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Motion-blurred skater in a Montreal Canadiens sweater
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Breakdown · MTL at NJD

Canadiens edge the Devils in a shootout

Final / OTSat, Apr 4
MTLMontreal Canadiens4NJDNew Jersey Devils3
The verdict · coin flip

The Canadiens won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

MTL 4 · NJD 3
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:20 AMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Montreal won 4–3 in a shootout despite New Jersey's control. The Devils held 57% of shot attempts (38–29 on goal) and generated five high-danger chances to Montreal's four—a dominance in possession that the scoreboard didn't reflect. Expected goals split 4.25–4.08 for Montreal, a near-even split masking the real problem: the Canadiens capitalized in regulation while New Jersey did not. Oliver Kapanen's shootout wrist shot from the high slot decided the contest.

New Jersey underperformed its expected goals by 1.08, evidence of inefficient finishing and Montreal's superior goaltending discipline. J. Dobes (MTL) stopped 1.1 goals above expected, posting a 0.921 SV% on 35 saves. J. Allen (NJD) also exceeded his projection at +1.25, but his 0.897 SV% on 26 saves couldn't overcome the deficit when the game reached overtime.

Both teams thrived in transition. New Jersey scored three goals on 34 rush attempts; Montreal matched that tally on 39 chances. Neither team capitalized on rebounds—each created three rebound opportunities and converted zero—indicating disciplined positional defense.

The Canadiens' advantage was efficiency. The Devils leave with the stronger underlying metrics but without points.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · SO · Apr 4
MTL
4
NJD
3

Canadiens edge the Devils in a shootout

Chances 4.3 – 4.1Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Canadiens took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
MTL
4.25
NJD
4.08
51% of the chances49%

The board read MTL 4, NJD 3. The chances read MTL 4.3, NJD 4.1.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
MTL
−0.3
goals above expected
MTL4.25 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
NJD4.08 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 15:58MTLJ. Struble1–0
  2. P2 08:12MTLI. DemidovPP2–0
  3. P2 09:28MTLL. Hutson3–0
  4. P2 13:08NJDD. Mercer3–1
  5. P2 17:40NJDJ. HughesSH3–2
  6. P3 17:45NJDT. MeierPP3–3
  7. SO 00:00MTLC. CaufieldPP3–3
+4 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
MTL
54 shots
6
Final
108 shots
NJD
54 shots
5
MTL attackNJD attack
MTL NJD Goal

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

54
shots · 6 in
54
shots · 5 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
MTLNJD
1 / 4
0.87 xG
High danger
1 / 5
1.26 xG
1 / 23
2.65 xG
Medium
0 / 22
2.33 xG
1 / 35
0.73 xG
Low
2 / 31
0.49 xG

High-danger looks: MTL 1 of 4, NJD 1 of 5.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
J. Allen
+1.3
NJD · 26/29
B+
J. Dobes
+1.1
MTL · 35/38
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Canadiens edge the Devils in a shootout

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 9–15
  1. 15:58MTLJ. Struble(C. Caufield, A. Xhekaj)1–0
2ndshots 8–10
  1. 08:12MTLI. Demidovpower play(C. Caufield, N. Suzuki)2–0
  2. 09:28MTLL. Hutson3–0
  3. 13:08NJDD. Mercer(T. Meier, N. Hischier)3–1
  4. 17:40NJDJ. Hughesshorthanded(J. Bratt, J. Siegenthaler)3–2
3rdshots 10–12
  1. 17:45NJDT. Meierpower play(J. Hughes, D. Hamilton)3–3
OTshots 2–1no goals
    SO
    1. 00:00MTLC. Caufieldpower play3–3
    2. 00:00NJDJ. Brattpower play3–3
    3. 00:00MTLI. Demidovpower play3–3
    4. 00:00NJDJ. Hughespower play3–3
    5. 00:00MTLO. Kapanenpower play3–3

    score reads MTL–NJD

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    4.25
    MTL chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −0.3
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    0.997
    MTL puck luck
    About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
    51.7%
    Shot attempts
    Over half — they had the puck more
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    4.25Expected goals4.08
    MTL 51% of the chance quality
    29Shots on goal38
    4High-danger chances5
    62All attempts (Corsi)58
    Adjusted for score: MTL 49% · NJD 51%
    Faceoffs · NJD won63%off47%neu63%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    MTL1 / 4 · 0.87 xG
    NJD1 / 5 · 1.26 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    MTL1 / 23 · 2.65 xG
    NJD0 / 22 · 2.33 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    MTL1 / 35 · 0.73 xG
    NJD2 / 31 · 0.49 xG

