TACTICAL
The Canadiens own the underlying play
The Canadiens own the underlying play — 50.4% 5v5 xG vs 45.6%.
Preview · WPG at MTL
The Canadiens are the model's lean over the Jets — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanTue, Nov 3
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelNov 3, 9:02 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a WPG 3.1 - 3.5 MTL game with the Canadiens at 55% win probability.
Keys to the game
- The Canadiens own the underlying play . The Canadiens own the underlying play — 50.4% 5v5 xG vs 45.6%.
- The Canadiens drive Corsi at 53.7% . The Canadiens drive Corsi at 53.7% — expect territorial tilt.
- Regression watch: Canadiens. The Canadiens' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
Form Check
- The Canadiens are the hotter team by points pace (8-1-1 over their last 10).
- The Jets are underwater at -18 goal differential over their last 10.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | WPG | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 45.6% | 50.4% |
| Corsi% | 47.8% | 53.7% |
| PDO | 0.991 | 1.024 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Canadiens own the underlying play — 50.4% 5v5 xG vs 45.6%.
- The Canadiens drive Corsi at 53.7% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Canadiens' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: S. Skinner (+0.0 GSAx in 10 GP, 88.7% SV) vs J. Fowler (+9.4 GSAx in 8 GP, 93.2% SV).
- J. Fowler has the GSAx edge — 9.4 goals above his counterpart this season.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
MTL 55%
55%
MTL
Model favorite
45%
55%
WPG50MTL
MTL by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score WPG 3.1–3.5 MTL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
WPG← edge
edge →MTL
45.6%50.4%
47.8%53.7%
3.003.36
3.573.31
2.273.29
3.603.00
0.9911.024
MTL holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.991 vs 1.024) says MTL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
WPG
1-7-2
-18 GD · 1d rest
MTL
8-1-1
+11 GD · 2d rest
0.991
WPG PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.024
MTL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Canadiens drive Corsi at 53.7%
The Canadiens drive Corsi at 53.7% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGMTL
Regression watch: Canadiens
The Canadiens' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICALWPG
S. Skinner was beatable last time out
S. Skinner stopped just 70.6% in his last start.
Where the edges live
- The Canadiens own the underlying play — 50.4% 5v5 xG vs 45.6%.
- The Canadiens drive Corsi at 53.7% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Canadiens' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Canadiens own the underlying play — 50.4% 5v5 xG vs 45.6%.
- The Canadiens drive Corsi at 53.7% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: S. Skinner (+0.0 GSAx in 10 GP, 88.7% SV) vs J. Fowler (+9.4 GSAx in 8 GP, 93.2% SV).
- J. Fowler has the GSAx edge — 9.4 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Canadiens are the hotter team by points pace (8-1-1 over their last 10).
- The Jets are underwater at -18 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Canadiens' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
WPG
vs CAR · Sun, Nov 1
Expected in goal
S. Skinner
1 day rest.706 last start29:09 played
S. Skinner started last game and was relieved by C. Stevenson (30:51 of it).
Backup Nico Daws · +0.3 GSAx this season
Forwards · 11
- A. Iafallo13:59
- G. Vilardi16:57
- A. Lowry14:21
- D. Mercer15:40
- I. Rosen10:36
- M. Barron14:47
- M. Scheifele20:08
- V. Björck15:06
- N. Niederreiter14:26
- K. Connor19:16
- C. Perfetti15:34
Defence · 7
- D. DeMelo19:59
- N. Pionk22:55
- H. Fleury16:43
- M. Ferraro13:55
- D. Samberg21:39
- E. Salomonsson19:19
- T. Bauer08:25
MTL
vs PIT · Sat, Oct 31
Expected in goal
J. Fowler
2 days rest.862 last start60:00 played
Backup Jakub Dobes · -5.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- C. Caufield18:56
- A. Newhook18:54
- J. Anderson14:58
- J. Slafkovský17:23
- C. Kreider12:10
- P. Danault19:57
- O. Beck08:51
- F. Xhekaj07:34
- J. Evans17:40
- Z. Bolduc16:36
- A. Texier14:32
- O. Kapanen11:04
Defence · 6
- K. Guhle24:05
- A. Engstrom10:58
- A. Carrier21:19
- L. Hutson23:47
- N. Dobson20:49
- A. Xhekaj13:40
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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