Breakdown · NYR at NYI · Preseason

Rangers run the Islanders off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalFri, Sep 25

NYRNew York Rangers6 NYINew York Islanders1

The verdict · earned

The Rangers earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NYR 6 · NYI 1

Preseason · exhibition

Split squads and prospects, not the club that will take the ice in October. The shots and grades below describe this game only: nothing here counts toward season records, form, rankings or player numbers.

◆ By the ModelSep 26, 1:27 PMxG: xgboost-0.765Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Rangers demolished the Islanders 6-1. They controlled the game from the first shift and finished with ruthless efficiency, scoring on the rush and the power play.

New York scored 2.85 more goals than the underlying play suggested they would—an unusually wide margin. Rangers produced 3.15 expected goals at 5v5 while holding the Islanders to 1.94, a 62-38 split. S. Varlamov saved 21 of 27 shots but finished nearly 3 goals worse than expected. I. Shesterkin made 15 saves on 16 and finished nearly 1 goal better than expected.

The Rangers were lethal on the rush. O. Bjorkstrand opened the scoring with a wrist shot from 9 feet. J. Miller made it 2–0 on the power play with a snap shot from 10 feet. T. Kartye, G. Perreault, and M. Zibanejad all capitalized on transition chances. W. Cuylle converted a rebound.

New York's power play was dominant—2 goals on 8 shots. The Islanders held just 37% of shot attempts (16 to 27) and scored once, on P. Engvall's snap shot at 11:22 of the third, a 6% chance from 34 feet.

Dominance in every direction.

The goals

NYR 1–0, 03:48 of the first. O. Bjorkstrand, wrist shot from 9 feet, a 19% chance by the model, past S. Varlamov. Assists: P. Dorofeyev, S. Durzi. 8 seconds after a NYR shot by O. Bjorkstrand. Win probability moved 15 points.
NYR 2–0, 04:43 of the first on the power play. J. Miller, snap shot from 10 feet, a 19% chance by the model, past S. Varlamov. Assists: M. Zibanejad, A. Fox. Win probability moved 13 points.
NYR 3–0, 03:27 of the second. T. Kartye, snap shot from 27 feet, a 4% chance by the model (off the rush), past S. Varlamov. Assists: A. Fox, M. Rempe. Win probability moved 9 points.
NYR 4–0, 13:12 of the second. G. Perreault, tip-in from 15 feet, a 6% chance by the model (off the rush), past S. Varlamov. Assists: V. Gavrikov, J. Miller.
NYR 5–0, 17:04 of the second. W. Cuylle, backhander from 6 feet, a 14% chance by the model (a rebound), past S. Varlamov. Assists: N. Laba, M. Pettersson. 3 seconds after a NYR shot by N. Laba.
NYR 6–0, 01:23 of the third on the power play. M. Zibanejad, wrist shot from 12 feet, a 14% chance by the model (off the rush), past S. Varlamov. Assists: A. Fox, P. Dorofeyev.
NYI 6–1, 11:22 of the third. P. Engvall, snap shot from 34 feet, a 6% chance by the model (off the rush), past I. Shesterkin. Assists: C. Eiserman, L. Foudy.

What the numbers can't tell you. Whether the finishing was luck or skill, why the benches were run the way they were, who was hurt, and anything said in the room. That is the beat's story, and it is worth reading.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Preseason · Sep 25

NYR

NYI

Rangers run the Islanders off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 3.1 – 1.9Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Rangers earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

NYR

3.15

NYI

1.94

62% of the chances38%

The board read NYR 6, NYI 1. The chances read NYR 3.1, NYI 1.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NYR

+2.9

goals above expected

NYR3.15 expected · 6 scored

Expected

Scored

NYI1.94 expected · 1 scored

Expected

Scored

The Rangers scored 2.9 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

The swing

+15

win-probability points

46% → 61% for NYR

NYI 100%the game, start to finish

NYR 100%P1 · P2 · P3

NYRP1 03:48

O. Bjorkstrand makes it 1–0.

In-game win model · fitted on 5,248 games

Every goal, in order

P1 03:48NYRO. Bjorkstrand19%1–0
P1 04:43NYRJ. MillerPP19%2–0
P2 03:27NYRT. Kartye4%3–0
P2 13:12NYRG. Perreault6%4–0
P2 17:04NYRW. Cuylle14%5–0
P3 01:23NYRM. ZibanejadPP14%6–0
P3 11:22NYIP. Engvall6%6–1

