TACTICAL
The Avalanche own the underlying play
The Avalanche own the underlying play — 59.2% 5v5 xG vs 53.7%.
Preview · COL at WPG
Avalanche at Jets: no daylight between these two
The model's leanWed, Oct 7
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 7, 9:24 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a COL 3.4 - 3.1 WPG game with the Avalanche at 54% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- Rest edge. The Avalanche come in on 3 days of rest; the other side on 1.
- The Avalanche own the underlying play . The Avalanche own the underlying play — 59.2% 5v5 xG vs 53.7%.
- The Avalanche drive Corsi at 50.5% . The Avalanche drive Corsi at 50.5% — expect territorial tilt.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | COL | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 59.2% | 53.7% |
| Corsi% | 50.5% | 46.0% |
| PDO | 1.157 | 1.000 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Avalanche own the underlying play — 59.2% 5v5 xG vs 53.7%.
- The Avalanche drive Corsi at 50.5% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Avalanche's PDO is 1.157 — running hot, expect some regression.
Rest edge. The Jets come in on 1 day of rest; the Avalanche on 3 days.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: M. Blackwood (-0.8 GSAx in 2 GP, 91.2% SV) vs C. Stevenson (+0.3 GSAx in 1 GP, 93.5% SV).
Players to Watch
Key Matchups
COL
- Most goals from slot (6G on 38 shots, 16%) — deny that lane
WPG
- Most goals from slot (4G on 40 shots, 10%) — deny that lane
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:30 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
COL 54%
54%
COL
Model favorite
54%
46%
COL50WPG
COL by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score COL 3.4–3.1 WPG; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
COL← edge
edge →WPG
59.2%53.7%
50.5%46.0%
3.203.92
2.213.38
7.003.00
2.502.67
1.1571.000
COL holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.157 vs 1.000) says COL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 2–3
COL
2-0-0
+9 GD · 3d rest
WPG
2-0-1
+1 GD · 1d rest
1.157
COL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.000
WPG PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Avalanche drive Corsi at 50.5%
The Avalanche drive Corsi at 50.5% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGCOL
Regression watch: Avalanche
The Avalanche's PDO is 1.157 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICALCOL
Rest edge
The Avalanche come in on 3 days of rest; the other side on 1.
Push the pace early against tired legs.
Where the edges live
- The Avalanche own the underlying play — 59.2% 5v5 xG vs 53.7%.
- The Avalanche drive Corsi at 50.5% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Avalanche's PDO is 1.157 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Avalanche own the underlying play — 59.2% 5v5 xG vs 53.7%.
- The Avalanche drive Corsi at 50.5% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: M. Blackwood (-0.8 GSAx in 2 GP, 91.2% SV) vs C. Stevenson (+0.3 GSAx in 1 GP, 93.5% SV).
- The Avalanche's PDO is 1.157 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Avalanche have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
COL
vs STL · Sat, Oct 3
Expected in goal
M. Blackwood
3 days rest.962 last start60:00 played
Forwards · 11
- F. Svechkov15:05
- N. Roy12:53
- B. Nelson16:11
- T. Hughes19:56
- P. Kelly15:31
- N. MacKinnon18:16
- A. Lehkonen19:26
- J. Schwartz14:14
- M. Necas19:21
- N. Kadri18:27
- G. Landeskog14:35
Defence · 7
- D. Toews18:55
- C. Makar20:04
- B. Kulak16:48
- J. Manson16:36
- N. Juulsen10:55
- S. Malinski15:37
- B. Burns13:10
WPG
vs PIT · Mon, Oct 5
Expected in goal
C. Stevenson
1 day rest.935 last start60:00 played
Backup Stuart Skinner · +1.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- V. Namestnikov11:04
- A. Iafallo10:24
- G. Vilardi14:21
- A. Lowry15:49
- I. Rosen12:05
- M. Barron15:55
- C. Koepke08:29
- M. Scheifele21:18
- V. Björck13:30
- K. Connor21:59
- C. Perfetti19:59
- B. Lambert12:43
Defence · 6
- D. DeMelo22:24
- N. Pionk20:04
- J. St. Ivany14:10
- M. Ferraro16:53
- J. Morrissey23:50
- D. Samberg21:03
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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