TACTICAL
The Oilers own the underlying play
The Oilers own the underlying play — 61.1% 5v5 xG vs 38.3%.
Preview · EDM at ANA
Oilers at Ducks: a true toss-up
The model's leanWed, Oct 7
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 7, 9:24 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a EDM 3.4 - 3.2 ANA game with the Oilers at 52% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- The Oilers own the underlying play . The Oilers own the underlying play — 61.1% 5v5 xG vs 38.3%.
- The Oilers drive Corsi at 57.1% . The Oilers drive Corsi at 57.1% — expect territorial tilt.
- Regression watch: Ducks. The Ducks' PDO is 1.056 — running hot, expect some regression.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | EDM | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 61.1% | 38.3% |
| Corsi% | 57.1% | 42.6% |
| PDO | 0.980 | 1.056 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Oilers own the underlying play — 61.1% 5v5 xG vs 38.3%.
- The Oilers drive Corsi at 57.1% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Ducks' PDO is 1.056 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Oilers' PDO is 0.980 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: D. Levi (-3.6 GSAx in 2 GP, 81.0% SV) vs L. Dostal (+1.3 GSAx in 2 GP, 91.8% SV).
Players to Watch
Key Matchups
EDM
- Most goals from slot (5G on 29 shots, 17%) — deny that lane
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 10:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
EDM 52%
52%
EDM
Model favorite
52%
48%
EDM50ANA
EDM by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score EDM 3.4–3.2 ANA; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
EDM← edge
edge →ANA
61.1%38.3%
57.1%42.6%
3.592.09
2.283.36
5.673.50
4.672.50
0.9801.056
EDM holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.980 vs 1.056) says ANA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 2–3
EDM
2-0-1
+3 GD · 3d rest
ANA
2-0-0
+2 GD · 2d rest
0.980
EDM PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.056
ANA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Oilers drive Corsi at 57.1%
The Oilers drive Corsi at 57.1% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGANA
Regression watch: Ducks
The Ducks' PDO is 1.056 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGEDM
Regression watch: Oilers
The Oilers' PDO is 0.980 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Oilers own the underlying play — 61.1% 5v5 xG vs 38.3%.
- The Oilers drive Corsi at 57.1% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Ducks' PDO is 1.056 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Oilers' PDO is 0.980 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Oilers own the underlying play — 61.1% 5v5 xG vs 38.3%.
- The Oilers drive Corsi at 57.1% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: D. Levi (-3.6 GSAx in 2 GP, 81.0% SV) vs L. Dostal (+1.3 GSAx in 2 GP, 91.8% SV).
- The Ducks' PDO is 1.056 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
EDM
vs SEA · Sat, Oct 3
Expected in goal
D. Levi
3 days rest.950 last start59:38 played
Backup Tristan Jarry · -4.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- T. Frederic08:15
- M. Joseph15:04
- A. Formenton14:03
- L. Draisaitl24:08
- C. Dach12:33
- K. Kapanen17:48
- O. Michaels13:58
- M. Jones09:42
- I. Howard08:22
- J. Samanski06:18
- V. Podkolzin20:22
- C. McDavid26:17
Defence · 6
- E. Bouchard27:01
- C. Murphy19:21
- R. Shea21:31
- M. Ekholm22:41
- T. Emberson11:22
- J. Walman13:52
ANA
vs FLA · Sun, Oct 4
Expected in goal
L. Dostal
2 days rest.935 last start63:43 played
Forwards · 12
- S. Colangelo10:24
- N. Nesterenko10:24
- A. Killorn16:32
- A. Greer15:02
- R. Poehling14:55
- J. Caulfield09:49
- J. Malott07:56
- T. Washe16:24
- B. Sennecke21:44
- C. Gauthier20:50
- M. Granlund22:31
- L. Carlsson20:26
Defence · 6
- J. LaCombe28:41
- T. Mitchell14:08
- N. Warren15:57
- T. Hinds14:44
- T. Luneau26:36
- P. Mintyukov19:50
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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