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← Fri, Sep 25 · the slate
Breakdown · BOS at WSH · Preseason

Capitals edge the Bruins in overtime

Final / OTFri, Sep 25
BOSBoston Bruins2WSHWashington Capitals3
The verdict · earned

The Capitals earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

BOS 2 · WSH 3
Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 26, 1:25 PMxG: xgboost-0.765Raw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Capitals edged the Bruins 3-2 in overtime in a game the underlying numbers called close to even — expected goals split 4.56–4.06, a slight edge to the Capitals.

The numbers behind the result. The Capitals held 61% of shot attempts (35–22 on goal). Expected goals finished 4.56–4.06 (53–47% split), and high-danger chances went 7–9.

Variance watch. The Capitals underperformed their xG by 1.56 goals; the Bruins underperformed theirs by 2.06.

Turning point. Jordan Kyrou's snap shot from the top of the circles, at 00:11 of overtime.

The goals

  • WSH 0–1, 18:04 of the first on the power play. D. Strome, wrist shot from 3 feet, a 51% chance by the model (a rebound), past J. Swayman. Assists: T. Wilson, P. Dubois. 1 second after a WSH missed shot by D. Strome. Win probability moved 17 points.
  • WSH 0–2, 01:39 of the second on the power play. T. Wilson, backhander from 6 feet, a 30% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Swayman. Assists: P. Dubois, D. Strome. Win probability moved 13 points.
  • BOS 1–2, 03:40 of the third. M. Geekie, snap shot from 10 feet, a 32% chance by the model, past L. Thompson. Assists: P. Zacha, C. Clifton. 6 seconds after a BOS shot by C. Clifton. Win probability moved 14 points.
  • BOS 2–2, 05:56 of the third on the power play. D. Pastrnak, snap shot from 29 feet, an 11% chance by the model, past L. Thompson. Assists: J. Peterka, P. Zacha. 9 seconds after a BOS missed shot by D. Pastrnak. Win probability moved 28 points.
  • WSH 2–3, 00:11 of overtime on the power play. J. Kyrou, snap shot from 40 feet, a 6% chance by the model (off the rush), past J. Swayman. Assists: J. Chychrun. Win probability moved 50 points.

Goaltending

  • J. Swayman (BOS): 32/35 saves, 0.914 SV% (+1.56 vs expected)
  • L. Thompson (WSH): 20/22 saves, 0.909 SV% (+2.06 vs expected)

Storylines

  • WSH had the shot volume but the chances weren't dangerous.
  • J. Swayman (BOS) stopped 1.6 goals above expected.
  • Open game — 16 high-danger chances combined (WSH 7, BOS 9).
  • WSH was lethal off the rush — 2 goals on 32 rush chances.
  • WSH created 4 rebound opportunities (1 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
  • WSH underperformed xG by 1.6 — wasted quality chances.
  • BOS underperformed xG by 2.1 — wasted quality chances.
  • J. Swayman (BOS) saved 1.6 goals above expected — stole the show.
  • L. Thompson (WSH) saved 2.1 goals above expected — stole the show.
  • WSH power play was dominant — 3 PPG on 19 PP shots (2.36 xG).

Final: BOS 2 – WSH 3 (OT)

Data: NHL play-by-play and shift charts, Backcheck xG model

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · OT · Preseason · Sep 25
BOS
2
WSH
3

Capitals edge the Bruins in overtime

Chances 4.1 – 4.6Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Capitals earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
BOS
4.06
WSH
4.56
47% of the chances53%

The board read BOS 2, WSH 3. The chances read BOS 4.1, WSH 4.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
WSH
−1.6
goals above expected
WSH4.56 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
BOS4.06 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

The Bruins left 2.1 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
The swing
+50
win-probability points
50% → 100% for WSH
WSH 100%the game, start to finish
BOS 100%P1 · P2 · P3
WSHOT 00:11 · PP

J. Kyrou makes it 2–3.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 18:04WSHD. StromePP51%0–1
  2. P2 01:39WSHT. WilsonPP30%0–2
  3. P3 03:40BOSM. Geekie32%1–2
  4. P3 05:56BOSD. PastrnakPP11%2–2
  5. OT 00:11WSHJ. KyrouPP6%2–3
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
BOS
38 shots
2
Final
89 shots
WSH
51 shots
3
BOS attackWSH attack
BOS WSH Goal
38
shots · 2 in
51
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
BOSWSH
1 / 9
1.91 xG
High danger
2 / 7
1.83 xG
1 / 20
2.00 xG
Medium
1 / 24
2.44 xG
0 / 21
0.14 xG
Low
0 / 33
0.29 xG

