The Hurricanes earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Hurricanes won 4-3, but they should have won by more—they held 4.81 expected goals to the Islanders' 2.57, a 65–35 domination that I. Sorokin's goaltending nearly reversed. The Hurricanes controlled 71% of shot attempts (40–16) and dominated high-danger chances 8–4, yet left 0.81 goals on the table through underperformance. Sorokin finished +0.81 against his expected save percentage, an extraordinary margin that nearly stole the game.
The Islanders' limited offense was dangerous when it mattered. They generated higher-quality chances—0.080 xG per shot to the Hurricanes' 0.059—which meant their third line stayed lethal off the rush. They scored 3 goals on just 16 rush attempts, a conversion rate the Hurricanes couldn't match despite converting 3 of 35 attempts. S. Jarvis's two goals and K. Miller's two assists drove Carolina's dominance. M. Schaefer's assist on Anders Lee's slot tip-in was the Islanders' most dangerous sequence.
The underlying numbers told a clear story: a Hurricanes rout constrained entirely by Sorokin's overperformance.