Columbus Blue Jackets
5-on-5 · model-estimatedBlue Jackets: a outshot/run-and-gun team (0.0% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (1 signals).
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- Elite top-end talent: Zach Werenski, Damon Severson, Mathieu Olivier.
- Out-chanced at 5v5 (0.0% xG share).
- Leaky penalty kill (76% kill rate).
Team finishing is -18 goals below xG — finishing should rebound.
Flags mark gaps between process and result likely to move toward the mean.
- Zach Werenski
- Damon Severson
- Mathieu Olivier
- Kirill Marchenko
- Charlie Coyle
- Mason Marchment
- Denton Mateychuk
- Dmitri Voronkov
- Ivan Provorov
- Danton Heinen
- Adam Fantilli
- Boone Jenner
- Sean Monahan
- Cole Sillinger
- Miles Wood
- Conor Garland
- Kent Johnson
- Zachary Aston-Reese
- Brendan Gaunce
- Jake Christiansen
- Dante Fabbro
- Isac Lundestrm
- Egor Zamula
- Erik Gudbranson
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves | 55 | 90.770 | — | +0.0 |
| Elvis Merzlikins | 30 | 88.300 | — | +0.0 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach WerenskiD | 75 | 21.2 | +87.20 | +4.4 |
| Kirill MarchenkoR | 76 | 15.1 | +63.00 | +2.9 |
| Charlie CoyleC | 82 | 13.1 | +73.20 | +2.9 |
| Adam FantilliC | 82 | 15.5 | +59.50 | +2.4 |
| Mason MarchmentL | 68 | 14.6 | +68.00 | +2.2 |
| Damon SeversonD | 71 | 18.7 | +84.20 | +2.1 |
| Denton MateychukD | 75 | 16.5 | +74.00 | +1.8 |
| Dmitri VoronkovL | 63 | 11.6 | +73.40 | +1.7 |
| Mathieu OlivierR | 61 | 13.0 | +76.50 | +1.5 |
| Ivan ProvorovD | 82 | 19.8 | +64.80 | +1.5 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 11th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
21 games with more rest than the opponent · 19 with fewer · 43 even.
6 games in 10 days with 4,908 travel miles
Feb 11 – Feb 20
6 games in 10 days with 3,665 travel miles
Jan 15 – Jan 24
6 games in 11 days with 3,560 travel miles
Jan 2 – Jan 12