WARNINGCOL
S. Wedgewood couldn't make the stop
S. Wedgewood allowed 4 on 9 shots (0.556) — 2.68 goals worse than expected.
Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.
Morning report · executive brief
Colorado Avalanche
◆ By the ModelWed, Nov 4Latest file · Tue, Nov 32026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Avalancheactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Tue, Nov 3): COL 2 - 7 CBJ — a loss to the Blue Jackets.
The model's top flag from that game: s. wedgewood couldn't make the stop — S. Wedgewood allowed 4 on 9 shots (0.556) — 2.68 goals worse than expected.
Season complete · final ledger
98
Games filed
64
Wins (all)
34
Losses (all)
362
Goals for
252
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · COL @ CBJ · Tue, Nov 3
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionCOLCBJ
Offense
▸Basis
COL Created 3.62 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game.
CBJ Created 3.53 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game.
B
84
B
83
Defense
▸Basis
COL Allowed 3.53 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game.
CBJ Allowed 3.62 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game.
D+
67
D
66
Special teams
▸Basis
COL 1-for-3 on the power play (33%; league ≈21%) with 0.60 PP xG.
CBJ 1-for-4 on the power play (25%; league ≈21%) with 0.79 PP xG.
B+
89
B-
81
Goaltending
▸Basis
COL -3.47 goals saved above expected on 24 shots against.
CBJ +1.62 goals saved above expected on 29 shots against.
F
40
A-
91
Discipline
▸Basis
COL Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.
CBJ Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.
C-
70
B-
80
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
COL Finishing -1.62 goals vs xG plus -3.47 GSAx of save luck = -5.09 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
CBJ Finishing +3.47 goals vs xG plus +1.62 GSAx of save luck = +5.09 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
F
34
A+
100
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
LUCKCOL
Cold finishing night
Scored 2 on 3.62 xG — -1.62 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.
STRENGTHCOL
Power play cashed in
1-for-3 on the power play (33%) on 0.60 PP xG.
WARNINGCOL
M. Blackwood gave one back
M. Blackwood finished 12/15 (0.800), -0.79 goals vs expected.
Warning signs
WARNINGCOL
S. Wedgewood couldn't make the stop
S. Wedgewood allowed 4 on 9 shots (0.556) — 2.68 goals worse than expected.
Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.
WARNINGCOL
M. Blackwood gave one back
M. Blackwood finished 12/15 (0.800), -0.79 goals vs expected.
Positive trends
STRENGTHCOL
Power play cashed in
1-for-3 on the power play (33%) on 0.60 PP xG.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseBavg 94▼ DECLINING
DefenseD+avg 66→ FLAT
Special teamsB+avg 81▲ IMPROVING
GoaltendingFavg 76▼ DECLINING
DisciplineC-avg 75▼ DECLINING
LuckFavg 79▼ DECLINING
COL latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
DEPTH
Load index
32/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 22nd-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
50,591
road miles flown
10
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
10
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
6
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
5
Longest road trip
3,760 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d10
1d54
2d13
3+d6
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
21 games with more rest than the opponent · 20 with fewer · 42 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 11 days with 4,386 travel miles
Feb 27 – Mar 9
6 games in 11 days with 4,348 travel miles
Feb 12 – Feb 22
6 games in 11 days with 4,269 travel miles
Nov 25 – Dec 5
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Reassess the crease rotation before the next start.
S. Wedgewood couldn't make the stopcoachgm