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Motion-blurred skater in a Washington Capitals sweater
← Mon, Sep 21 · the slate
Breakdown · PHI at WSH · Preseason

Capitals pull away from the Flyers

FinalMon, Sep 21
PHIPhiladelphia Flyers2WSHWashington Capitals5
The verdict · stolen

The Capitals stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 0.00–0.00 and won anyway.

PHI 2 · WSH 5
Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 28, 3:28 PMxG: heuristicRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Capitals rolled past the Flyers 5-2 despite losing the xG battle 0.00–0.00. The Flyers controlled 100% of expected goals at 5v5 — this was a heist.

The numbers behind the result. The Capitals held 0% of shot attempts (0–0 on goal). Expected goals finished 0.00–0.00 (0–100% split), and high-danger chances went 0–0.

Variance watch. The Capitals overperformed their xG by 5.00 goals; the Flyers overperformed theirs by 2.00.

Turning point. Jonny Brodzinski's shot (P3, 09:45).

The goals

  • PHI 1–0, 02:42 of the first on the power play. J. Studnicka, shot, past C. Lindgren. Assists: C. Knuble, J. Luchanko. Win probability moved 14 points.
  • WSH 1–1, 09:35 of the first on the power play. A. Protas, shot, past J. Woll. Assists: D. Strome, J. MacDonald. Win probability moved 16 points.
  • WSH 1–2, 19:18 of the first. R. Leonard, shot, past J. Woll. Assists: R. Chesley, J. Holl. Win probability moved 18 points.
  • PHI 2–2, 08:06 of the second. C. Knuble, shot, past C. Lindgren. Assists: O. Bonk, H. McDonald. Win probability moved 20 points.
  • WSH 2–3, 18:17 of the second. D. Strome, shot, past J. Woll. Assists: J. Kyrou, R. Chesley. Win probability moved 24 points.
  • WSH 2–4, 01:57 of the third. J. Brodzinski, shot, past C. Bjarnason. Assists: E. Frank, R. Chesley. Win probability moved 14 points.
  • WSH 2–5, 09:45 of the third shorthanded. J. Brodzinski, shot, past C. Bjarnason. Assists: M. Fehérváry, T. Niederbach.

Goaltending

Storylines

  • WSH won despite being outplayed by xG (0%). Goaltending or finishing carried them.

Final: PHI 2 – WSH 5

Data: NHL play-by-play and shift charts, Backcheck xG model

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Preseason · Sep 21
PHI
2
WSH
5

Capitals pull away from the Flyers

Chances 0.0 – 0.0Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Capitals took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
PHI
0.00
WSH
0.00
100% of the chances0%

The board read PHI 2, WSH 5. The chances read PHI 0.0, WSH 0.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
WSH
+5.0
goals above expected
WSH0.00 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored
PHI0.00 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

The Capitals scored 5.0 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
The swing
+24
win-probability points
53% → 77% for WSH
WSH 100%the game, start to finish
PHI 100%P1 · P2 · P3
WSHP2 18:17

D. Strome makes it 2–3.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 02:42PHIJ. StudnickaPP1–0
  2. P1 09:35WSHA. ProtasPP1–1
  3. P1 19:18WSHR. Leonard1–2
  4. P2 08:06PHIC. Knuble2–2
  5. P2 18:17WSHD. Strome2–3
  6. P3 01:57WSHJ. Brodzinski2–4
  7. P3 09:45WSHJ. BrodzinskiSH2–5
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
PHI
2 shots
2
Final
7 shots
WSH
5 shots
5
PHI attackWSH attack
PHI WSH Goal
2
shots · 2 in
5
shots · 5 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Best skater on the ice
A+
WSH
R. Chesley
D · impact 1.80
0:00
Ice time
0–3
G – A
0.00
Own xG
Impact · top 4
R. Chesley1.8A+
D. Strome1.6A+
C. Knuble1.5A+
J. Brodzinski1.5A
Report card
PHIWSH
Special teamsB-B-
DisciplineA+F
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why WSH won
  1. 01Power play cashed in
  2. 02R. Chesley led the way
  3. 03The moment it turned
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Capitals pull away from the Flyers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 10 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 1–2
  1. 02:42PHIJ. Studnickapower play(C. Knuble, J. Luchanko)1–0

    Shot, past C. Lindgren. Win probability moved 14 points.

