TACTICAL
A genuine coin flip
Win probability splits 52%–48% — margins decide this one.
Preview · STL at NYR
Blues at Rangers: a genuine coin flip
The model's leanTue, Nov 3
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelNov 3, 9:02 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a STL 3.0 - 3.1 NYR game with the Rangers at 52% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- A genuine coin flip. Win probability splits 52%–48% — margins decide this one.
Form Check
- The Blues are the hotter team by points pace (6-4-0 over their last 10).
- The Rangers are underwater at -9 goal differential over their last 10.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | STL | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 50.7% | 50.4% |
| Corsi% | 49.2% | 48.7% |
| PDO | 0.992 | 0.994 |
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: J. Hofer (+4.7 GSAx in 10 GP, 91.6% SV) vs D. Garand (+1.1 GSAx in 11 GP, 89.6% SV).
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
NYR 52%
52%
NYR
Model favorite
48%
52%
STL50NYR
NYR by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score STL 3.0–3.1 NYR; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
STL← edge
edge →NYR
50.7%50.4%
49.2%48.7%
3.033.19
2.953.15
3.143.00
3.003.07
0.9920.994
STL holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.992 vs 0.994) says NYR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
STL
6-4-0
+6 GD · 2d rest
NYR
3-6-1
-9 GD · 1d rest
0.992
STL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.994
NYR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
Things to watch
- Goalie matchup: J. Hofer (+4.7 GSAx in 10 GP, 91.6% SV) vs D. Garand (+1.1 GSAx in 11 GP, 89.6% SV).
- The Blues are the hotter team by points pace (6-4-0 over their last 10).
- The Rangers are underwater at -9 goal differential over their last 10.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
STL
vs DET · Sat, Oct 31
Expected in goal
J. Hofer
2 days rest.852 last start59:28 played
Backup Jordan Binnington · -6.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- A. Toropchenko10:36
- D. Dvorsky11:03
- R. Thomas23:48
- J. Snuggerud18:59
- P. Suter12:02
- J. Berggren12:08
- A. Kaskimaki10:40
- J. Neighbours16:51
- C. McMichael17:05
- D. Holloway16:56
- M. McTavish16:39
- P. Buchnevich14:21
Defence · 6
- T. Lindstein10:14
- P. Broberg27:09
- C. Fowler21:32
- B. Carlo21:22
- A. Jiricek20:22
- J. Barron16:00
NYR
vs EDM · Sun, Nov 1
Expected in goal
D. Garand
1 day rest.870 last start57:50 played
Backup Igor Shesterkin · +6.3 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Miller20:12
- A. Lafrenière17:48
- T. Raddysh07:37
- P. Dorofeyev17:35
- E. Tolvanen11:44
- T. Kartye17:24
- O. Bjorkstrand13:44
- N. Laba12:09
- L. Glendening07:33
- W. Cuylle16:28
- M. Zibanejad20:08
- G. Perreault18:09
Defence · 6
- B. Schneider19:39
- A. Smits15:25
- A. Fox23:44
- M. Pettersson20:06
- V. Gavrikov20:34
- S. Morrow15:02
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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