TACTICAL
The Wild drive Corsi at 52.3%
The Wild drive Corsi at 52.3% — expect territorial tilt.
Preview · MIN at EDM
Wild at Oilers: a genuine coin flip
The model's leanTue, Oct 20
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 20, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model won't pick a side in Minnesota at Edmonton. Its verdict is a coin flip, and the margins will decide it.
The model projects a 3.2-3.2 finish, a dead-even scoreline. Edmonton holds a 51% win probability, which is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Minnesota's case is territorial. The Wild have controlled more of the play at 5-on-5 this season, and they also generate the better share of expected goals, meaning the chances the shots should produce. Expect the Wild to get the territory.
Edmonton's case is luck. The Oilers' PDO, the combined shooting and save percentage, is running hot, and the model expects some regression. A team that has been getting the bounces usually stops getting them.
The goaltending tilts toward Minnesota. J. Wallstedt has posted +5.6 goals saved above expected in 8 games, with a 92.2% save percentage. T. Jarry is at -2.8 goals saved above expected in 3 games, with an 87.3% save percentage. J. Wallstedt has the goaltending edge, 8.4 goals above his counterpart this season.
Season numbers at 5-on-5
| Metric | MIN | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 55.7% | 52.7% |
| Share of shot attempts | 52.3% | 47.6% |
| PDO (shooting plus save luck) | 0.997 | 1.088 |
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 9:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
EDM 51%
51%
EDM
Model favorite
49%
51%
MIN50EDM
EDM by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score MIN 3.2–3.2 EDM; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
MIN← edge
edge →EDM
55.7%52.7%
52.3%47.6%
3.642.88
2.892.58
3.114.63
2.333.00
0.9971.088
MIN holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.997 vs 1.088) says EDM has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 8–9
MIN
6-2-1
+7 GD · 1d rest
EDM
6-1-1
+13 GD · 2d rest
0.997
MIN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.088
EDM PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGEDM
Regression watch: Oilers
The Oilers' PDO is 1.088 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
A genuine coin flip
Win probability splits 51%–49% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Wild drive Corsi at 52.3% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Oilers' PDO is 1.088 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Wild drive Corsi at 52.3% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Wallstedt (+5.6 GSAx in 8 GP, 92.2% SV) vs T. Jarry (-2.8 GSAx in 3 GP, 87.3% SV).
- J. Wallstedt has the GSAx edge — 8.4 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Oilers' PDO is 1.088 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
MIN
vs CBJ · Sun, Oct 18
Expected in goal
J. Wallstedt
1 day rest.933 last start60:00 played
Backup Calvin Pickard · -2.3 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Brink16:06
- M. Boldy21:50
- Y. Trenin12:40
- J. Eriksson Ek21:18
- T. Pitlick08:16
- B. Coleman16:27
- D. Yurov14:57
- R. Hartman13:08
- M. McCarron11:28
- M. Shabanov13:32
- R. Lorenz08:22
- K. Kaprizov22:32
Defence · 6
- Z. Bogosian21:08
- J. Brodin22:54
- M. Kiersted12:30
- Q. Hughes25:21
- D. Hunt19:25
- D. Spacek14:06
EDM
vs UTA · Sat, Oct 17
Expected in goal
T. Jarry
2 days rest.929 last start60:00 played
Backup Devon Levi · -0.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- T. Frederic09:23
- Z. Hyman16:32
- F. Hallander10:27
- M. Joseph12:35
- A. Formenton12:06
- L. Draisaitl18:31
- C. Dach16:52
- K. Kapanen18:00
- O. Michaels13:06
- I. Howard10:35
- V. Podkolzin17:30
- C. McDavid19:52
Defence · 6
- E. Bouchard24:04
- C. Murphy21:04
- R. Shea21:12
- M. Ekholm22:43
- T. Emberson14:54
- J. Walman16:34
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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