The Capitals earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Toronto held 52% of shot attempts yet lost 4-0—a disparity that reveals how ruthlessly the Capitals converted their chances. Washington's shot quality (0.072 xG/shot vs. 0.046) overwhelmed Toronto's volume; L. Thompson's +2.78 performance in goal sealed the result.
The underlying xG (3.46–2.78 Capitals) suggests a closer game than the scoreline, but the Maple Leafs underperformed their xG by 2.78 goals. They generated quality looks—particularly off the rush and from rebound opportunities—and converted none of them. Cole Hutson's wrist shot from the high slot (P3, 16:10) exemplified the Capitals' clinical execution, crystallizing their dominance.
Thompson's goaltending was the story. Facing 22 shots, he saved all 22 and posted a +2.78 performance against expected, the kind of save percentage that transforms a competitive xG battle into a blowout. J. Woll on the other end allowed three goals on 17 attempts (0.824 SV%).
Washington's scoring was distributed. M. Fehérváry (1G, 1A, 18:16) and D. Strome (1G, 1A, 16:34) both scored; T. Wilson (1A, 18:51) added an assist. The Capitals exploited the rush—4 goals on 27 rush chances.
Toronto's best offensive sequence came from crashing the net. They created 4 rebound opportunities and scored on none, leaving Thompson unbeaten.