The Capitals buried 2 of 7 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
L. Thompson
+2.1
WSH · 20/22 · 59:53
Best save · a 22% chance, snap from 9 ft · P3 04:21
A
J. Swayman
+1.6
BOS · 32/35 · 60:11
Best save · a 22% chance, snap from 10 ft · P3 02:56
Best skater on the ice
A+
WSH
T. Wilson
R · impact 2.49
18:07
Ice time
1–1
G – A
0.96
Own xG
66%
xG share
Impact · top 4
T. Wilson2.5A+
D. Strome2.4A+
P. Zacha2.1A+
J. Peterka2.2A
Report card
BOSWSH
OffenseA+A+
DefenseFF
TransitionC+C
Special teamsAA+
GoaltendingA-A
DisciplineCC
LuckC-C+
Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown
Why it went the way it went
Why WSH won
  1. 01L. Thompson stole it
  2. 02Dangerous off the rush
  3. 03Power play cashed in
Why BOS lost
  1. 01Rush defense leaked all night
  2. 02Cold finishing night
  3. 03Allowed 4.56 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 7 high-danger shots (1.83 xG) and 32 rush shots (3.16 xG).
Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Capitals edge the Bruins in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 12 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 7–11
  1. 18:04WSHD. Stromepower play(T. Wilson, P. Dubois)0–1

    Wrist shot from 3 feet, a 51% chance (a rebound), past J. Swayman. 1s after a WSH miss by D. Strome. Win probability moved 17 points.On the ice: B. Jenner, A. Beauvillier, T. Liljegren, M. Fehérváry, J. Sourdif · against H. Lindholm, P. Zacha, W. Borgen, M. Geekie, C. Mittelstadt

2ndshots 5–10
  1. 01:39WSHT. Wilsonpower play(P. Dubois, D. Strome)0–2

    Backhander from 6 feet, a 30% chance (off the rush), past J. Swayman. Win probability moved 13 points.On the ice: B. Jenner, T. Liljegren, M. Fehérváry, A. Protas, J. Sourdif · against C. Clifton, P. Zacha, M. Geekie, C. Mittelstadt, M. Lohrei

3rdshots 10–13
  1. 03:40BOSM. Geekie(P. Zacha, C. Clifton)1–2

    Snap shot from 10 feet, a 32% chance, past L. Thompson. 6s after a BOS shot by C. Clifton. Win probability moved 14 points.On the ice: H. Lindholm, E. Lindholm, D. Pastrnak, W. Borgen, J. Peterka · against T. Wilson, A. Tuch, M. Roy, J. Chychrun, P. Dubois

  2. 05:56BOSD. Pastrnakpower play(J. Peterka, P. Zacha)2–2

    Snap shot from 29 feet, an 11% chance, past L. Thompson. 9s after a BOS miss by D. Pastrnak. Win probability moved 28 points.On the ice: C. Clifton, N. Zadorov, T. Jeannot, M. Kastelic, D. Locmelis · against D. Strome, J. Kyrou, V. Desharnais, R. Leonard, C. Hutson

OTshots 0–1
  1. 00:11WSHJ. Kyroupower play(J. Chychrun)2–3

    Snap shot from 40 feet, a 6% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past J. Swayman. Win probability moved 50 points.

score reads BOS–WSH

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
4.56
WSH chances
Goals their shots were worth
−1.6
Finishing
Goals below what those chances were worth
1.007
WSH puck luck
About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
56.1%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.06Expected goals4.56
WSH 53% of the chance quality
22Shots on goal35
9High-danger chances7
50All attempts (Corsi)64
Adjusted for score: BOS 47% · WSH 53%
Faceoffs · WSH won43%off33%neu55%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
BOS1 / 9 · 1.91 xG
WSH2 / 7 · 1.83 xG
Medium dangermid-range
BOS1 / 20 · 2.00 xG
WSH1 / 24 · 2.44 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
BOS0 / 21 · 0.14 xG
WSH0 / 33 · 0.29 xG

WSH went 1-for-24 from medium danger on 2.44 expected goals — 1.4 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
BOS
2 G · 4.06 xG · -2.1
WSH
3 G · 4.56 xG · -1.6
012345

BOS finished -2.1 against expected, WSH -1.6.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
BOS
SNAP2/23
SLAP0/5
BACKHAND0/3
WRIST0/1
TIP IN0/5
DEFLECTED0/1
OTHER0/12
WSH
SNAP1/30
SLAP0/6
BACKHAND1/6
WRIST1/6
TIP IN0/2
DEFLECTED0/1
OTHER0/13
BOS
WSH
Off the rush
0 G on 29
3.49 xG
2 G on 32
3.16 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 0
0.00 xG
1 G on 4
0.89 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: BOS went 2-for-23, WSH 1-for-30. WSH scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
J. Swayman
BOS · 32/35 · .914
started · 60:11 · OT loss
+1.6
saved above expected
A
the night
Attempts faced
51
Avg chance faced
8.9%
Stopped vs expected
0.941 vs 0.911
Rebounds allowed
4 · 1 scored on
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/71.8-0.2
Medium1/242.4+1.4
Low0/200.3+0.3
Shorthanded3/172.4-0.6
Tips & deflections0/30.2+0.2
The save
22% chance stopped, a snap from 10 ft · P3 02:56
The one to have back
6% chance went in, a snap from 40 ft · P4 00:11

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

L. Thompson
WSH · 20/22 · .909
started · 59:53 · win
+2.1
saved above expected
A
the night
Attempts faced
38
Avg chance faced
10.7%
Stopped vs expected
0.947 vs 0.893
Rebounds allowed
0
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/91.9+0.9
Medium1/202.0+1.0
Low0/90.1+0.1
Shorthanded1/81.0+0.0
Tips & deflections0/60.4+0.4
The save
22% chance stopped, a snap from 9 ft · P3 04:21
The one to have back
11% chance went in, a snap from 29 ft · P3 05:56

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: T. Wilson (WSH), 18:07 of ice, 1-1, 66% of the expected goals while he was out.