  2. 09:35WSHA. Protaspower play(D. Strome, J. MacDonald)1–1

    Shot, past J. Woll. Win probability moved 16 points.

  3. 19:18WSHR. Leonard(R. Chesley, J. Holl)1–2

    Shot, past J. Woll. Win probability moved 18 points.

2ndshots 1–1
  1. 08:06PHIC. Knuble(O. Bonk, H. McDonald)2–2

    Shot, past C. Lindgren. Win probability moved 20 points.

  2. 18:17WSHD. Strome(J. Kyrou, R. Chesley)2–3

    Shot, past J. Woll. Win probability moved 24 points.

3rdshots 0–2
  1. 01:57WSHJ. Brodzinski(E. Frank, R. Chesley)2–4

    Shot, past C. Bjarnason. Win probability moved 14 points.

  2. 09:45WSHJ. Brodzinskishorthanded(M. Fehérváry, T. Niederbach)2–5

    Shot, past C. Bjarnason.

score reads PHI–WSH

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
0.00
WSH chances
Goals their shots were worth
+5.0
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
Split by club

Who controlled the game

0.00Expected goals0.00
PHI 100% of the chance quality
0Shots on goal0
0High-danger chances0
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
PHI
2 G · 0.00 xG · +2.0
WSH
5 G · 0.00 xG · +5.0
0123456

PHI finished +2.0 against expected, WSH +5.0.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: R. Chesley (WSH), 0:00 of ice, 0-3.

PHI18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
C. KnubleR0:001-1—A+
J. StudnickaC0:001-0—A
O. BonkD0:000-1—B
J. LuchankoC0:000-1—B
H. McDonaldD0:000-1—C
D.JiricekD0:000-0—C
P. MartoneR0:000-0—C
M. GardC0:000-0—C
A. BumpL0:000-0—C
C. GrundstromR0:000-0—D
D. BarkeyC0:000-0—D
Z. Aston-ReeseL0:000-0—D
T. MurchisonD0:000-0—D
H. GransD0:000-0—D
R. ThompsonC0:000-0—D
S. BenoitD0:000-0—F
N. PowellR0:000-0—F
G. WilsonL0:000-0—F
WSH18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
R. ChesleyD0:000-3—A+
D. StromeC0:001-1—A+
J. BrodzinskiC0:002-0—A
R. LeonardR0:001-0—A
E. FrankR0:000-1—A
A. ProtasL0:001-0—A
J. HollD0:000-1—B
J. KyrouR0:000-1—B
M. FehérváryD0:000-1—B
J. MacDonaldD0:000-1—B
T. NiederbachC0:000-1—B
B. TrineyevR0:000-0—C
I. MiroshnichenkoL0:000-0—C
J. DunneC0:000-0—C
T. LiljegrenD0:000-0—D
I. ProtasL0:000-0—D
D. McIlrathD0:000-0—F
A. CristallL0:000-0—F

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, PHI: N. Seeler, S. Couturier, R. Ristolainen, T. Sanheim, C. Dvorak, D. Vladar and 20 more. Scratched, WSH: A. Ovechkin, B. Jenner, T. Wilson, A. Tuch, L. Belpedio, A. Beauvillier and 22 more. Referees Jake Brenk and Liam Maaskant; linesmen CJ Murray and Chris Martenet.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F
DimensionPHIWSH
Special teams
▸Basis

PHI 1-for-3 on the power play (33%; league ≈21%) with 0.00 PP xG.

WSH 1-for-3 on the power play (33%; league ≈21%) with 0.00 PP xG.

B-
81
B-
81
Discipline
▸Basis

PHI Took 4 penalties for 11 PIM vs 5 for 24 on the other side.

WSH Took 5 penalties for 24 PIM vs 4 for 11 on the other side.

A+
100
F
42
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
What the model flagged
WARNINGWSH

Paraded to the penalty box

Took 5 penalties for 24 minutes (opponent: 4 for 11).

Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.

STRENGTHWSH

R. Chesley led the way

3A — the game's first star.

STRENGTHPHI

Won the discipline battle

Just 4 penalties for 11 minutes vs 5 for 24 on the other side.

TACTICALWSH

The moment it turned

Jonny Brodzinski's shot in P3 swung the game.

STRENGTHWSH

Power play cashed in

1-for-3 on the power play (33%) on 0.00 PP xG.

