LUCKCBJ
Ran hot in front of the net
Scored 7 on 3.53 xG — +3.47 above expected. Shooting luck like that regresses.
Morning report · executive brief
Columbus Blue Jackets
◆ By the ModelWed, Nov 4Latest file · Tue, Nov 32026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Blue Jacketsactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Tue, Nov 3): COL 2 - 7 CBJ — a win over the Avalanche.
The model's top flag from that game: ran hot in front of the net — Scored 7 on 3.53 xG — +3.47 above expected. Shooting luck like that regresses.
Season complete · final ledger
96
Games filed
48
Wins (all)
48
Losses (all)
295
Goals for
293
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · COL @ CBJ · Tue, Nov 3
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionCOLCBJ
Offense
▸Basis
COL Created 3.62 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game.
CBJ Created 3.53 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game.
B
84
B
83
Defense
▸Basis
COL Allowed 3.53 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game.
CBJ Allowed 3.62 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game.
D+
67
D
66
Special teams
▸Basis
COL 1-for-3 on the power play (33%; league ≈21%) with 0.60 PP xG.
CBJ 1-for-4 on the power play (25%; league ≈21%) with 0.79 PP xG.
B+
89
B-
81
Goaltending
▸Basis
COL -3.47 goals saved above expected on 24 shots against.
CBJ +1.62 goals saved above expected on 29 shots against.
F
40
A-
91
Discipline
▸Basis
COL Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.
CBJ Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.
C-
70
B-
80
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
COL Finishing -1.62 goals vs xG plus -3.47 GSAx of save luck = -5.09 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
CBJ Finishing +3.47 goals vs xG plus +1.62 GSAx of save luck = +5.09 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
F
34
A+
100
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
STRENGTHCBJ
C. Coyle led the way
2G 2A in 20:18 — the game's first star.
STRENGTHCBJ
C. Talbot tilted the crease
C. Talbot stopped 27 of 29 (0.931), +1.62 goals above expected.
TACTICALCBJ
The moment it turned
Charlie Coyle's wrist shot from the doorstep in P3 swung the game.
STRENGTHCBJ
Power play cashed in
1-for-4 on the power play (25%) on 0.79 PP xG.
Positive trends
STRENGTHCBJ
C. Coyle led the way
2G 2A in 20:18 — the game's first star.
STRENGTHCBJ
C. Talbot tilted the crease
C. Talbot stopped 27 of 29 (0.931), +1.62 goals above expected.
STRENGTHCBJ
Power play cashed in
1-for-4 on the power play (25%) on 0.79 PP xG.
STRENGTHCBJ
M. Olivier made a difference
1G 2A in 17:41 — the game's second star.
STRENGTHCBJ
Z. Werenski made a difference
2A in 24:32 — the game's third star.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseBavg 79▲ IMPROVING
DefenseDavg 58▲ IMPROVING
Special teamsB-avg 73▲ IMPROVING
GoaltendingA-avg 86▲ IMPROVING
DisciplineB-avg 76▲ IMPROVING
LuckA+avg 80▲ IMPROVING
CBJ latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
AVERAGE
Load index
68/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 11th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
37,881
road miles flown
13
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
16
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
15
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
4
Longest road trip
3,146 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d13
1d48
2d13
3+d9
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
21 games with more rest than the opponent · 19 with fewer · 43 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 10 days with 4,908 travel miles
Feb 11 – Feb 20
6 games in 10 days with 3,665 travel miles
Jan 15 – Jan 24
6 games in 11 days with 3,560 travel miles
Jan 2 – Jan 12
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model