WARNINGCAR
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 25 rush shots worth 2.64 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Morning report · executive brief
Carolina Hurricanes
◆ By the ModelWed, Nov 4Latest file · Tue, Nov 32026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Hurricanesactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Tue, Nov 3): CAR 1 - 4 NSH — a loss to the Predators.
The model's top flag from that game: rush defense leaked all night — Gave up 25 rush shots worth 2.64 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Season complete · final ledger
99
Games filed
66
Wins (all)
33
Losses (all)
362
Goals for
279
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · CAR @ NSH · Tue, Nov 3
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionCARNSH
Offense
▸Basis
CAR Created 3.80 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 3 high-danger shots (0.59 xG) and 35 rush shots (2.88 xG).
NSH Created 3.36 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 4 high-danger shots (1.34 xG) and 25 rush shots (2.64 xG).
A
93
A-
90
Defense
▸Basis
CAR Allowed 3.36 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 4 high-danger shots (1.34 xG) and 25 rush shots (2.64 xG).
NSH Allowed 3.80 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 3 high-danger shots (0.59 xG) and 35 rush shots (2.88 xG).
D-
60
F
57
Transition
▸Basis
CAR Rush shots 35–25, rush xG 2.88–2.64 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
NSH Rush shots 25–35, rush xG 2.64–2.88 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
B-
82
D+
68
Special teams
▸Basis
CAR 0-for-2 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 1.09 PP xG.
NSH 0-for-2 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 1.07 PP xG.
C-
70
D+
69
Goaltending
▸Basis
CAR +0.36 goals saved above expected on 19 shots against.
NSH +2.80 goals saved above expected on 30 shots against.
C+
79
A+
100
Discipline
▸Basis
CAR Took 2 penalties for 4 PIM vs 2 for 4 on the other side.
NSH Took 2 penalties for 4 PIM vs 2 for 4 on the other side.
C
75
C
75
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
CAR Finishing -2.80 goals vs xG plus +0.36 GSAx of save luck = -2.44 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
NSH Finishing +0.64 goals vs xG plus +2.80 GSAx of save luck = +3.44 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
F
55
A+
100
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
LUCKCAR
Cold finishing night
Scored 1 on 3.80 xG — -2.80 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.
STRENGTHCAR
Dangerous off the rush
1 goals on 35 rush shots worth 2.88 xG.
LUCKCAR
PDO ran cold
Single-game PDO of 0.940 — the bounces went against them tonight.
Warning signs
WARNINGCAR
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 25 rush shots worth 2.64 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Positive trends
STRENGTHCAR
Dangerous off the rush
1 goals on 35 rush shots worth 2.88 xG.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseAavg 98▼ DECLINING
DefenseD-avg 70▼ DECLINING
TransitionB-avg 94▼ DECLINING
Special teamsC-avg 80▼ DECLINING
GoaltendingC+avg 91▼ DECLINING
DisciplineCavg 75→ FLAT
LuckFavg 82▼ DECLINING
CAR latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
DEPTH
Load index
26/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 24th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
40,045
road miles flown
12
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
15
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
15
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
5
Longest road trip
4,521 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d12
1d47
2d18
3+d6
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
16 games with more rest than the opponent · 20 with fewer · 46 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 14 days with 6,373 travel miles
Nov 1 – Nov 14
6 games in 11 days with 3,840 travel miles
Oct 17 – Oct 27
6 games in 10 days with 2,765 travel miles
Oct 2 – Oct 11
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach