STRENGTHBOS
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 34 rush shots worth 3.01 xG.
Morning report · executive brief
Boston Bruins
◆ By the ModelWed, Nov 4Latest file · Mon, Nov 22026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Bruinsactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Mon, Nov 2): VGK 2 - 3 BOS (SO) — a shootout win over the Golden Knights.
The model's top flag from that game: dangerous off the rush — 2 goals on 34 rush shots worth 3.01 xG.
Season complete · final ledger
99
Games filed
56
Wins (all)
43
Losses (all)
328
Goals for
292
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · VGK @ BOS · Mon, Nov 2
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionVGKBOS
Offense
▸Basis
VGK Created 3.11 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 4 high-danger shots (0.91 xG) and 19 rush shots (1.64 xG).
BOS Created 3.74 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (1.00 xG) and 34 rush shots (3.01 xG).
B-
82
A
94
Defense
▸Basis
VGK Allowed 3.74 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (1.00 xG) and 34 rush shots (3.01 xG).
BOS Allowed 3.11 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 4 high-danger shots (0.91 xG) and 19 rush shots (1.64 xG).
F
56
D+
68
Transition
▸Basis
VGK Rush shots 19–34, rush xG 1.64–3.01 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
BOS Rush shots 34–19, rush xG 3.01–1.64 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
F
54
A
96
Special teams
▸Basis
VGK 1-for-3 on the power play (33%; league ≈21%) with 0.58 PP xG.
BOS 1-for-3 on the power play (33%; league ≈21%) with 1.39 PP xG.
B+
89
A+
100
Goaltending
▸Basis
VGK +1.74 goals saved above expected on 27 shots against.
BOS +1.11 goals saved above expected on 23 shots against.
A-
92
B
86
Discipline
▸Basis
VGK Took 4 penalties for 19 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.
BOS Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 4 for 19 on the other side.
F
42
A+
100
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
VGK Finishing -1.11 goals vs xG plus +1.74 GSAx of save luck = +0.63 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
BOS Finishing -1.74 goals vs xG plus +1.11 GSAx of save luck = -0.63 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
B-
80
C-
70
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
WARNINGBOS
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 19 rush shots worth 1.64 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
STRENGTHBOS
Clinical in the slot
2 goals on 5 high-danger shots (40% conversion on 1.00 xG).
LUCKBOS
Cold finishing night
Scored 2 on 3.74 xG — -1.74 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.
STRENGTHBOS
Power play cashed in
1-for-3 on the power play (33%) on 1.39 PP xG.
Warning signs
WARNINGBOS
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 19 rush shots worth 1.64 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Positive trends
STRENGTHBOS
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 34 rush shots worth 3.01 xG.
STRENGTHBOS
Clinical in the slot
2 goals on 5 high-danger shots (40% conversion on 1.00 xG).
STRENGTHBOS
Power play cashed in
1-for-3 on the power play (33%) on 1.39 PP xG.
STRENGTHBOS
Won the discipline battle
Just 3 penalties for 6 minutes vs 4 for 19 on the other side.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseAavg 86▲ IMPROVING
DefenseD+avg 54▲ IMPROVING
TransitionAavg 68▲ IMPROVING
Special teamsA+avg 68▲ IMPROVING
GoaltendingBavg 77▲ IMPROVING
DisciplineA+avg 68▲ IMPROVING
LuckC-avg 74▼ DECLINING
BOS latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
DEPTH
Load index
36/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 21st-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
40,713
road miles flown
14
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
13
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
13
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
4
Longest road trip
4,277 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d14
1d42
2d20
3+d7
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
23 games with more rest than the opponent · 25 with fewer · 34 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 11 days with 5,379 travel miles
Feb 15 – Feb 25
6 games in 11 days with 5,152 travel miles
Jan 18 – Jan 28
6 games in 13 days with 5,826 travel miles
Oct 10 – Oct 22
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach