TACTICAL
The Red Wings drive Corsi at 51.5%
The Red Wings drive Corsi at 51.5% — expect territorial tilt.
Preview · DET at SEA
Red Wings at Kraken: too close to call
The model's leanTue, Oct 20
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 20, 9:03 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a DET 3.3 - 3.2 SEA game with the Red Wings at 52% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- The Red Wings drive Corsi at 51.5%. The Red Wings drive Corsi at 51.5% — expect territorial tilt.
- Regression watch: Kraken. The Kraken's PDO is 1.054 — running hot, expect some regression.
- Too close to call. Win probability splits 48%–52% — margins decide this one.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | DET | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 49.3% | 46.5% |
| Corsi% | 51.5% | 43.6% |
| PDO | 0.996 | 1.054 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Red Wings drive Corsi at 51.5% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Kraken's PDO is 1.054 — running hot, expect some regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: J. Gibson (-1.6 GSAx in 6 GP, 87.3% SV) vs J. Daccord (-2.8 GSAx in 5 GP, 88.2% SV).
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 9:40 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
DET 52%
52%
DET
Model favorite
52%
48%
DET50SEA
DET by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score DET 3.3–3.2 SEA; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
DET← edge
edge →SEA
49.3%46.5%
51.5%43.6%
3.292.99
3.383.44
2.383.78
2.883.44
0.9961.054
DET holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.996 vs 1.054) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 8–9
DET
3-3-2
-4 GD · 2d rest
SEA
5-3-1
+4 GD · 2d rest
0.996
DET PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.054
SEA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGSEA
Regression watch: Kraken
The Kraken's PDO is 1.054 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
Too close to call
Win probability splits 48%–52% — margins decide this one.
TACTICALSEA
J. Daccord was beatable last time out
J. Daccord stopped just 78.4% in his last start.
Where the edges live
- The Red Wings drive Corsi at 51.5% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Kraken's PDO is 1.054 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Red Wings drive Corsi at 51.5% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Gibson (-1.6 GSAx in 6 GP, 87.3% SV) vs J. Daccord (-2.8 GSAx in 5 GP, 88.2% SV).
- The Kraken's PDO is 1.054 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
DET
vs SJS · Sat, Oct 17
Expected in goal
J. Gibson
2 days rest.912 last start64:20 played
Backup Daniil Tarasov · +4.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 11
- S. Dries10:12
- A. Copp20:53
- L. Raymond20:02
- M. Rasmussen18:34
- M. Brandsegg-Nygård17:02
- N. Danielson13:17
- V. Arvidsson20:58
- K. Kolesar05:18
- E. Finnie18:45
- D. Larkin24:39
- A. DeBrincat19:16
Defence · 7
- B. Chiarot22:42
- A. Johansson14:10
- A. Englund09:02
- A. Johansson11:44
- M. Seider29:46
- W. Wallinder12:41
- J. Faulk19:43
SEA
vs FLA · Sat, Oct 17
Expected in goal
J. Daccord
2 days rest.784 last start58:34 played
Backup Philipp Grubauer · +1.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Eberle14:00
- C. Stephenson15:23
- M. Beniers18:44
- M. Samoskevich16:40
- J. McCann18:59
- R. Winterton12:10
- B. Catton15:00
- S. Wright14:18
- B. Meyers13:37
- B. McMann15:24
- K. Kakko15:07
- F. Gaudreau15:17
Defence · 6
- A. Larsson18:55
- C. Fleury15:39
- J. Mahura18:34
- V. Dunn20:30
- R. Evans23:16
- V. Ottavainen16:03
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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