WARNINGCOL
M. Blackwood on a back-to-back
M. Blackwood projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · COL at NJD
Avalanche at Devils: no daylight between these two
The model's leanTue, Oct 20
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 20, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
New Jersey is a narrow favorite, and the model treats this as close to a pick'em as you'll find. The Devils have been the better team on the ice, and the luck is trending their way too. What could blunt that edge is a goalie starting on no rest.
The Devils own the underlying play. New Jersey holds 58.0% of five-on-five expected goals, a measure of chance quality rather than goals scored. Colorado is at 53.7%, a real gap but not a runaway.
The edge is wider when you count every shot attempt, on goal or not. New Jersey holds 62.5% of them, so expect the Devils to dictate where the puck spends its time. Colorado sits at 52.4%.
Luck points the same way. Colorado's combined shooting and save percentage is 1.061, running hot, so expect some regression. New Jersey's is 0.962, running cold, and is due for positive regression.
Rest is the wrinkle. The Devils come in on 2 days of rest, and the Avalanche on 0 days. M. Blackwood projects to start the second night of a back-to-back, so watch for a backup start or tired legs.
The goaltending numbers are thin on sample size. M. Blackwood has a save percentage of 88.9% across 7 games played. His goals-saved figure is -1.3, meaning he has let in more goals than his shots should have allowed. J. Allen carries the heavier number, a goals-saved figure of -3.6 across 5 games played, with a save percentage of 87.6%.
Call it a coin flip that leans New Jersey. The Devils have the play and the luck trend, and the rest and goaltending decide whether that's enough.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
NJD 51%
51%
NJD
Model favorite
49%
51%
COL50NJD
NJD by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score COL 3.2–3.3 NJD; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
COL← edge
edge →NJD
53.7%58.0%
52.4%62.5%
3.263.81
2.812.76
4.223.13
2.893.38
1.0610.962
NJD holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.061 vs 0.962) says COL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 8–9
COL
5-3-1
+11 GD · 0d rest
NJD
4-4-0
-2 GD · 2d rest
1.061
COL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.962
NJD PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Devils own the underlying play
The Devils own the underlying play — 58.0% 5v5 xG vs 53.7%.
TACTICAL
The Devils drive Corsi at 62.5%
The Devils drive Corsi at 62.5% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGNJD
Regression watch: Devils
The Devils' PDO is 0.962 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Devils own the underlying play — 58.0% 5v5 xG vs 53.7%.
- The Devils drive Corsi at 62.5% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Devils' PDO is 0.962 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Avalanche's PDO is 1.061 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Devils own the underlying play — 58.0% 5v5 xG vs 53.7%.
- The Devils drive Corsi at 62.5% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: M. Blackwood (-1.3 GSAx in 7 GP, 88.9% SV) vs J. Allen (-3.6 GSAx in 5 GP, 87.6% SV).
- M. Blackwood is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
- The Devils' PDO is 0.962 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Devils have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
COL
vs PHI · Mon, Oct 19
Expected in goal
M. Blackwood
back-to-back.875 last start57:58 played
Backup Scott Wedgewood · -0.0 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 11
- F. Svechkov16:05
- B. Nelson18:46
- T. Hughes16:54
- P. Kelly12:31
- N. MacKinnon24:20
- G. Brindley07:57
- A. Lehkonen19:06
- J. Schwartz16:27
- M. Necas17:40
- N. Kadri21:17
- G. Landeskog14:36
Defence · 7
- D. Toews20:48
- C. Makar23:38
- B. Kulak16:00
- J. Manson14:16
- N. Juulsen08:35
- S. Malinski14:40
- B. Burns15:52
NJD
vs WSH · Sat, Oct 17
Expected in goal
J. Allen
2 days rest.840 last start60:00 played
Backup Nico Daws · -1.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Noesen10:12
- C. Glass11:37
- N. Hischier19:00
- E. Rodrigues15:25
- T. Meier15:03
- A. Mantha12:37
- J. Bratt18:49
- J. Boqvist12:25
- A. Gritsyuk17:17
- J. Hughes22:42
- D. Mercer17:08
- A. Lombardi10:54
Defence · 6
- D. Hamilton21:56
- J. Kovacevic13:29
- B. Pesce21:46
- L. Hughes23:29
- D. Chisholm13:26
- J. Siegenthaler19:13
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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