TACTICAL
The Stars own the underlying play
The Stars own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.7%.
Preview · BOS at DAL
The Stars are the model's lean over the Bruins — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanTue, Oct 20
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 20, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model leans toward Dallas, and the reason has less to do with the scoreboard than with who has been doing the underlying work. Boston has the better form, but the numbers suggest some of that form is luck.
The model gives Dallas a 58% chance to win and projects 3.4 goals for the Stars against 2.8 for the Bruins. Dallas has the stronger five-on-five game by expected goals, which weighs each shot by how likely it was to become a goal. The Stars hold 54.0% of that share, while Boston sits at 46.7%.
Shot attempts tell a closer story. Dallas holds 49.9% of them, a nearly even split with Boston.
Luck is where Boston's case gets shaky. The Bruins' combined shooting and save percentage, known as PDO, sits at 1.061 and is running hot. A number that high tends to come back down, so expect some regression. Dallas is running hot too, at 1.048, though its gap is smaller and it should expect some regression as well.
The goalie matchup is where the lean gets tested. J. Swayman has been worth 8.1 goals saved above expected in 7 games, meaning he has stopped more pucks than his shots suggested he should. His save percentage is 93.4%. J. Oettinger has 8.0 goals saved above expected in 6 games, and his save percentage of 95.2% is the better of the two.
Dallas has the better underlying game, and Boston's hot start is the part of the story most likely to fade.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
DAL 58%
58%
DAL
Model favorite
42%
58%
BOS50DAL
DAL by 16 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score BOS 2.8–3.4 DAL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
BOS← edge
edge →DAL
46.7%54.0%
48.7%49.9%
2.952.97
3.372.53
3.782.38
2.111.50
1.0611.048
DAL holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.061 vs 1.048) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 8–9
BOS
7-2-0
+15 GD · 2d rest
DAL
4-3-1
+7 GD · 2d rest
1.061
BOS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.048
DAL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGDAL
Regression watch: Stars
The Stars' PDO is 1.048 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGBOS
Regression watch: Bruins
The Bruins' PDO is 1.061 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Stars own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.7%.
Regression watch
- The Stars' PDO is 1.048 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Bruins' PDO is 1.061 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Stars own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.7%.
- Goalie matchup: J. Swayman (+8.1 GSAx in 7 GP, 93.4% SV) vs J. Oettinger (+8.0 GSAx in 6 GP, 95.2% SV).
- The Bruins are the hotter team by points pace (7-2-0 over their 9 games so far).
- The Stars' PDO is 1.048 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
BOS
vs LAK · Sat, Oct 17
Expected in goal
J. Swayman
2 days rest.962 last start60:00 played
Backup Michael DiPietro · +2.3 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Peterka18:01
- C. Mittelstadt13:53
- E. Lindholm16:45
- M. Geekie17:47
- J. Hagens11:17
- M. Kastelic11:22
- M. Poitras10:29
- S. Kuraly14:19
- T. Jeannot11:05
- D. Pastrnak20:57
- M. Khusnutdinov11:07
- F. Minten20:30
Defence · 6
- M. Lohrei18:24
- W. Borgen16:55
- H. Lindholm20:28
- F. Brunet16:48
- J. Aspirot17:58
- C. McAvoy25:55
DAL
vs CHI · Sat, Oct 17
Expected in goal
J. Oettinger
2 days rest1.000 last start59:50 played
Backup Casey DeSmith · +0.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- R. Faksa10:48
- J. Benn12:04
- C. Blackwell10:36
- S. Steel13:42
- J. Robertson19:35
- J. Kiviranta12:55
- R. Hintz16:53
- A. Hyry12:00
- J. Hryckowian12:49
- W. Johnston20:25
- T. Seguin17:04
- M. Rantanen18:46
Defence · 6
- M. Heiskanen24:09
- N. Lundkvist18:04
- L. Bichsel13:26
- E. Lindell19:58
- T. Harley24:47
- T. Myers14:09
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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