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NYR

36 shots

Final

57 shots

NYI

21 shots

NYR NYI GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 6 in

shots · 1 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NYRNYI

2 / 6

1.17 xG

High danger

0 / 6

1.25 xG

3 / 17

1.72 xG

Medium

1 / 5

0.55 xG

1 / 34

0.26 xG

Low

0 / 18

0.13 xG

The Islanders went 0 for 6 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

B+

I. Shesterkin

+0.9

NYR · 15/16 · 59:54

Best save · a 22% chance, snap from 20 ft · P2 04:34

S. Varlamov

−2.9

NYI · 21/27 · 60:00

Best save · a 23% chance, snap from 7 ft · P2 16:34

Best skater on the ice

A+

NYR

A. Fox

D · impact 2.68

17:53

Ice time

0–3

G – A

0.18

Own xG

74%

xG share

Impact · top 4

A. Fox2.7A+

M. Zibanejad1.7A+

W. Cuylle1.6A+

J. Miller1.5A

Report card

NYRNYI

OffenseBC-

DefenseC+D

TransitionB+D

Special teamsA+F

GoaltendingBF

DisciplineA+F

LuckA+F

Seven dimensions, A+ to F · basis on the breakdown

Why it went the way it went

Why NYR won

01Dangerous off the rush
02Won on the merits
03Power play cashed in

Why NYI lost

01S. Varlamov couldn't make the stop
02Rush defense leaked all night
03Paraded to the penalty box

Our storyline model · reasoning on the breakdown

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Rangers run the Islanders off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 12 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 10–5

03:48NYRO. Bjorkstrand(P. Dorofeyev, S. Durzi)1–0
Wrist shot from 9 feet, a 19% chance, past S. Varlamov. 8s after a NYR shot by O. Bjorkstrand. Win probability moved 15 points.On the ice: E. Tolvanen, B. Schneider, W. Cuylle, N. Laba, A. Smits · against L. Foudy, M. Chaffee, M. Kessel, I. George, D. Prokhorov
04:43NYRJ. Millerpower play(M. Zibanejad, A. Fox)2–0
Snap shot from 10 feet, a 19% chance, past S. Varlamov. Win probability moved 13 points.On the ice: V. Gavrikov, A. Fox, J. Veleno, T. Kartye, M. Rempe · against T. DeAngelo, M. Highmore, M. Luff, A. Jefferies, K. Aitcheson

2ndshots 11–5

03:27NYRT. Kartye(A. Fox, M. Rempe)3–0
Snap shot from 27 feet, a 4% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past S. Varlamov. Win probability moved 9 points.On the ice: M. Zibanejad, M. Pettersson, S. Durzi, A. Lafrenière, G. Perreault · against R. Pulock, M. Highmore, M. Luff, A. Jefferies, I. George
13:12NYRG. Perreault(V. Gavrikov, J. Miller)4–0
Tip-in from 15 feet, a 6% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past S. Varlamov.On the ice: J. Miller, O. Bjorkstrand, V. Gavrikov, A. Fox, P. Dorofeyev · against T. DeAngelo, L. Foudy, D. Kuefler, K. Aitcheson, D. Prokhorov
17:04NYRW. Cuylle(N. Laba, M. Pettersson)5–0
Backhander from 6 feet, a 14% chance (a rebound), past S. Varlamov. 3s after a NYR shot by N. Laba.On the ice: M. Pettersson, E. Tolvanen, W. Cuylle, N. Laba, A. Smits · against T. DeAngelo, M. Highmore, M. Luff, A. Romanov, A. Jefferies

3rdshots 6–6

01:23NYRM. Zibanejadpower play(A. Fox, P. Dorofeyev)6–0
Wrist shot from 12 feet, a 14% chance (off the rush), past S. Varlamov.On the ice: M. Pettersson, E. Tolvanen, S. Durzi, W. Cuylle, N. Laba · against A. Duclair, T. DeAngelo, K. MacLean, E. Heineman, I. George
11:22NYIP. Engvall(C. Eiserman, L. Foudy)6–1
Snap shot from 34 feet, a 6% chance, a shot that rarely goes in (off the rush), past I. Shesterkin.On the ice: P. Engvall, L. Foudy, M. Kessel, C. Eiserman, K. Aitcheson · against M. Pettersson, E. Tolvanen, S. Durzi, W. Cuylle, N. Laba

score reads NYR–NYI

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.15

NYR chances

Goals their shots were worth

+2.9

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.071

NYR puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

66.3%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.15Expected goals1.94

NYR 62% of the chance quality

27Shots on goal16

6High-danger chances6

57All attempts (Corsi)29

Adjusted for score: NYR 59% · NYI 41%

Faceoffs · NYI won40%off53%neu53%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NYR2 / 6 · 1.17 xG

NYI0 / 6 · 1.25 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NYR3 / 17 · 1.72 xG

NYI1 / 5 · 0.55 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NYR1 / 34 · 0.26 xG

NYI0 / 18 · 0.13 xG

NYR went 3-for-17 from medium danger on 1.72 expected goals — 1.3 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NYR

