PP xG.

LAK 2-for-4 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 1.83 PP xG.

A+
100
A+
100
Goaltending
▸Basis

ANA -2.32 goals saved above expected on 20 shots against.

LAK +0.45 goals saved above expected on 19 shots against.

F
52
C+
79
Discipline
▸Basis

ANA Took 6 penalties for 20 PIM vs 4 for 16 on the other side.

LAK Took 4 penalties for 16 PIM vs 6 for 20 on the other side.

D
65
B
85
Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

ANA Finishing -0.45 goals vs xG plus -2.32 GSAx of save luck = -2.77 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

LAK Finishing +2.32 goals vs xG plus +0.45 GSAx of save luck = +2.77 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

F
53
A+
97
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
What the model flagged
WARNINGANA

L. Dostal couldn't make the stop

L. Dostal allowed 6 on 20 shots (0.700) — 2.32 goals worse than expected.

Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.

WARNINGANA

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 25 rush shots worth 2.20 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHLAK

Dangerous off the rush

3 goals on 25 rush shots worth 2.20 xG.

LUCKLAK

Ran hot in front of the net

Scored 6 on 3.68 xG — +2.32 above expected. Shooting luck like that regresses.

WARNINGLAK

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 19 rush shots worth 1.79 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHANA

Dangerous off the rush

2 goals on 19 rush shots worth 1.79 xG.

71 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
ANA
32 shots
2
Final
71 shots
LAK
39 shots
6
ANA attackLAK attack
ANA LAK Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — ANA left, LAK right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
D. Doughty
#8 · D · LAK
0 G · 3 A · 1 SOG · 19:14 on ice · +2
M. Zuccarello
#36 · R · LAK
1 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 17:22 on ice · +1
A. Turcotte
#15 · C · LAK
2 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 13:18 on ice · +1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Sep 26
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The rates below are last season's; this exhibition will not count toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 26, 1:39 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

This is as close to a pick'em as you get. The model projects a 3.2–3.4 game that favors the Kings at 53% win probability—virtually a coin flip.

The Kings' edge lives in goaltending. V. Husso has let in 3.8 more goals than his shot volume suggested over 20 starts; A. Forsberg has saved 7.7 more than expected in 36 starts. That's an 11.5-goal gap, visible in the save percentages: Forsberg at 91.0%, Husso at 88.4%.

The Ducks score 52% of their goals from high-danger areas—the slot is where this game gets decided.

Alex Laferriere drives the Kings' offense. He carries 0.93 expected goals per 60 minutes with 16 goals and 23 assists, four of them high-danger finishes. His 7.7% shooting keeps him dangerous.

The Kings' defensive weak link is Brian Dumoulin. He's been on the ice for 1.88 expected goals against per 60 minutes and has faced 65 high-danger shots this season—the Ducks can hunt him.

At five-on-five, these teams are statistical mirrors. Anaheim holds 50.4% expected goals share and 52.2% of shot attempts; the Kings run 51.4% expected goals and 52.1% shot attempts. Anaheim sits at 0.981 PDO and is due for positive regression. The Kings are at 1.001, right on average.

Husso's 76.3% high-danger save percentage is work-rate dependent—the more traffic, the harder the task. The Kings score 47% of their goals from high-danger areas, with 27 rebound goals (18% of their total). Controlling the crease controls the game.

Season rates in this preview are from 2025-26 — this season's sample isn't live yet.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

LAK 53%
53%
LAK
Model favorite
47%
53%
ANA50LAK

LAK by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score ANA 3.2–3.4 LAK; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
ANA← edge
edge →LAK
50.4%51.4%
52.2%52.1%
3.403.10
3.352.93
3.232.68
3.512.90
0.9811.001

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (0.981 vs 1.001) says LAK has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · No games yet
ANA
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
LAK
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
0.981
ANA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.001
LAK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

WARNINGLAK

Exploitable minutes: Brian Dumoulin

Brian Dumoulin is on ice for 1.88 xGA/60 and 65 high-danger shots against this season.

Hunt matchups against Brian Dumoulin's shifts with the top line.

WARNINGLAK

Darcy Kuemper has leaked goals all season

Darcy Kuemper: -9.2 GSAx over 50 games.

Shoot from everywhere — volume beats a cold crease.

STRENGTHLAK

Alex Laferriere drives the Kings offense

Alex Laferriere: 16G 23A, 0.93 xG/60, 4 high-danger goals.

TACTICALLAK

Defensive Structure: Kings

High-danger team. Prioritize net-front battles and box-outs over shot-blocking.

ANA scores 52% of goals from HD — collapse and protect the slot

Regression watch
  • The Ducks' PDO is 0.981 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
  • Goalie matchup: V. Husso (-3.8 GSAx in 20 GP, 88.4% SV) vs A. Forsberg (+7.7 GSAx in 36 GP, 91.0% SV).
  • A. Forsberg has the GSAx edge — 11.5 goals above his counterpart this season.
  • The Ducks' PDO is 0.981 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
ANA
preseason · vs SJS · Thu, Sep 24
Expected in goal
V. Husso
1 day rest.714 last start30:06 played
V. Husso started last game and was relieved by L. Brossoit (29:47 of it).
Backup Lukas Dostal · -4.4 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
  • S. Colangelo12:08
  • A. Wahlberg16:50
  • J. Caulfield19:09
  • J. Hamblin16:40
  • J. Malott11:31
  • N. Klepov15:46
  • N. Gaucher08:51
  • N. Myatovic21:24
  • L. Pettersson12:55
  • S. Farrell10:30
  • C. Lucius14:05
  • R. McQueen18:47
Defence · 6
  • N. Jensen22:03
  • C. Schueneman21:39
  • T. Mitchell19:22
  • J. Woo11:20
  • S. Solberg18:51
  • T. Hinds18:44
LAK
preseason · vs ANA · Wed, Sep 23
Expected in goal
A. Forsberg
2 days rest.960 last start60:00 played
Backup Darcy Kuemper · -9.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
  • A. Laferriere18:36
  • A. Turcotte18:01
  • T. Ward15:58
  • J. Wright11:57
  • L. Pederson12:40
  • K. Connors17:23
  • J. Armia20:07
  • M. Chromiak11:12
  • A. Lee14:29
  • E. Haula19:18
  • A. Jamsen08:39
  • C. Guttman09:03
Defence · 6
  • B. Dumoulin20:49
  • S. Perunovich13:17
  • D. Doughty20:19
  • E. Gustafsson22:37
  • K. Kirsanov21:20
  • A. Booth14:09

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
LAK
Alex Laferriere16G 23A
0.93 xG/60 · 4 HD · 7.7% sh
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