TACTICAL
The Mammoth own the underlying play
The Mammoth own the underlying play — 57.3% 5v5 xG vs 46.6%.
Preview · UTA at BOS
Mammoth at Bruins: a genuine coin flip
The model's leanThu, Oct 8
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 8, 9:25 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a UTA 3.4 - 3.1 BOS game with the Mammoth at 54% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- The Mammoth own the underlying play . The Mammoth own the underlying play — 57.3% 5v5 xG vs 46.6%.
- The Mammoth drive Corsi at 55.6% . The Mammoth drive Corsi at 55.6% — expect territorial tilt.
- Hot Zone: Mammoth. Their most productive scoring zone over last 5 games.
Form Check
- The Mammoth are the hotter team by points pace (3-1-0 over their 4 games so far).
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | UTA | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 57.3% | 46.6% |
| Corsi% | 55.6% | 51.5% |
| PDO | 1.008 | 1.009 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Mammoth own the underlying play — 57.3% 5v5 xG vs 46.6%.
- The Mammoth drive Corsi at 55.6% — expect territorial tilt.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: K. Vejmelka (+2.3 GSAx in 3 GP, 91.3% SV) vs J. Swayman (+2.6 GSAx in 3 GP, 91.4% SV).
Players to Watch
Key Matchups
UTA
- Most goals from slot (7G on 44 shots, 16%) — deny that lane
BOS
- Most goals from slot (5G on 32 shots, 16%) — deny that lane
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
UTA 54%
54%
UTA
Model favorite
54%
46%
UTA50BOS
UTA by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score UTA 3.4–3.1 BOS; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
UTA← edge
edge →BOS
57.3%46.6%
55.6%51.5%
3.903.05
2.913.50
4.252.25
2.002.75
1.0081.009
UTA holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.008 vs 1.009) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 4
UTA
3-1-0
+9 GD · 1d rest
BOS
2-2-0
-2 GD · 2d rest
1.008
UTA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.009
BOS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Mammoth drive Corsi at 55.6%
The Mammoth drive Corsi at 55.6% — expect territorial tilt.
TACTICAL
A genuine coin flip
Win probability splits 46%–54% — margins decide this one.
TACTICALUTA
Hot Zone: Mammoth
Their most productive scoring zone over last 5 games.
Most goals from slot (7G on 44 shots, 16%) — deny that lane
Where the edges live
- The Mammoth own the underlying play — 57.3% 5v5 xG vs 46.6%.
- The Mammoth drive Corsi at 55.6% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
- The Mammoth own the underlying play — 57.3% 5v5 xG vs 46.6%.
- The Mammoth drive Corsi at 55.6% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: K. Vejmelka (+2.3 GSAx in 3 GP, 91.3% SV) vs J. Swayman (+2.6 GSAx in 3 GP, 91.4% SV).
- The Mammoth are the hotter team by points pace (3-1-0 over their 4 games so far).
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
UTA
vs NJD · Tue, Oct 6
Expected in goal
K. Vejmelka
1 day rest.909 last start59:46 played
Backup Sebastian Cossa · +1.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- N. Schmaltz19:47
- C. Keller18:18
- D. Guenther17:31
- V. Trocheck14:44
- J. McBain13:12
- B. Hayton12:37
- D. But10:56
- M. Carcone10:50
- L. Crouse15:31
- A. Lee10:49
- K. Stenlund15:44
- L. Cooley18:52
Defence · 6
- J. Marino19:13
- A. Peeke17:00
- D. Simashev18:22
- M. Weegar20:17
- N. Schmidt23:27
- M. Sergachev15:04
BOS
vs OTT · Mon, Oct 5
Expected in goal
J. Swayman
2 days rest.833 last start60:00 played
Backup Michael DiPietro · +0.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Peterka15:20
- C. Mittelstadt12:56
- P. Zacha20:02
- E. Lindholm15:32
- M. Geekie20:58
- J. Hagens13:55
- M. Kastelic10:19
- M. Poitras11:28
- T. Jeannot10:47
- D. Pastrnak21:00
- M. Khusnutdinov11:32
- F. Minten16:16
Defence · 6
- M. Lohrei21:01
- W. Borgen16:25
- H. Lindholm18:46
- F. Brunet18:43
- C. Clifton19:17
- N. Zadorov19:39
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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