Dallas Stars
5-on-5 · model-estimatedStars: a balanced team (48.2% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (2 signals).
How to read this
This is one team through the publication's three layers. The identity row separates process — the chances a club creates and allows (, ) — from luck, which is what measures. Process predicts the future; luck predicts a correction.
Everything below follows that split: regression flags mark places where results have outrun (or trailed) the underlying play, talent tiers and the player table rank the roster by a model-estimated , and roster needs compare each position group against league average. The proxies rank things usefully but share credit with linemates — read orderings as solid and exact magnitudes as approximate.
- PROCESS
- chance creation and possession — xG%, Corsi. The repeatable part.
- RESULT
- goals, wins, special-teams conversion. What the standings see.
- LUCK
- PDO, finishing vs expected, GSAx — the part that mean-reverts.
- GOLD/RED
- regression flags: gold = watch it, red = act on it
- WAR / Impact are model-estimated proxies, not cap-validated
- Roster-need gaps are ordinal — ranked correctly, magnitudes relative
- Elite top-end talent: Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen, Roope Hintz.
- No clear soft spots flagged.
PDO 1.024 — running hot at 5v5; expect negative regression.
Team finishing is +8 goals above xG — shooting luck likely to cool.
Flags mark gaps between process and result likely to move toward the mean.
- Jason Robertson
- Miro Heiskanen
- Roope Hintz
- Esa Lindell
- Wyatt Johnston
- Mikko Rantanen
- Mavrik Bourque
- Justin Hryckowian
- Jamie Benn
- Michael Bunting
- Sam Steel
- Thomas Harley
- Nils Lundkvist
- Nathan Bastian
- Adam Erne
- Kyle Capobianco
- Matt Duchene
- Tyler Seguin
- Radek Faksa
- Oskar Bck
- Arttu Hyry
- Colin Blackwell
- Lian Bichsel
- Alexander Petrovic
- Ilya Lyubushkin
- Tyler Myers
Special teams
Goaltending
| Goaltender | GP | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger | 54 | 89.940 | — | +0.0 |
| Casey DeSmith | 30 | 90.660 | — | +0.0 |
Gaps are ordinal — needs are ranked correctly; treat the magnitude as relative, not absolute.
| Player | GP | TOI/GP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason RobertsonL | 82 | 15.4 | +87.70 | +5.1 |
| Wyatt JohnstonC | 82 | 15.2 | +64.00 | +3.7 |
| Miro HeiskanenD | 77 | 17.8 | +81.90 | +3.3 |
| Mikko RantanenR | 64 | 15.3 | +64.50 | +3.1 |
| Mavrik BourqueC | 82 | 13.9 | +73.60 | +2.3 |
| Roope HintzC | 53 | 12.9 | +75.70 | +2.0 |
| Esa LindellD | 82 | 17.8 | +76.60 | +2.0 |
| Jamie BennL | 60 | 11.3 | +56.70 | +1.4 |
| Justin HryckowianC | 81 | 11.2 | +62.70 | +1.4 |
| Michael BuntingL | 74 | 12.3 | +57.50 | +1.4 |
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Schedule load
The 2nd-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
18 games with more rest than the opponent · 19 with fewer · 46 even.
6 games in 9 days with 3,476 travel miles
Apr 2 – Apr 10
6 games in 11 days with 4,596 travel miles
Jan 4 – Jan 14
6 games in 11 days with 4,387 travel miles
Mar 3 – Mar 13