WARNINGANA
V. Husso on a back-to-back
V. Husso projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · ANA at NYI
Ducks at Islanders: a true toss-up
The model's leanTue, Oct 20
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 20, 9:00 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Nothing in the model separates these two teams. The projection calls it a coin flip, so the result will turn on which edge actually shows up on the ice.
The most immediate question is in Anaheim's net. V. Husso is projected to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back, which raises the chance of a backup start or a tired goaltender. The Islanders arrive with two days of rest, while the Ducks have none.
The possession numbers split the two teams. The Ducks have the better expected goals share at five-on-five, 49.5% to 46.1%. Expected goals weighs the quality of chances, not just the shots taken, so this is the measure that favors Anaheim. Shot attempts tell the opposite story, with the Islanders at 51.1%.
The luck gauge cuts against New York. PDO, a combined shooting and save percentage figure, sits at 1.046 for the Islanders. That is running hot, and it should drift back toward average. Anaheim's PDO is 0.983, running cold, which points to positive regression for the Ducks.
In goal, the Islanders hold the clearer edge. V. Husso has three games this season with an 88.5% save percentage. I. Sorokin has six games with a 94.0% save percentage, and his goals saved above expected figure puts him 6.1 goals ahead of his counterpart.
Expect a close game that could tilt on one goaltending decision. If Husso starts on tired legs, I. Sorokin's edge becomes the number to watch.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
ANA 50%
50%
ANA
Model favorite
50%
50%
ANA50NYI
ANA by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score ANA 3.3–3.3 NYI; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
ANA← edge
edge →NYI
49.5%46.1%
49.5%51.1%
3.112.68
3.173.14
3.003.00
3.252.13
0.9831.046
NYI holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.983 vs 1.046) says NYI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 8
ANA
4-4-0
-2 GD · 0d rest
NYI
4-3-1
+6 GD · 2d rest
0.983
ANA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.046
NYI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Ducks own the underlying play
The Ducks own the underlying play — 49.5% 5v5 xG vs 46.1%.
WARNINGNYI
Regression watch: Islanders
The Islanders' PDO is 1.046 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGANA
Regression watch: Ducks
The Ducks' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Ducks own the underlying play — 49.5% 5v5 xG vs 46.1%.
Regression watch
- The Islanders' PDO is 1.046 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Ducks' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Ducks own the underlying play — 49.5% 5v5 xG vs 46.1%.
- Goalie matchup: V. Husso (+0.1 GSAx in 3 GP, 88.5% SV) vs I. Sorokin (+6.2 GSAx in 6 GP, 94.0% SV).
- I. Sorokin has the GSAx edge — 6.1 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Islanders' PDO is 1.046 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Islanders have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
ANA
vs NYR · Mon, Oct 19
Expected in goal
V. Husso
back-to-back.833 last start60:00 played
Backup Lukas Dostal · -1.4 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- A. Killorn18:44
- A. Greer13:53
- J. Caulfield13:25
- J. Malott09:47
- N. Klepov12:55
- T. Washe15:38
- B. Sennecke15:37
- C. Gauthier16:12
- M. Granlund16:08
- F. Vatrano14:36
- L. Carlsson15:09
- R. McQueen16:25
Defence · 6
- J. LaCombe20:45
- N. Jensen18:12
- N. Warren15:28
- T. Hinds20:16
- T. Luneau20:47
- P. Mintyukov19:17
NYI
vs TOR · Sat, Oct 17
Expected in goal
I. Sorokin
2 days rest.966 last start60:00 played
Backup Semyon Varlamov · +3.3 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Schenn19:39
- A. Duclair15:16
- B. Horvat24:21
- K. Palmieri14:34
- V. Eklund12:55
- J. Pageau19:31
- E. Heineman16:31
- C. Cizikas14:25
- M. Maccelli05:39
- C. Ritchie00:28
- O. Palat13:02
- S. Holmstrom20:01
Defence · 6
- A. Pelech18:54
- M. Kessel16:18
- R. Pulock20:39
- L. Stanley22:17
- M. Schaefer24:21
- T. DeAngelo15:09
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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