The Avalanche won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
Washington generated superior expected goals and more high-danger chances but lost 3-2 in overtime — M. Blackwood's net turned away every chance that mattered.
The Capitals held 48% of shot attempts but generated 3.07 expected goals, a quality advantage. Colorado generated 2.88 xG on 24 shots. Washington's danger per attempt was higher: 0.073 xG per shot versus Colorado's 0.052. Yet on high-danger chances, Washington managed 0-for-5. Colorado converted 2-for-4.
M. Blackwood stopped 1.07 goals above expected, including a perfect 5-for-5 save rate on high-danger shots. L. Thompson saw more danger per attempt but saved only 21 of 24.
The Capitals' efficiency off the rush (2 goals on 26 chances) matched Colorado's (3 goals on 25 chances). The advantage dissolved in the scoring areas. Washington generated 5 high-danger chances to Colorado's 4. B. Nelson tipped in at 01:22 of overtime — the game's final word.
This was a variance clinic. Washington's underlying metrics suggested they'd escape with a point. The Capitals had the shot quality and quantity to demand it. Instead, they encountered an opponent that didn't need many chances, plus a goaltender who stopped everything dangerous.