WARNINGBUF
Regression watch: Sabres
The Sabres' PDO is 0.948 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Preview · DAL at BUF
Stars at Sabres: too close to call
The model's leanThu, Oct 8
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 8, 9:25 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a DAL 3.1 - 3.2 BUF game with the Sabres at 52% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- Regression watch: Sabres. The Sabres' PDO is 0.948 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- Regression watch: Stars. The Stars' PDO is 1.061 — running hot, expect some regression.
- Hot Zone: Sabres. Their most productive scoring zone over last 5 games.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | DAL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 58.7% | 60.5% |
| Corsi% | 55.8% | 58.2% |
| PDO | 1.061 | 0.948 |
Regression Watch
- The Sabres' PDO is 0.948 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Stars' PDO is 1.061 — running hot, expect some regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: J. Oettinger (+2.1 GSAx in 2 GP, 94.3% SV) vs C. Ellis (-0.1 GSAx in 1 GP, 90.0% SV).
Players to Watch
Key Matchups
BUF
- Most goals from left-circle (3G on 17 shots, 18%) — deny that lane
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
BUF 52%
52%
BUF
Model favorite
48%
52%
DAL50BUF
BUF by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score DAL 3.1–3.2 BUF; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
DAL← edge
edge →BUF
58.7%60.5%
55.8%58.2%
3.173.81
2.232.48
2.003.33
2.003.67
1.0610.948
BUF holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.061 vs 0.948) says DAL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 3
DAL
1-2-0
+0 GD · 2d rest
BUF
2-1-0
-1 GD · 1d rest
1.061
DAL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.948
BUF PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGDAL
Regression watch: Stars
The Stars' PDO is 1.061 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
Too close to call
Win probability splits 52%–48% — margins decide this one.
TACTICALBUF
Hot Zone: Sabres
Their most productive scoring zone over last 5 games.
Most goals from left-circle (3G on 17 shots, 18%) — deny that lane
Regression watch
- The Sabres' PDO is 0.948 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Stars' PDO is 1.061 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- Goalie matchup: J. Oettinger (+2.1 GSAx in 2 GP, 94.3% SV) vs C. Ellis (-0.1 GSAx in 1 GP, 90.0% SV).
- The Sabres' PDO is 0.948 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
DAL
vs SJS · Mon, Oct 5
Expected in goal
J. Oettinger
2 days rest1.000 last start60:00 played
Backup Casey DeSmith · +0.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- O. Bäck11:48
- R. Faksa12:30
- J. Benn14:20
- S. Steel14:44
- J. Robertson17:46
- J. Kiviranta10:37
- R. Hintz15:31
- A. Hyry16:56
- J. Hryckowian16:14
- W. Johnston16:45
- T. Seguin16:28
- M. Rantanen17:34
Defence · 6
- M. Heiskanen20:37
- N. Lundkvist17:22
- L. Bichsel19:23
- E. Lindell18:54
- T. Harley21:31
- T. Myers17:19
BUF
vs MIN · Tue, Oct 6
Expected in goal
C. Ellis
1 day rest.900 last start64:22 played
Backup Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · -2.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- Z. Benson20:41
- J. Norris16:44
- J. Danforth08:17
- P. Krebs15:21
- J.Kulich13:56
- J. Quinn21:45
- B. Malenstyn08:28
- R. McLeod14:15
- T. Thompson20:23
- N. Ostlund20:39
- J. Doan12:05
- K. Helenius13:01
Defence · 6
- O. Zellweger14:52
- M. Samuelsson22:41
- O. Power29:04
- R. Dahlin29:15
- L. Crevier14:19
- Z. Metsa10:44
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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