6 G · 3.15 xG · +2.9

NYI

1 G · 1.94 xG · -0.9

01234567

NYR finished +2.9 against expected, NYI -0.9.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NYR

WRIST2/8

SNAP2/13

TIP IN1/8

BACKHAND1/3

SLAP0/4

BAT0/0

OTHER0/21

NYI

WRIST0/12

SNAP1/3

TIP IN0/1

BACKHAND0/3

SLAP0/1

BAT0/1

OTHER0/8

NYR

NYI

Off the rush

3 G on 21

2.31 xG

1 G on 13

1.55 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 2

0.15 xG

0 G on 3

0.35 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: NYR went 2-for-8, NYI 0-for-12. NYR scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

I. Shesterkin

NYR · 15/16 · .938

started · 59:54 · win

+0.9

saved above expected

B+

the night

Attempts faced: 21
Avg chance faced: 9.2%
Stopped vs expected: 0.952 vs 0.908
Rebounds allowed: 3

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/61.3+1.3

Medium1/50.6-0.5

Low0/100.1+0.1

Tips & deflections0/10.0+0.0

The save

22% chance stopped, a snap from 20 ft · P2 04:34

The one to have back

6% chance went in, a snap from 34 ft · P3 11:22

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

S. Varlamov

NYI · 21/27 · .778

started · 60:00 · loss

-2.9

saved above expected

the night

Attempts faced: 36
Avg chance faced: 8.8%
Stopped vs expected: 0.833 vs 0.912
Rebounds allowed: 2 · 1 scored on

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/61.2-0.8

Medium3/171.7-1.3

Low1/130.3-0.7

Shorthanded2/50.6-1.4

Tips & deflections1/80.5-0.6

The save

23% chance stopped, a snap from 7 ft · P2 16:34

The one to have back

4% chance went in, a snap from 27 ft · P2 03:27

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

Every skater who dressed

Who played

Rated on what they produced and how fast

Best skater on the ice by our rating: A. Fox (NYR), 17:53 of ice, 0-3, 74% of the expected goals while he was out.

NYR18 skaters

Skater	TOI	G-A	SOG	ixG	xG%	PD/PT	Impact	/60	Grade
A. FoxD	17:53	0-3	2	0.18	74	0/0	2.68	8.98	A+
M. ZibanejadC	14:57	1-1	1	0.33	48	0/0	1.72	6.89	A+
W. CuylleL	14:44	1-0	3	0.41	72	1/0	1.62	6.61	A+
J. MillerC	15:02	1-1	2	0.39	47	0/0	1.48	5.89	A
N. LabaC	14:29	0-1	2	0.16	94	0/1	1.32	5.48	A
T. KartyeL	17:02	1-0	2	0.05	94	1/0	1.34	4.72	A
P. DorofeyevR	16:04	0-2	2	0.38	47	0/1	1.30	4.87	A
V. GavrikovD	20:35	0-1	1	0.11	66	0/0	1.20	3.50	A
O. BjorkstrandR	13:05	1-0	4	0.33	42	0/0	1.01	4.65	B
M. RempeC	13:43	0-1	0	0.00	95	0/0	0.89	3.89	B
G. PerreaultR	12:51	1-0	1	0.13	41	0/0	0.76	3.54	B
S. DurziD	21:17	0-1	1	0.02	66	0/0	0.87	2.44	B
M. PetterssonD	22:14	0-1	0	0.00	70	0/0	0.87	2.35	B
E. TolvanenR	14:38	0-0	2	0.31	72	0/0	0.62	2.53	C
J. VelenoC	16:59	0-0	2	0.16	74	0/0	0.48	1.69	C
A. LafrenièreL	15:33	0-0	1	0.19	48	1/0	0.26	0.99	C
A. SmitsD	18:18	0-0	1	0.02	58	0/0	0.24	0.77	C
B. SchneiderD	16:42	0-0	0	0.00	40	3/2	0.09	0.30	D

