STRENGTHBOS
Jeremy Swayman has been a season-long wall
Jeremy Swayman: +8.1 GSAx over 11 games (0.912 SV%).
Preview · VGK at BOS
The Golden Knights are the model's lean over the Bruins — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanMon, Nov 2
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelNov 2, 9:01 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a VGK 3.4 - 3.0 BOS game with the Golden Knights at 56% win probability.
Keys to the game
- Jeremy Swayman has been a season-long wall. Jeremy Swayman: +8.1 GSAx over 11 games (0.912 SV%).
- The Golden Knights own the underlying play. The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 55.6% 5v5 xG vs 47.3%.
- Regression watch: Bruins. The Bruins' PDO is 1.059 — running hot, expect some regression.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | VGK | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 55.6% | 47.3% |
| Corsi% | 51.6% | 49.1% |
| PDO | 0.996 | 1.059 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 55.6% 5v5 xG vs 47.3%.
Regression Watch
- The Bruins' PDO is 1.059 — running hot, expect some regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: A. Hill (-3.0 GSAx in 7 GP, 89.1% SV) vs M. DiPietro (+5.2 GSAx in 4 GP, 92.9% SV).
- M. DiPietro has the GSAx edge — 8.3 goals above his counterpart this season.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
VGK 56%
56%
VGK
Model favorite
56%
44%
VGK50BOS
VGK by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score VGK 3.4–3.0 BOS; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
VGK← edge
edge →BOS
55.6%47.3%
51.6%49.1%
3.393.10
2.713.45
3.473.67
2.932.40
0.9961.059
VGK holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.996 vs 1.059) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
VGK
5-4-1
+1 GD · 2d rest
BOS
7-2-1
+16 GD · 1d rest
0.996
VGK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.059
BOS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Golden Knights own the underlying play
The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 55.6% 5v5 xG vs 47.3%.
WARNINGBOS
Regression watch: Bruins
The Bruins' PDO is 1.059 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 55.6% 5v5 xG vs 47.3%.
Regression watch
- The Bruins' PDO is 1.059 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 55.6% 5v5 xG vs 47.3%.
- Goalie matchup: A. Hill (-3.0 GSAx in 7 GP, 89.1% SV) vs M. DiPietro (+5.2 GSAx in 4 GP, 92.9% SV).
- M. DiPietro has the GSAx edge — 8.3 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Bruins' PDO is 1.059 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
VGK
vs NJD · Fri, Oct 30
Expected in goal
A. Hill
2 days rest.871 last start58:12 played
Backup Carter Hart · -1.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Eichel16:21
- M. Gatcomb11:01
- B. Howden14:32
- T. Connelly16:57
- N. Dowd12:23
- B. Bowman13:21
- J. Rondbjerg12:22
- T. Hertl15:44
- I. Barbashev15:20
- M. Stone16:17
- W. Karlsson16:54
- M. Marner17:42
Defence · 6
- B. McNabb18:34
- R. Andersson24:29
- J. Lauzon18:11
- V. Heinola12:26
- N. Hanifin24:00
- S. Theodore21:14
BOS
vs CHI · Sat, Oct 31
Expected in goal
M. DiPietro
1 day rest.902 last start61:28 played
Backup Jeremy Swayman · +8.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Peterka21:15
- C. Mittelstadt14:38
- P. Zacha22:12
- E. Lindholm19:44
- M. Geekie16:23
- J. Hagens13:02
- M. Kastelic08:03
- S. Kuraly08:45
- T. Jeannot07:24
- D. Pastrnak24:48
- M. Khusnutdinov12:37
- F. Minten16:02
Defence · 6
- M. Lohrei16:59
- W. Borgen21:16
- H. Lindholm21:35
- J. Aspirot13:28
- C. McAvoy27:16
- N. Zadorov15:02
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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