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Motion-blurred skater in a Washington Capitals sweater
← Sat, Apr 4 · the slate
Breakdown · BUF at WSH

Capitals pull away from the Sabres

FinalSat, Apr 4
BUFBuffalo Sabres2WSHWashington Capitals6
The verdict · coin flip

The Capitals won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

BUF 2 · WSH 6
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:18 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Expected goals said 3.88–3.90 — dead even — but Washington's 6–2 final scoreline told a different story. The underlying play was close. The execution wasn't.

Washington's dominance came from two places: goaltending and finishing. L. Thompson stopped 37 of 39 shots (0.949 save percentage), beating his expected mark by 1.90 goals. A. Lyon let in 2 of 5 (0.400 save percentage), falling 2.31 short. That four-goal swing between the pipes was the difference between a one-goal game and a blowout.

The Capitals overperformed their expected goals by 2.12, converting chances at an elite rate. Buffalo did the opposite — underperforming their xG by 1.90, unable to finish when it mattered. The Sabres created higher-quality looks than their shot total (28–39) suggested, converting just 0 of 5 high-danger chances. Washington converted 9 of those, a lopsided 9–5 edge.

Tom Wilson's backhander from the slot (third period, 8:55) was the turning point, pushing Washington clear when the game remained contested.

Washington was lethal on the rush, scoring 4 goals on 29 chances. Buffalo matched that rush-goal total (2 on 30 attempts), but couldn't replicate it enough to keep pace. The Capitals crashed the net effectively, generating 4 rebound opportunities and converting 2; Buffalo generated the same 4 rebounds and converted none.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Apr 4
BUF
2
WSH
6

Capitals pull away from the Sabres

Chances 3.9 – 3.9Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Capitals took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
BUF
3.90
WSH
3.88
50% of the chances50%

The board read BUF 2, WSH 6. The chances read BUF 3.9, WSH 3.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
WSH
+2.1
goals above expected
WSH3.88 expected · 6 scored
Expected
Scored
BUF3.90 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

The Capitals scored 2.1 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 03:15WSHJ. Chychrun0–1
  2. P1 03:35WSHD. Strome0–2
  3. P1 05:52WSHC. McMichael0–3
  4. P1 06:30BUFR. Dahlin1–3
  5. P1 12:15BUFB. Malenstyn2–3
  6. P2 06:06WSHA. Protas2–4
  7. P3 06:26WSHR. Leonard2–5
+1 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
BUF
48 shots
2
Final
93 shots
WSH
45 shots
6
BUF attackWSH attack
BUF WSH Goal
48
shots · 2 in
45
shots · 6 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
BUFWSH
0 / 5
1.16 xG
High danger
3 / 9
2.13 xG
2 / 21
2.23 xG
Medium
2 / 12
1.10 xG
0 / 35
0.51 xG
Low
1 / 34
0.65 xG

The Sabres went 0 for 5 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
L. Thompson
+1.9
WSH · 37/39
B+
A. Lyon
+0.9
BUF · 2/5
+1 more on the full breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Capitals pull away from the Sabres

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 13–11
  1. 03:15WSHJ. Chychrun(A. Ovechkin, P. Dubois)0–1
  2. 03:35WSHD. Strome(A. Protas, A. Ovechkin)0–2
  3. 05:52WSHC. McMichael(J. Chychrun, P. Dubois)0–3
  4. 06:30BUFR. Dahlin(J. Norris, A. Tuch)1–3
  5. 12:15BUFB. Malenstyn(J. Greenway, R. Dahlin)2–3
2ndshots 15–7
  1. 06:06WSHA. Protas2–4
3rdshots 11–10
  1. 06:26WSHR. Leonard(C. Hutson, J. Sourdif)2–5
  2. 08:55WSHT. Wilsonshorthanded(C. McMichael)2–6

score reads BUF–WSH

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
3.88
WSH chances
Goals their shots were worth
+2.1
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.076
WSH puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
47.4%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.90Expected goals3.88
BUF 50% of the chance quality
39Shots on goal28
5High-danger chances9
61All attempts (Corsi)55
Adjusted for score: BUF 59% · WSH 41%
Faceoffs · WSH won40%off67%neu39%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
BUF0 / 5 · 1.16 xG
WSH3 / 9 · 2.13 xG
Medium dangermid-range
BUF2 / 21 · 2.23 xG
WSH2 / 12 · 1.10 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
BUF0 / 35 · 0.51 xG
WSH1 / 34 · 0.65 xG

BUF went 0-for-5 from high danger on 1.16 expected goals — 1.2 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
BUF
2 G · 3.90 xG · -1.9
WSH
6 G · 3.88 xG · +2.1
01234567