NYI18 skaters

Skater	TOI	G-A	SOG	ixG	xG%	PD/PT	Impact	/60	Grade
P. EngvallL	19:07	1-0	2	0.08	59	0/0	1.02	3.20	B
C. EisermanL	15:07	0-1	1	0.03	53	0/0	0.80	3.19	B
M. ChaffeeR	14:54	0-0	2	0.42	68	0/1	0.41	1.67	C
L. FoudyC	17:29	0-1	0	0.00	30	1/0	0.32	1.10	C
M. KesselD	15:27	0-0	1	0.05	74	2/3	0.25	0.97	C
A. DuclairL	17:06	0-0	1	0.14	48	0/0	0.24	0.85	C
K. MacLeanC	17:13	0-0	1	0.22	49	0/0	0.23	0.79	D
D. ProkhorovR	14:16	0-0	3	0.33	34	0/0	0.07	0.29	D
A. RomanovD	20:24	0-0	1	0.01	35	0/0	0.04	0.11	D
E. HeinemanL	16:38	0-0	1	0.21	36	0/1	-0.05	-0.17	D
I. GeorgeD	17:32	0-0	1	0.10	37	0/0	-0.14	-0.46	D
M. LuffR	11:43	0-0	1	0.14	18	0/0	-0.16	-0.83	D
T. DeAngeloD	21:11	0-0	0	0.00	35	0/0	-0.23	-0.67	D
M. HighmoreC	9:41	0-0	0	0.20	27	0/0	-0.21	-1.31	F
K. AitchesonD	22:27	0-0	0	0.00	34	1/1	-0.30	-0.80	F
A. JefferiesL	10:58	0-0	0	0.00	18	0/0	-0.32	-1.75	F
D. KueflerL	15:03	0-0	1	0.01	10	0/0	-0.39	-1.56	F
R. PulockD	18:29	0-0	0	0.00	25	0/1	-0.51	-1.64	F

xG% = share of expected goals while on the ice · PD/PT = penalties drawn / taken · “in N min” = a per-60 rate far above the raw total. Impact = 0.75 G + 0.7 A1 + 0.55 A2 + 0.075 SOG + 0.05 BLK + 0.15 penalties drawn − 0.15 taken + 0.01 faceoff wins − 0.01 losses + 0.3 individual xG + 0.5 on-ice xG for − 0.5 on-ice xG against. Rating = 65% impact + 35% impact per 60, as a percentile among the skaters in this game.

Scratched, NYR: A. Blidh, G. Gawdin, T. Raddysh, M. Robertson, M. Del Gaizo, D. Garand and 29 more. Scratched, NYI: K. Palmieri, B. Schenn, C. Cizikas, O. Palat, J. Pageau, S. Mayfield and 36 more. Referees Francois St-Laurent and Austin Rook; linesmen Shandor Alphonso and Anthony Lapointe.

Graded against a league-average game

Report card

Seven dimensions · A+ to F

DimensionNYRNYI

Offense

▸Basis

NYR Created 3.15 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 6 high-danger shots (1.17 xG) and 21 rush shots (2.31 xG).

NYI Created 1.94 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 6 high-danger shots (1.25 xG) and 13 rush shots (1.55 xG).

C-

Defense

▸Basis

NYR Allowed 1.94 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 6 high-danger shots (1.25 xG) and 13 rush shots (1.55 xG).

NYI Allowed 3.15 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 6 high-danger shots (1.17 xG) and 21 rush shots (2.31 xG).

C+

Transition

▸Basis

NYR Rush shots 21–13, rush xG 2.31–1.55 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

NYI Rush shots 13–21, rush xG 1.55–2.31 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).

B+

Special teams

▸Basis

NYR 2-for-4 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 0.63 PP xG.

NYI 0-for-2 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.00 PP xG.

A+

100

Goaltending

▸Basis

NYR +0.94 goals saved above expected on 16 shots against.

NYI -2.85 goals saved above expected on 27 shots against.

Discipline

▸Basis

NYR Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 7 for 22 on the other side.

NYI Took 7 penalties for 22 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.

A+

100

Luck

Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral

▸Basis

NYR Finishing +2.85 goals vs xG plus +0.94 GSAx of save luck = +3.79 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

NYI Finishing -0.94 goals vs xG plus -2.85 GSAx of save luck = -3.79 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.

A+

100

Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately

What the model flagged

WARNINGNYI

S. Varlamov couldn't make the stop

S. Varlamov allowed 6 on 27 shots (0.778) — 2.85 goals worse than expected.

Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.

WARNINGNYI

Rush defense leaked all night

Gave up 21 rush shots worth 2.31 xG (3 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.

Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.

LUCKNYR

Ran hot in front of the net

Scored 6 on 3.15 xG — +2.85 above expected. Shooting luck like that regresses.

STRENGTHNYR

Dangerous off the rush

3 goals on 21 rush shots worth 2.31 xG.

WARNINGNYI

Paraded to the penalty box

Took 7 penalties for 22 minutes (opponent: 4 for 8).

Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.

LUCKNYI

Wasted the best looks

0-for-6 on high-danger chances worth 1.25 xG — that conversion rate won't stay at zero.

57 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NYR

36 shots

Final

57 shots

NYI

21 shots

NYR NYI GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NYR left, NYI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

A. Fox

#23 · D · NYR

0 G · 3 A · 2 SOG · 17:53 on ice · +2

P. Dorofeyev

#16 · R · NYR

0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 16:04 on ice · +1

J. Miller

#10 · C · NYR

1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 15:02 on ice · +2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

Keep going

Where to next

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