The Penguins earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Pittsburgh's 9-4 win was more than just a blowout—it was an offensive explosion that exceeded even the Penguins' dominant underlying play. They controlled 65% of 5v5 expected goals (3.86–2.10) and 57% of shot attempts (31–23), commanding the game at every level. They also scored 5.14 goals beyond that baseline, turning control into carnage.
The Penguins' rush attack was the surgical instrument. Seven goals from rush chances, compared to Florida's two from 15 attempts, proved the difference between sustained pressure and desperation. Pittsburgh's power play was equally clinical: three goals on nine shots (0.77 expected goals), a conversion rate that eviscerates typical benchmarks. They also plundered three low-danger tallies—goals the opposing goalie is supposed to save.
Florida's net was defenseless. D. Tarasov surrendered 1.50 goals above expected with limited work. S. Bobrovsky gave up 3.63 more runs than the defensive effort warranted, finishing at 0.684 save percentage. A. Silovs (PIT) posted 0.826 SV% and allowed just 1.90 goals above expected, a clean line that mirrored Pittsburgh's play.
The inflection point arrived in the third when Mackie Samoskevich fired from the high slot (10:46, P3). Florida's panic mounted from there. The Panthers overperformed their expected goals by 1.90 runs—a hint of puck-luck—but from a 2.10 xG baseline, that redemption was stillborn.