Kings at Capitals: a genuine coin flip

The model's projected final score is Los Angeles 3.2, Washington 3.1. That margin is a verdict on how thin this game is, not a prediction of a comfortable win.

The Kings' case starts with how the puck moves. Los Angeles controls the underlying play, holding 51.3% of expected goals at five-on-five. Expected goals is the model's estimate of how many goals a team's chances should produce, so a team that owns it is creating better chances than it converts. Washington's share is 44.4%.

Shot attempts tell the same story. Los Angeles takes 52.0% of them, and Washington takes 45.2%, so expect the game to tilt toward the Kings' end of the ice.

Washington has the better record, at 5-3-0 through eight games. Los Angeles is a minus-13 goal differential over six games, so the Kings have been losing the scoreboard even while winning the play.

The bigger caveat is luck. Washington's on-ice shooting-plus-save figure is 1.041, which is running hot and should cool. Los Angeles sits at 0.940, running cold and due for a positive correction.

Goaltending is where the Kings have their clearest edge. L. Thompson has saved more goals than his shots should have allowed, and that gap works out to 8.1 goals this season over his counterpart. A. Forsberg has allowed more goals than his workload should have produced, and his save percentage over three games is 88.3%.

So call it a coin flip, and a fair one. Los Angeles has the better process and the better goaltender. Washington has the better record, and its luck figure is the one most likely to fade.

Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model