WARNINGSJS
Y. Askarov on a back-to-back
Y. Askarov projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · SJS at MTL
The Canadiens are the model's lean over the Sharks — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanTue, Oct 20
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 20, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Montreal is the model's pick, and the case rests on rest, goaltending and territory. The projection is a 3.5 to 3.1 Canadiens win.
The schedule does much of the work. Montreal arrives on 2 days of rest, while San Jose has 0, and Y. Askarov is projected to start the second night of a back-to-back. That is the spot to watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Montreal also controls the play. Its share of five-on-five expected goals is 50.0%, against 42.8% for San Jose. Shot attempts tell the same story, with Montreal owning 55.5% of them, which is the territorial tilt to expect.
San Jose is also underwater, at -9 in goal differential over its 9 games so far.
The luck question matters more than it looks. PDO is the sum of shooting and save percentages, and by the model's reading both teams are running cold. Montreal's PDO is 0.967, and San Jose's is 0.956. Both are due for positive regression.
In goal, Y. Askarov sits at -0.9 goals saved above expected over 6 games. That means he has allowed more goals than his shots should have produced. J. Fowler, on the other side, is at +2.5 over 4 games, which means he has stopped more than the shots suggested he would.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
MTL 57%
57%
MTL
Model favorite
43%
57%
SJS50MTL
MTL by 14 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score SJS 3.1–3.5 MTL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
SJS← edge
edge →MTL
42.8%50.0%
48.2%55.5%
2.723.34
3.643.34
2.443.13
3.443.75
0.9560.967
MTL holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.956 vs 0.967) says MTL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 8–9
SJS
4-4-1
-9 GD · 0d rest
MTL
4-3-1
-3 GD · 2d rest
0.956
SJS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.967
MTL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Canadiens own the underlying play
The Canadiens own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 42.8%.
TACTICAL
The Canadiens drive Corsi at 55.5%
The Canadiens drive Corsi at 55.5% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGMTL
Regression watch: Canadiens
The Canadiens' PDO is 0.967 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Canadiens own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 42.8%.
- The Canadiens drive Corsi at 55.5% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Canadiens' PDO is 0.967 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Sharks' PDO is 0.956 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Canadiens own the underlying play — 50.0% 5v5 xG vs 42.8%.
- The Canadiens drive Corsi at 55.5% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: Y. Askarov (-0.9 GSAx in 6 GP, 86.5% SV) vs J. Fowler (+2.5 GSAx in 4 GP, 90.0% SV).
- Y. Askarov is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
- The Sharks are underwater at -9 goal differential over their 9 games so far.
- The Canadiens' PDO is 0.967 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Canadiens have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
SJS
vs TOR · Mon, Oct 19
Expected in goal
Y. Askarov
back-to-back.935 last start58:59 played
Backup Alex Nedeljkovic · +2.5 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- W. Smith22:03
- A. Wennberg16:29
- B. Goodrow08:48
- M. Marchment15:52
- I. Stenberg14:27
- K. Sherwood13:35
- C. Graf14:21
- Z. Ostapchuk08:05
- M. Celebrini21:59
- T. Toffoli13:36
- M. Misa14:30
- I. Chernyshov15:59
Defence · 6
- S. Dickinson18:02
- M. Kesselring21:23
- D. Orlov15:21
- D. Nurse23:53
- L. Cagnoni12:52
- J. Trouba20:20
MTL
vs BUF · Sat, Oct 17
Expected in goal
J. Fowler
2 days rest.885 last start60:54 played
Backup Jakub Dobes · -4.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- C. Caufield18:03
- N. Suzuki20:49
- A. Newhook16:21
- J. Anderson14:22
- J. Slafkovský17:51
- C. Kreider14:06
- P. Danault15:06
- J. Evans13:29
- Z. Bolduc14:48
- K. Dach11:37
- A. Texier11:29
- O. Kapanen11:40
Defence · 6
- K. Guhle23:21
- A. Carrier22:08
- L. Hutson26:38
- N. Dobson21:16
- D. Reinbacher09:09
- A. Xhekaj12:29
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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