TACTICAL
The Penguins own the underlying play
The Penguins own the underlying play — 53.9% 5v5 xG vs 37.3%.
Preview · PIT at WSH
Penguins at Capitals: too close to call
The model's leanWed, Oct 7
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 7, 9:24 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a PIT 3.4 - 3.3 WSH game with the Penguins at 51% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- Rest edge. The Capitals come in on 3 days of rest; the other side on 1.
- The Penguins own the underlying play . The Penguins own the underlying play — 53.9% 5v5 xG vs 37.3%.
- The Penguins drive Corsi at 50.5% . The Penguins drive Corsi at 50.5% — expect territorial tilt.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | PIT | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 53.9% | 37.3% |
| Corsi% | 50.5% | 44.6% |
| PDO | 1.036 | 1.068 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Penguins own the underlying play — 53.9% 5v5 xG vs 37.3%.
- The Penguins drive Corsi at 50.5% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Capitals' PDO is 1.068 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Penguins' PDO is 1.036 — running hot, expect some regression.
Rest edge. The Capitals come in on 3 days of rest; the Penguins on 1 day.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: S. Murashov (+0.7 GSAx in 1 GP, 91.4% SV) vs C. Lindgren (+2.1 GSAx in 1 GP, 93.1% SV).
Players to Watch
Key Matchups
WSH
- Most goals from slot (4G on 23 shots, 17%) — deny that lane
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:30 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
PIT 51%
51%
PIT
Model favorite
51%
49%
PIT50WSH
PIT by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score PIT 3.4–3.3 WSH; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
PIT← edge
edge →WSH
53.9%37.3%
50.5%44.6%
3.342.45
2.864.11
5.003.00
2.672.50
1.0361.068
PIT holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.036 vs 1.068) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 2–3
PIT
2-1-0
+7 GD · 1d rest
WSH
1-1-0
+1 GD · 3d rest
1.036
PIT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.068
WSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Penguins drive Corsi at 50.5%
The Penguins drive Corsi at 50.5% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGWSH
Regression watch: Capitals
The Capitals' PDO is 1.068 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGPIT
Regression watch: Penguins
The Penguins' PDO is 1.036 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Penguins own the underlying play — 53.9% 5v5 xG vs 37.3%.
- The Penguins drive Corsi at 50.5% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Capitals' PDO is 1.068 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Penguins' PDO is 1.036 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Penguins own the underlying play — 53.9% 5v5 xG vs 37.3%.
- The Penguins drive Corsi at 50.5% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: S. Murashov (+0.7 GSAx in 1 GP, 91.4% SV) vs C. Lindgren (+2.1 GSAx in 1 GP, 93.1% SV).
- The Capitals' PDO is 1.068 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Capitals have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
PIT
vs WPG · Mon, Oct 5
Expected in goal
S. Murashov
1 day rest.914 last start57:23 played
Backup Arturs Silovs · -0.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- N. Robertson15:14
- T. Novak15:12
- C. Dewar14:46
- H. Lapierre10:58
- V. Koivunen13:30
- B. Lizotte12:12
- E. Chinakhov14:00
- A. Kuzmenko12:17
- R. Rakell20:37
- E. Malkin17:47
- B. Kindel18:37
- S. Crosby19:27
Defence · 6
- K. Korczak13:22
- S. Girard17:12
- T. van Riemsdyk19:40
- K. Letang23:23
- E. Karlsson24:00
- D. Carlile18:23
WSH
vs TBL · Sat, Oct 3
Expected in goal
C. Lindgren
3 days rest.931 last start57:36 played
Backup Logan Thompson · +1.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- A. Ovechkin13:34
- R. Leonard14:10
- D. Strome18:02
- A. Protas15:21
- B. Jenner14:57
- J. Kyrou14:45
- J. Sourdif12:24
- T. Wilson17:49
- I. Protas09:55
- A. Beauvillier11:37
- P. Dubois18:34
- A. Tuch17:53
Defence · 6
- M. Roy14:22
- J. Chychrun27:11
- T. Liljegren17:11
- M. Fehérváry18:11
- C. Hutson21:03
- V. Desharnais15:25
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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