Carolina Hurricanes
5-on-5 · model-estimatedHurricanes: a outshot/run-and-gun team (0.0% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (3 signals).
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- Elite top-end talent: Shayne Gostisbehere, K'Andre Miller, Sean Walker.
- Out-chanced at 5v5 (0.0% xG share).
PDO 0.984 — running cold at 5v5; due for positive regression.
Team finishing is -9 goals below xG — finishing should rebound.
Brandon Bussi sv% 89.5% is below replacement — goaltending should improve or change.
Flags mark gaps between process and result likely to move toward the mean.
- Shayne Gostisbehere
- K'Andre Miller
- Sean Walker
- Mark Jankowski
- Joel Nystrom
- Sebastian Aho
- Nikolaj Ehlers
- Andrei Svechnikov
- Seth Jarvis
- Jackson Blake
- Logan Stankoven
- Taylor Hall
- Jordan Staal
- Alexander Nikishin
- Eric Robinson
- William Carrier
- Mike Reilly
- Jaccob Slavin
- Jordan Martinook
- Jalen Chatfield
- Jesperi Kotkaniemi
- Nicolas Deslauriers
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bussi | 39 | 89.470 | — | +0.0 |
| Frederik Andersen | 35 | 87.400 | — | +0.0 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian AhoC | 79 | 13.8 | +71.60 | +3.7 |
| Nikolaj EhlersL | 82 | 13.0 | +68.30 | +3.3 |
| Andrei SvechnikovR | 79 | 13.3 | +66.60 | +3.2 |
| Seth JarvisC | 71 | 13.3 | +72.40 | +3.1 |
| Jackson BlakeR | 81 | 13.8 | +72.30 | +2.7 |
| Shayne GostisbehereD | 55 | 15.5 | +76.50 | +2.4 |
| Logan StankovenC | 81 | 13.5 | +71.00 | +2.3 |
| Taylor HallL | 80 | 12.7 | +69.10 | +2.3 |
| K'Andre MillerD | 72 | 18.9 | +75.10 | +2.1 |
| Sean WalkerD | 81 | 18.3 | +77.80 | +2.1 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 24th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
16 games with more rest than the opponent · 20 with fewer · 46 even.
6 games in 14 days with 6,373 travel miles
Nov 1 – Nov 14
6 games in 11 days with 3,840 travel miles
Oct 17 – Oct 27
6 games in 10 days with 2,765 travel miles
Oct 2 – Oct 11