    NJD went 0-for-22 from medium danger on 2.33 expected goals — 2.3 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    MTL
    4 G · 4.25 xG · -0.3
    NJD
    3 G · 4.08 xG · -1.1
    012345

    MTL finished -0.3 against expected, NJD -1.1.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    MTL
    WRIST2/31
    SNAP1/7
    SLAP0/5
    TIP IN0/4
    BACKHAND0/2
    DEFLECTED0/0
    OTHER0/13
    NJD
    WRIST2/28
    SNAP1/7
    SLAP0/5
    TIP IN0/4
    BACKHAND0/4
    DEFLECTED0/1
    OTHER0/9
    MTL
    NJD
    Off the rush
    3 G on 39
    3.55 xG
    3 G on 34
    3.15 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 3
    0.30 xG
    0 G on 3
    0.41 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: MTL went 2-for-31, NJD 2-for-28. MTL scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    J. Dobes
    MTL · 35/38 · .921
    +1.1
    saved above expected
    B+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/51.3+0.3
    Medium0/222.3+2.3
    Low2/310.5-1.5

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    J. Allen
    NJD · 26/29 · .897
    +1.3
    saved above expected
    B+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/40.9-0.1
    Medium1/232.6+1.6
    Low1/350.7-0.3

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    108 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    MTL
    54 shots
    6
    Final
    108 shots
    NJD
    54 shots
    5
    MTL attackNJD attack
    MTL NJD Goal

    Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

    Each club shoots toward its own end — MTL left, NJD right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    J. Hughes
    #86 · C · NJD
    1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 26:26 on ice · +1
    C. Caufield
    #13 · R · MTL
    0 G · 2 A · 5 SOG · 22:15 on ice
    T. Meier
    #28 · R · NJD
    1 G · 1 A · 7 SOG · 20:06 on ice · +2
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Sat, Apr 4
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 12, 10:27 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model projects 2.5 to 2.7 goals and gives the Devils 54% win probability. This is a coin flip.

    Montreal and New Jersey are separated by nothing in underlying play. The Canadiens shoot 48.0% expected goals to the Devils' 50.0%, while New Jersey dominates possession slightly (51.0% Corsi% versus Montreal's 49.0%). The gap matters, but barely.

    What shapes this game is variance. New Jersey's PDO sits at 0.971—the Devils are running cold, primed for positive regression. Montreal's PDO is 1.018, the inverse problem: the Canadiens are running hot. That gulf isn't permanent, and one night of normal play could swing the needle sharply.

    Cole Caufield anchors Montreal's offense. He's generating 0.97 xG/60 with 33 goals and a 20.0% shooting rate, paired with 16 assists. Mike Matheson represents Montreal's defensive liability. Oliver Kapanen fills the secondary role: 0.83 xG/60, 19 goals, and a 17.8% shooting rate that signals room for regression or reward.

    Timo Meier drives New Jersey's creation, registering 1.08 xG/60—higher than Caufield's underlying rate—but has scored only 13 goals on 15 assists with a 6.7% shooting rate that screams underperformance. Jack Hughes contributes at 0.88 xG/60 with 18 goals and an 11.5% shooting rate offering little variance upside. Johnathan Kovacevic is New Jersey's defensive weak point.

    The tension is clean: Caufield's 1 high-danger goal against Meier's 3. New Jersey's shot luck versus Montreal's shot luck. The models see a fair fight because neither team has leveraged its edges decisively. The scoreboard—and the shooting rates that separate them—will decide which edge runs true.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    NJD 54%
    54%
    NJD
    Model favorite
    46%
    54%
    MTL50NJD

    NJD by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score MTL 2.5–2.7 NJD; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    MTL← edge
    edge →NJD
    48.0%50.0%
    49.0%51.0%
    2.412.45
    2.622.50
    2.241.66
    1.962.23
    1.0180.971

    NJD holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.018 vs 0.971) says MTL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    MTL
    8-2-0
    +15 GD · 2d rest
    NJD
    7-3-0
    +9 GD · 2d rest
    1.018
    MTL PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    0.971
    NJD PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Regression watch
    • The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    • The Canadiens' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    MTL
    Expected in goal
    J. Fowler
    2 days rest.917 last start
    Backup Jakub Dobes · +17.3 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    NJD
    Expected in goal
    J. Allen
    2 days rest.906 last start
    Backup Jacob Markstrom · -11.9 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    MTL
    Cole Caufield33G 16A
    0.97 xG/60 · 1 HD · 20.0% sh
    Oliver Kapanen19G 12A
    0.83 xG/60 · 4 HD · 17.8% sh
    NJD
    Timo Meier13G 15A
    1.08 xG/60 · 3 HD · 6.7% sh
    Jack Hughes18G 17A
    0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.5% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page