BUF finished -1.9 against expected, WSH +2.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
BUF
SNAP2/25
SLAP0/8
TIP IN0/2
BACKHAND0/5
WRIST0/7
DEFLECTED0/1
OTHER0/13
WSH
SNAP4/32
SLAP0/1
TIP IN1/7
BACKHAND1/3
WRIST0/1
DEFLECTED0/1
OTHER0/10
BUF
WSH
Off the rush
2 G on 30
2.50 xG
4 G on 29
2.55 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 4
0.93 xG
2 G on 4
0.80 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: BUF went 2-for-25, WSH 4-for-32. WSH scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
A. Lyon
BUF · 2/5 · .400
+0.9
saved above expected
B+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger3/92.1-0.9
Medium2/121.1-0.9
Low1/340.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

C. Ellis
BUF · 20/23 · .870
+0.9
saved above expected
B+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger3/92.1-0.9
Medium2/121.1-0.9
Low1/340.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

L. Thompson
WSH · 37/39 · .949
+1.9
saved above expected
A
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/51.2+1.2
Medium2/212.2+0.2
Low0/350.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

93 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
BUF
48 shots
2
Final
93 shots
WSH
45 shots
6
BUF attackWSH attack
BUF WSH Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — BUF left, WSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
R. Dahlin
#26 · D · BUF
1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 22:28 on ice · +1
J. Chychrun
#6 · D · WSH
1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 19:40 on ice · +1
A. Ovechkin
#8 · L · WSH
0 G · 2 A · 4 SOG · 17:01 on ice · +1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Apr 4
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:16 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model has this pegged as precisely even: Capitals at 52% win probability, the projection running to 2.6–2.7 goals for Buffalo. Neither team possesses a decisive edge in the metrics that matter.

Both squads sit at identical 50.0% expected goals shares and 49.0% Corsi percentages at five-on-five. The separation is negligible. What matters instead is how close both are to regression. Buffalo's PDO stands at 1.020; Washington's at 1.018. Both are running hot enough that some regression is due, and whenever that happens, whoever gets unlucky first loses the cushion.

The forward matchup tilts slightly toward Buffalo. Jason Zucker is driving play at 1.07 xG/60 and has already banked 14 goals with 14 assists and six high-danger chances; he's shooting 15.1%, which is sustainable given his volume. Josh Doan sits just behind him at 1.01 xG/60 and has scored 15 times with 18 assists, though he's riding a softer 11.5% on only two high-danger goals—some of that outperformance may not stick.

Washington counters with Alex Ovechkin, who despite posting 19 goals and 17 assists is actually generating slightly less (0.97 xG/60). That gap between results and creation matters; Ovechkin is at 13.8%, which is elevated. Anthony Beauvillier (14G, 9A) checks in at 0.89 xG/60 and 10.4% shooting, meaning both Capitals scorers are overperforming their underlying volume.

The defensive concern cuts both ways. Buffalo has no high-danger goals and no rebound goals—that's not defensive excellence, it's either noise or genuine weakness in transition recovery. Jack Quinn is the noted defensive liability. Washington mirrors the pattern: zero high-danger goals, zero rebound goals, with Declan Chisholm identified as vulnerable. Both teams are leaning on goaltending to hold together a defensive picture that hasn't been stress-tested.

The edges cancel out. Washington's slight win-probability advantage reflects home ice and the recency of Ovechkin's goal total, but the models know those Capitals scorers are running hot. Buffalo has the steadier underlying advantage in shot creation, yet both teams are overdue for some PDO gravity.

This is as close as games get. The team that avoids the first regression stumble wins.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

WSH 52%
52%
WSH
Model favorite
48%
52%
BUF50WSH

WSH by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score BUF 2.6–2.7 WSH; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
BUF← edge
edge →WSH
50.0%50.0%
49.0%49.0%
2.552.62
2.552.62
2.352.18
1.901.79
1.0201.018

WSH holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.020 vs 1.018) says BUF has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
BUF
6-2-2
+5 GD · 2d rest
WSH
6-2-2
+2 GD · 2d rest
1.020
BUF PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.018
WSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch
  • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
  • The Sabres' PDO is 1.020 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
  • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
BUF
Expected in goal
U. Luukkonen
2 days rest.909 last start
Backup Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · +10.5 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

WSH
Expected in goal
L. Thompson
2 days rest.793 last start
Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
BUF
Jason Zucker14G 14A
1.07 xG/60 · 6 HD · 15.1% sh
Josh Doan15G 18A
1.01 xG/60 · 2 HD · 11.5% sh
WSH
Alex Ovechkin19G 17A
0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh
Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A
0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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