Boston Bruins
5-on-5 · model-estimatedBruins: a outshot/run-and-gun team (0.0% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (2 signals).
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- Elite top-end talent: Viktor Arvidsson.
- Out-chanced at 5v5 (0.0% xG share).
- Leaky penalty kill (77% kill rate).
PDO 1.022 — running hot at 5v5; expect negative regression.
Team finishing is +21 goals above xG — shooting luck likely to cool.
Flags mark gaps between process and result likely to move toward the mean.
- Viktor Arvidsson
- David Pastrnak
- Charlie McAvoy
- Hampus Lindholm
- Jonathan Aspirot
- Morgan Geekie
- Pavel Zacha
- Elias Lindholm
- Casey Mittelstadt
- Fraser Minten
- Alex Steeves
- Michael Eyssimont
- Mark Kastelic
- Mason Lohrei
- Tanner Jeannot
- Henri Jokiharju
- Marat Khusnutdinov
- Sean Kuraly
- Lukas Reichel
- Nikita Zadorov
- Andrew Peeke
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman | 55 | 90.770 | — | +0.0 |
| Joonas Korpisalo | 31 | 89.420 | — | +0.0 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David PastrnakR | 77 | 15.9 | +60.20 | +3.8 |
| Morgan GeekieC | 81 | 13.7 | +57.60 | +2.9 |
| Viktor ArvidssonL | 69 | 12.1 | +78.60 | +2.6 |
| Pavel ZachaC | 78 | 12.3 | +53.20 | +2.4 |
| Charlie McAvoyD | 69 | 17.5 | +64.50 | +2.4 |
| Elias LindholmC | 69 | 13.3 | +49.20 | +1.6 |
| Casey MittelstadtC | 71 | 13.0 | +51.20 | +1.6 |
| Fraser MintenC | 82 | 12.6 | +55.70 | +1.5 |
| Hampus LindholmD | 67 | 16.6 | +63.40 | +1.1 |
| Marat KhusnutdinovC | 77 | 12.4 | +36.50 | +0.9 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 21st-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
23 games with more rest than the opponent · 25 with fewer · 34 even.
6 games in 11 days with 5,379 travel miles
Feb 15 – Feb 25
6 games in 11 days with 5,152 travel miles
Jan 18 – Jan 28
6 games in 13 days with 5,826 travel miles
Oct 10 – Oct 22