TACTICAL
The Blues drive Corsi at 51.7%
The Blues drive Corsi at 51.7% — expect territorial tilt.
Preview · WPG at STL
Jets at Blues: no daylight between these two
The model's leanTue, Oct 20
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 20, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Winnipeg and St. Louis are about as even as an NHL matchup gets. The model projects a game decided by one goal, with a slight lean toward the Blues.
St. Louis has been the team pushing play. The Blues drive shot attempts at 51.7%, and the model expects that territorial tilt to show up on the ice.
The Blues' luck is running cold. Their combined shooting and save percentage sits at 0.964, which the model reads as a team due for positive regression.
Expected goals don't separate them. Both clubs sit at 49.9% of the expected-goals share, which is why the model calls this a near coin flip. Win probability splits 52%–48%, so margins will decide it.
Goaltending is where the model sees a clearer difference. C. Stevenson has the goals-saved edge this season, sitting 6.4 goals above his counterpart, J. Binnington. Over three games each, Stevenson has stopped 89.3% of shots. Binnington has stopped 83.1%.
Nothing here makes this a lock. The Blues' territorial edge and the goalie gap point the same way, but the margin is thin enough that one bounce could settle it.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
STL 52%
52%
STL
Model favorite
48%
52%
WPG50STL
STL by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score WPG 3.0–3.1 STL; 17% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
WPG← edge
edge →STL
49.9%49.9%
47.5%51.7%
3.182.84
3.202.85
2.883.38
3.003.50
1.0130.964
STL holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.013 vs 0.964) says WPG has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 8
WPG
4-2-2
-1 GD · 2d rest
STL
3-4-1
-1 GD · 2d rest
1.013
WPG PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.964
STL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGSTL
Regression watch: Blues
The Blues' PDO is 0.964 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
No daylight between these two
Win probability splits 52%–48% — margins decide this one.
TACTICALSTL
J. Binnington was beatable last time out
J. Binnington stopped just 79.2% in his last start.
Where the edges live
- The Blues drive Corsi at 51.7% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Blues' PDO is 0.964 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Blues drive Corsi at 51.7% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: C. Stevenson (-0.7 GSAx in 3 GP, 89.3% SV) vs J. Binnington (-7.1 GSAx in 3 GP, 83.1% SV).
- C. Stevenson has the GSAx edge — 6.4 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Blues' PDO is 0.964 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
WPG
vs CAR · Sat, Oct 17
Expected in goal
C. Stevenson
2 days rest.919 last start59:00 played
Backup Stuart Skinner · +1.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- A. Iafallo16:26
- G. Vilardi18:47
- A. Lowry15:04
- I. Rosen15:21
- M. Barron10:51
- C. Koepke06:55
- M. Scheifele19:19
- V. Björck17:11
- N. Niederreiter14:17
- K. Connor20:12
- C. Perfetti16:42
- B. Lambert05:55
Defence · 6
- D. DeMelo21:33
- N. Pionk23:21
- J. St. Ivany12:22
- H. Fleury20:16
- M. Ferraro18:04
- D. Samberg22:44
STL
vs NSH · Sat, Oct 17
Expected in goal
J. Binnington
2 days rest.792 last start59:39 played
Backup Joel Hofer · +2.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 11
- D. Dvorsky10:34
- R. Thomas22:32
- J. Snuggerud19:41
- P. Suter14:21
- J. Berggren18:10
- D. Peterson09:52
- J. Neighbours16:48
- C. McMichael18:31
- D. Holloway19:33
- M. McTavish18:36
- P. Buchnevich18:32
Defence · 7
- T. Lindstein13:42
- P. Broberg25:10
- C. Fowler19:52
- B. Carlo12:29
- A. Jiricek10:17
- C. Parayko17:22
- J. Barron12:19
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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