WARNINGTOR
S. Bobrovsky on a back-to-back
S. Bobrovsky projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · TOR at CBJ
Maple Leafs at Blue Jackets: too close to call
The model's leanTue, Oct 20
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 20, 9:02 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a TOR 3.1 - 3.4 CBJ game with the Blue Jackets at 54% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- S. Bobrovsky on a back-to-back. S. Bobrovsky projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
- Regression watch: Blue Jackets. The Blue Jackets' PDO is 1.015 — running hot, expect some regression.
- Regression watch: Maple Leafs. The Maple Leafs' PDO is 0.970 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Form Check
- The Blue Jackets are underwater at -5 goal differential over their 7 games so far.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | TOR | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 48.2% | 46.2% |
| Corsi% | 47.2% | 47.4% |
| PDO | 0.970 | 1.015 |
Regression Watch
- The Blue Jackets' PDO is 1.015 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Maple Leafs' PDO is 0.970 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: S. Bobrovsky (+3.4 GSAx in 7 GP, 90.2% SV) vs C. Talbot (-0.6 GSAx in 3 GP, 87.5% SV).
- S. Bobrovsky is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
CBJ 54%
54%
CBJ
Model favorite
46%
54%
TOR50CBJ
CBJ by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score TOR 3.1–3.4 CBJ; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
TOR← edge
edge →CBJ
48.2%46.2%
47.2%47.4%
3.232.80
3.463.26
3.202.43
3.203.29
0.9701.015
TOR holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.970 vs 1.015) says CBJ has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 7–10
TOR
4-4-2
-1 GD · 0d rest
CBJ
3-4-0
-5 GD · 1d rest
0.970
TOR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.015
CBJ PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGCBJ
Regression watch: Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets' PDO is 1.015 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGTOR
Regression watch: Maple Leafs
The Maple Leafs' PDO is 0.970 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
Too close to call
Win probability splits 54%–46% — margins decide this one.
Regression watch
- The Blue Jackets' PDO is 1.015 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Maple Leafs' PDO is 0.970 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- Goalie matchup: S. Bobrovsky (+3.4 GSAx in 7 GP, 90.2% SV) vs C. Talbot (-0.6 GSAx in 3 GP, 87.5% SV).
- S. Bobrovsky is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
- The Blue Jackets are underwater at -5 goal differential over their 7 games so far.
- The Blue Jackets' PDO is 1.015 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
TOR
vs SJS · Mon, Oct 19
Expected in goal
S. Bobrovsky
back-to-back.968 last start60:00 played
Backup Anthony Stolarz · -1.9 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- C. Sissons16:15
- Z. MacEwen05:56
- N. Paul18:52
- B. Duhaime10:42
- A. Matthews20:57
- E. Cowan15:19
- V. Lettieri09:20
- T. Blueger11:52
- K. Marchenko17:21
- W. Nylander20:47
- G. McKenna11:30
- J. Roslovic15:13
Defence · 6
- N. Blankenburg10:16
- J. McCabe23:01
- T. Stecher20:13
- D. Raddysh26:39
- M. Rielly21:05
- O. Ekman-Larsson14:42
CBJ
vs MIN · Sun, Oct 18
Expected in goal
C. Talbot
1 day rest.943 last start58:00 played
Backup Jet Greaves · +0.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- C. Coyle19:41
- C. Sillinger13:37
- A. Fantilli21:18
- S. Monahan17:02
- M. Olivier18:04
- V. Nichushkin16:33
- D. Heinen08:15
- C. Garland11:21
- M. Knies19:55
- K. Johnson18:52
- L. Del Bel Belluz07:45
- R. Lomberg07:23
Defence · 6
- J. Christiansen16:47
- D. Mateychuk19:54
- C. Soucy11:52
- Z. Werenski28:43
- E. Gudbranson14:19
- D. Severson23:23
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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