WARNINGVGK
C. Hart on a back-to-back
C. Hart projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · VGK at PIT
Golden Knights at Penguins: no daylight between these two
The model's leanTue, Nov 3
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelNov 3, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model's projected finish is Golden Knights 3.3, Penguins 3.2, which is about as close as a game gets. The interesting part is how each side has been getting there.
The Penguins are the team with the scoreboard problem. They have been outscored by seven over their last 10 games, yet their shot attempts are nearly level with the Golden Knights'. Their PDO, a blend of shooting and save luck, is running cold, and the model expects it to bounce back.
The Golden Knights own the underlying play, and their expected-goals share at five-on-five is the clearest case for them. Even so, the model gives them only a 52% win probability. The season five-on-five numbers below show where each side's edges come from.
| Metric | Golden Knights | Penguins |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 55.0% | 49.7% |
| Shot attempts share | 51.5% | 52.3% |
| PDO | 0.996 | 0.984 |
Rest is the other lean. The Penguins come in on 2 days of rest, and the Golden Knights on 0 days.
C. Hart projects to start on the second night of a back-to-back, so watch for a backup start or tired legs. On the numbers, Hart has a goals-saved-above-expected figure of +0.0 over nine games, which means he has been exactly at expectation. His save percentage is 89.3%.
S. Murashov has played five games with a goals-saved-above-expected figure of -2.9, meaning he has allowed more goals than his shots should have produced. His save percentage is 87.1%.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
VGK 52%
52%
VGK
Model favorite
52%
48%
VGK50PIT
VGK by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score VGK 3.3–3.2 PIT; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
VGK← edge
edge →PIT
55.0%49.7%
51.5%52.3%
3.353.33
2.743.37
3.383.29
2.883.43
0.9960.984
VGK holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.996 vs 0.984) says VGK has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
VGK
4-4-2
-1 GD · 0d rest
PIT
3-5-2
-7 GD · 2d rest
0.996
VGK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.984
PIT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Golden Knights own the underlying play
The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 55.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.7%.
WARNINGPIT
Regression watch: Penguins
The Penguins' PDO is 0.984 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICALPIT
Rest edge
The Penguins come in on 2 days of rest; the other side on 0.
Push the pace early against tired legs.
Where the edges live
- The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 55.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.7%.
Regression watch
- The Penguins' PDO is 0.984 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 55.0% 5v5 xG vs 49.7%.
- Goalie matchup: C. Hart (+0.0 GSAx in 9 GP, 89.3% SV) vs S. Murashov (-2.9 GSAx in 5 GP, 87.1% SV).
- C. Hart is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
- The Penguins are underwater at -7 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Penguins' PDO is 0.984 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Penguins have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
VGK
vs BOS · Mon, Nov 2
Expected in goal
C. Hart
back-to-back.926 last start65:00 played
Backup Adin Hill · -3.1 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- J. Eichel24:57
- M. Gatcomb09:19
- B. Howden15:59
- T. Connelly14:17
- N. Dowd09:43
- B. Bowman05:20
- J. Rondbjerg11:02
- T. Hertl13:48
- I. Barbashev15:16
- M. Stone21:35
- W. Karlsson19:26
- M. Marner24:25
Defence · 6
- B. McNabb21:05
- R. Andersson21:54
- J. Lauzon18:18
- N. Hanifin23:44
- S. Theodore23:46
- D. Coghlan12:06
PIT
vs MTL · Sat, Oct 31
Expected in goal
S. Murashov
2 days rest.815 last start57:40 played
Backup Arturs Silovs · +0.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- N. Robertson09:59
- T. Novak17:58
- C. Dewar12:30
- H. Lapierre10:34
- V. Koivunen13:16
- B. Lizotte12:55
- E. Chinakhov14:22
- A. Kuzmenko10:00
- R. Rakell21:58
- E. Malkin17:54
- B. Kindel16:48
- S. Crosby20:23
Defence · 6
- K. Korczak18:21
- S. Stastney15:16
- S. Girard21:01
- K. Letang18:44
- E. Karlsson23:37
- D. Carlile18:44
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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