The Lightning earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Lightning won 3-1, but expected goals suggested a tighter margin. Tampa Bay's 3.11 xG to Boston's 2.72 narrowed what the scoreboard called a comfortable 2-goal advantage—a gap that tells you more about the Bruins' execution than the Lightning's dominance.
Boston did itself no favors underperforming their expected goals by 1.72. They generated chances; they just didn't finish them. A. Vasilevskiy, meanwhile, overperformed by 1.72 in the opposite direction, posting a 0.955 save percentage that matched his team's quality of shot-taking.
The Lightning controlled the shot-attempt share (51%, 23-22 on goal), but the real edge was in shot quality. They generated 0.066 expected goals per shot to Boston's 0.046. That efficiency showed on the rush: two goals on 19 chances, a conversion rate the Bruins never threatened. Tampa Bay also crashed harder on rebounds, converting one of four opportunities; Boston created five and converted none.
Nikita Kucherov delivered the turning point—a snap shot from the top of the circles at 18:27 of the third period—and the Lightning's depth pieces added the polish. J. Moser contributed an assist across 21:42, as did J. Guentzel in 21:05. D. Raddysh, the goal scorer in 20:41, rounded out the three stars.
J. Swayman stopped 1.11 goals above expected (0.909 SV%), a respectable outing in a losing effort. He wasn't the problem. The problem was Boston's inability to convert the quality looks they earned.