STRENGTHPHI

Power play cashed in

1-for-3 on the power play (33%) on 0.00 PP xG.

7 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
PHI
2 shots
2
Final
7 shots
WSH
5 shots
5
PHI attackWSH attack
PHI WSH Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — PHI left, WSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
R. Chesley
#41 · D · WSH
0 G · 3 A · 0 SOG · +2
C. Knuble
#54 · R · PHI
1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · +1
D. Strome
#17 · C · WSH
1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · +2
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Mon, Sep 21
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The rates below are last season's; this exhibition will not count toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 22, 3:15 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 3.2-3.2 goal margin with the Capitals at 50% win probability. This is as close to a pick'em as you'll find—a game where neither team has the edge in the underlying numbers.

Philadelphia enters slightly ahead in expected goals (52.1% xG%) but trails in possession (47.6% Corsi%). Washington is the inverse: better in shots generated (49.5% Corsi%) but below the neutral in quality (49.6% xG%). The Capitals, however, are running hot at 1.018 PDO, suggesting some regression is coming; the Flyers sit at 1.008, which is closer to sustainable.

The matchup tilts on Logan Thompson. The Capitals goaltender has posted a +33.8 GSAx over 58 games with a 0.912 save percentage—a wall that lowers Washington's effective deficit in shot quality. Thompson's performance is the reason the Capitals remain competitive despite slightly trailing in xG%.

Philadelphia's test comes against Anthony Beauvillier, who carries 14 goals on a 0.89 xG/60 pace with two high-danger goals and a 10.4% shooting rate. Beauvillier is the Capitals' best offensive weapon—the ace Washington leans on when it needs a goal. Flyers' success hinges on neutralizing him.

For Washington, Owen Tippett is the countervailing threat. The Flyers' wing has 19 goals at 0.88 xG/60 with two high-danger markers and 12.1% shooting—nearly identical to Beauvillier's profile. Tippett's emergence is why Philadelphia hasn't sunk despite their possession deficit.

Below the headline matchups, depth matters. Christian Dvorak has crafted 12 goals and 21 assists with three high-danger tallies and an 11.2% shooting rate; he's driving offense but represents a defensive liability. Aliaksei Protas, Washington's depth winger, owns 17 goals and 19 assists with five high-danger goals and a 13.5% shot—elite volume that compounds Flyers' depth penalty.

The Capitals' PDO edge suggests they've caught some breaks; the Flyers are roughly where they should be. In a game this close, their offsetting profiles are nearly balanced. Variance rules, and Thompson's 0.912 save percentage becomes the deciding factor.

Season rates in this preview are from 2025-26 — this season's sample isn't live yet.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

WSH 50%
50%
WSH
Model favorite
50%
50%
PHI50WSH

WSH by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score PHI 3.2–3.2 WSH; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
PHI← edge
edge →WSH
52.1%49.6%
47.6%49.5%
3.053.23
2.803.29
2.933.18
2.912.90
1.0081.018

WSH holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.008 vs 1.018) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 0–1
PHI
0-0-0
+0 GD · 0d rest
WSH
0-0-1
-1 GD · 1d rest
1.008
PHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.018
WSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

STRENGTHWSH

Logan Thompson has been a season-long wall

Logan Thompson: +33.8 GSAx over 58 games (0.912 SV%).

WARNINGWSH

L. Thompson on a back-to-back

L. Thompson projects to start on 1 day of rest — watch for a backup start or tired legs.

Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.

TACTICALWSH

Shutdown Assignment: Capitals

Key matchup: Neutralize Owen Tippett (19G, 0.88 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

Key matchup: Neutralize Owen Tippett (19G, 0.88 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

TACTICALPHI

Shutdown Assignment: Flyers

Key matchup: Neutralize Anthony Beauvillier (14G, 0.89 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

Key matchup: Neutralize Anthony Beauvillier (14G, 0.89 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

Regression watch
  • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
  • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
PHI
Expected in goal
—
no game on file

No completed game on file for this club yet.

WSH
Expected in goal
L. Thompson
back-to-back.933 last start
Backup Logan Thompson · +33.8 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
PHI
Owen Tippett19G 18A
0.88 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.1% sh
Christian Dvorak12G 21A
0.81 xG/60 · 3 HD · 11.2% sh
WSH
Alex Ovechkin19G 17A
0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh
Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A
0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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