TACTICAL
The Wild own the underlying play
The Wild own the underlying play — 58.2% 5v5 xG vs 41.6%.
Preview · MIN at PHI
The Wild are the model's lean over the Flyers — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanTue, Nov 3
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelNov 3, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model leans toward Minnesota, and the Wild's underlying play is the reason. Philadelphia's best argument is that its results are due to turn.
The model gives Minnesota a 57% win probability. The Wild own the expected goals share at five-on-five (xG%) at 58.2%, and Philadelphia trails well behind them. Minnesota also drives more shot attempts (Corsi%), at 52.3%, so expect the territory to tilt toward the Wild.
Philadelphia's PDO, a team's shooting and save percentages added together, sits at 0.976. That is running cold, and it is due for positive regression. Minnesota is on the other side, with a PDO of 1.017 running hot, so some regression is expected there too.
The goalies point the same way. J. Wallstedt has the GSAx edge, at +10.2 goals saved above expected across 14 games, and his save percentage is 92.0%. D. Vladar sits at -1.4 GSAx in eight games, with a save percentage of 88.5%. Wallstedt is 11.6 goals above his counterpart this season.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
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Win probability
The model's lean
MIN 57%
57%
MIN
Model favorite
57%
43%
MIN50PHI
MIN by 14 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score MIN 3.5–3.0 PHI; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
MIN← edge
edge →PHI
58.2%41.6%
52.3%44.0%
4.052.54
2.913.56
3.252.19
2.253.31
1.0170.976
MIN holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.017 vs 0.976) says MIN has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
MIN
6-2-2
+8 GD · 1d rest
PHI
4-4-2
-2 GD · 1d rest
1.017
MIN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.976
PHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Wild drive Corsi at 52.3%
The Wild drive Corsi at 52.3% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGPHI
Regression watch: Flyers
The Flyers' PDO is 0.976 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGMIN
Regression watch: Wild
The Wild's PDO is 1.017 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Wild own the underlying play — 58.2% 5v5 xG vs 41.6%.
- The Wild drive Corsi at 52.3% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Flyers' PDO is 0.976 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Wild's PDO is 1.017 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Wild own the underlying play — 58.2% 5v5 xG vs 41.6%.
- The Wild drive Corsi at 52.3% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Wallstedt (+10.2 GSAx in 14 GP, 92.0% SV) vs D. Vladar (-1.4 GSAx in 8 GP, 88.5% SV).
- J. Wallstedt has the GSAx edge — 11.6 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Flyers' PDO is 0.976 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
MIN
vs WSH · Sun, Nov 1
Expected in goal
J. Wallstedt
1 day rest.963 last start60:00 played
Backup Calvin Pickard · -2.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Brink16:11
- M. Boldy21:16
- Y. Trenin12:02
- J. Eriksson Ek19:33
- T. Pitlick09:59
- B. Coleman16:14
- D. Yurov14:51
- R. Hartman13:38
- M. McCarron13:38
- M. Shabanov14:11
- N. Sturm09:22
- K. Kaprizov21:43
Defence · 6
- O. Maatta19:10
- Z. Bogosian18:25
- J. Brodin23:55
- M. Kiersted11:44
- Q. Hughes29:41
- D. Spacek12:27
PHI
vs UTA · Sun, Nov 1
Expected in goal
D. Vladar
1 day rest.864 last start60:00 played
Backup Joseph Woll · +3.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- T. Konecny13:58
- S. Couturier15:14
- C. Dvorak17:03
- N. Cates13:02
- M. Michkov15:31
- T. Zegras17:08
- N. Acciari16:04
- C. Knuble10:44
- T. Foerster13:21
- O. Tippett13:31
- D. Barkey15:49
- P. Martone14:32
Defence · 6
- T. Sanheim23:28
- C. York20:57
- J. Drysdale21:26
- N. Seeler17:27
- S. Benoit15:16
- O. Bonk17:47
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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