BOS18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
P. ZachaC16:520-262A+
J. PeterkaR18:410-184A
D. PastrnakR19:311-084A
M. GeekieC14:551-059A
H. LindholmD21:040-067B
E. LindholmC17:050-046B
C. CliftonD21:020-146B
D. LocmelisC11:380-041C
W. BorgenD21:120-046D
J. HagensC13:550-035D
N. ZadorovD19:110-048D
C. MittelstadtC14:200-045D
M. KastelicC11:380-028D
T. JeannotL11:020-023F
F. MintenC18:270-028F
M. LohreiD16:560-035F
M. KhusnutdinovC12:550-025F
J. AspirotD15:190-014F
WSH18 skaters
SkaterTOIG-AxG%Grade
T. WilsonR18:071-166A+
D. StromeC16:581-180A+
P. DuboisC16:170-270A
J. ChychrunD24:210-162A
J. KyrouR16:541-048B
R. LeonardR14:470-076B
T. LiljegrenD17:110-058B
A. BeauvillierR12:560-062B
A. TuchR14:540-050C
E. FrankR11:300-050C
B. JennerC14:120-048C
C. HutsonD16:550-048C
I. ProtasL14:530-050C
M. FehérváryD16:550-050C
A. ProtasL15:170-038C
J. SourdifC13:010-043D
V. DesharnaisD18:020-031D
M. RoyD22:190-034D

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, BOS: S. Kuraly, B. Gaunce, C. McAvoy, M. Eyssimont, H. Jokiharju, J. Patera and 45 more. Scratched, WSH: A. Ovechkin, J. Holl, D. McIlrath, C. Petersen, J. Brodzinski, L. Belpedio and 34 more. Referees Jon McIsaac and Frederick L'Ecuyer; linesmen Libor Suchanek and Onni Hautamäki.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F
DimensionBOSWSH
Offense
▸Basis

BOS Created 4.06 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 9 high-danger shots (1.91 xG) and 29 rush shots (3.49 xG).

WSH Created 4.56 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 7 high-danger shots (1.83 xG) and 32 rush shots (3.16 xG).

A+
100
A+
100
Defense
▸Basis

BOS Allowed 4.56 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 7 high-danger shots (1.83 xG) and 32 rush shots (3.16 xG).

WSH Allowed 4.06 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 9 high-danger shots (1.91 xG) and 29 rush shots (3.49 xG).

F
44
F
47
Transition
▸Basis

BOS Rush shots 29–32, rush xG 3.49–3.16 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

WSH Rush shots 32–29, rush xG 3.16–3.49 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

C+
77
C
73
Special teams
▸Basis

BOS 1-for-3 on the power play (33%; league ≈21%) with 1.03 PP xG.

WSH 3-for-3 on the power play (100%; league ≈21%) with 2.36 PP xG.

A
95
A+
100
Goaltending
▸Basis

BOS +1.56 goals saved above expected on 35 shots against.

WSH +2.06 goals saved above expected on 22 shots against.

A-
91
A
96
Discipline
▸Basis

BOS Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.

WSH Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.

C
75
C
75
Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

BOS Finishing -2.06 goals vs xG plus +1.56 GSAx of save luck = -0.50 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

WSH Finishing -1.56 goals vs xG plus +2.06 GSAx of save luck = +0.50 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

C-
71
C+
79
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
What the model flagged
STRENGTHWSH

L. Thompson stole it

L. Thompson stopped 20 of 22 (0.909) — +2.06 goals saved above expected in a 1-goal game.

WARNINGBOS

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 32 rush shots worth 3.16 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHWSH

Dangerous off the rush

2 goals on 32 rush shots worth 3.16 xG.

WARNINGWSH

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 29 rush shots worth 3.49 xG (0 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

STRENGTHWSH

Power play cashed in

3-for-3 on the power play (100%) on 2.36 PP xG.

STRENGTHBOS

Dangerous off the rush

0 goals on 29 rush shots worth 3.49 xG.

89 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
BOS
38 shots
2
Final
89 shots
WSH
51 shots
3
BOS attackWSH attack
BOS WSH Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — BOS left, WSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
T. Wilson
#43 · R · WSH
1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 18:07 on ice
D. Strome
#17 · C · WSH
1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 16:58 on ice
P. Zacha
#18 · C · BOS
0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 16:52 on ice · +1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
Keep going

Where to next

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