Colorado Avalanche
5-on-5 · model-estimatedAvalanche: a outshot/run-and-gun team (0.0% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (2 signals).
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- Elite top-end talent: Nathan MacKinnon, Brock Nelson, Sam Malinski.
- Out-chanced at 5v5 (0.0% xG share).
PDO 1.021 — running hot at 5v5; expect negative regression.
Team finishing is -11 goals below xG — finishing should rebound.
Flags mark gaps between process and result likely to move toward the mean.
- Nathan MacKinnon
- Brock Nelson
- Sam Malinski
- Valeri Nichushkin
- Josh Manson
- Nick Blankenburg
- Martin Necas
- Cale Makar
- Artturi Lehkonen
- Brent Burns
- Parker Kelly
- Gabriel Landeskog
- Devon Toews
- Ross Colton
- Nazem Kadri
- Jack Drury
- Joel Kiviranta
- Gavin Brindley
- Nicolas Roy
- Brett Kulak
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood | 45 | 92.130 | — | +0.0 |
| Mackenzie Blackwood | 39 | 90.350 | — | +0.0 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnonC | 80 | 16.9 | +81.10 | +6.2 |
| Martin NecasC | 78 | 16.6 | +66.90 | +4.5 |
| Brock NelsonC | 81 | 13.8 | +86.00 | +4.0 |
| Cale MakarD | 75 | 17.8 | +67.40 | +3.4 |
| Sam MalinskiD | 82 | 16.3 | +90.70 | +2.7 |
| Valeri NichushkinR | 72 | 13.5 | +76.50 | +2.6 |
| Artturi LehkonenL | 70 | 14.5 | +72.20 | +2.5 |
| Brent BurnsD | 82 | 15.6 | +73.90 | +2.1 |
| Parker KellyC | 82 | 10.4 | +69.50 | +1.9 |
| Josh MansonD | 79 | 15.4 | +77.20 | +1.8 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 22nd-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
21 games with more rest than the opponent · 20 with fewer · 42 even.
6 games in 11 days with 4,386 travel miles
Feb 27 – Mar 9
6 games in 11 days with 4,348 travel miles
Feb 12 – Feb 22
6 games in 11 days with 4,269 travel miles
Nov 25 – Dec 5